Artificial intelligence (AI) could unlock more than $1tn in economic and sustainability value across the Middle East and North Africa by 2030, according to a World Economic Forum report developed with Bain & Company.
The estimate spans five areas, including up to $200bn in sustainable financing, $370bn in sustainable investment flows enabled by the public sector and $250bn in long-term asset losses avoided.
It also includes $90bn in increased energy-sector valuations through improved sustainability performance and $100bn in sustainable projects launched through cross-sector partnerships.
The projections cover different forms of potential value, including financing flows, valuation gains and avoided losses, rather than a direct contribution to regional GDP.
The report, Unlocking Value: AI for Resilient Growth in MENA, draws on case studies and prototypes developed with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), Bahrain’s Ministry of Sustainable Development, ADNOC and Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Economy and Planning.
The World Economic Forum said the work produced five AI prototypes addressing sustainable finance, climate hazards, sustainability performance, SME financing and cross-sector collaboration. Scaling such applications would require overcoming implementation constraints, fragmented efforts and institutional capacity gaps, it said.
“The opportunity for MENA is significant, and the value will come from execution,” said Wissam Yassine, partner and Middle East Sustainability practice leader at Bain.
“Across finance, energy and the public sector, we are seeing AI use cases that can deliver measurable economic and sustainability impact. Leaders should focus on the areas with the clearest value and move quickly from pilots to scale.”
A recent MENA Chief Sustainability Officers Network survey highlighted a gap between expectations and implementation. While 89 per cent of respondents said AI had high or very high potential to advance their organisations’ environmental, social and governance goals, between 40 and 55 per cent, depending on the use case, described adoption as being at the pilot stage or operating at scale.
The report identified barriers including weak decision-making processes, difficulty treating sustainability as a source of economic value and a tendency to apply AI to incremental improvements. Many organisations also struggled to quantify financial or sustainability returns.
In banking, FAB worked with the World Economic Forum and Bain to develop Sustainable Finance Market Pulse, an AI agent that scans thousands of market signals each week to identify potential sustainable finance opportunities.
The report estimated that the tool could generate a return on investment of approximately 50 to 135 times over five years for FAB. Regional deployment of Pulse and the broader Sustainability Intelligence Platform could unlock around $200bn in additional sustainable lending by 2030, it said.
In Bahrain, the partners developed SME SMART, an AI-powered sustainability readiness assessment for small and medium-sized enterprises. The report said the tool’s adoption and implementation of its recommendations could generate $17m in cumulative valuation gains for Bahraini SMEs through 2030.
Work with ADNOC examined tools to translate climate hazard data into insights across assets and value chains, and to assess sustainability disclosures against ESG rating frameworks.
In Saudi Arabia, the collaboration produced SUSTAIN, a platform designed to match verified organisations with partnership opportunities linked to national development priorities.
The report recommended that organisations assess their AI maturity, set clear objectives, prototype priority applications and quantify their impact before determining how widely to deploy them. It also called for stronger governance, public-private partnerships and investment in capabilities.