Home Industry Energy OPEC, IEA oil demand forecasts since 2008: A comparison OPEC and the IEA, the world’s most closely watched forecasters of oil demand growth, are further apart than they have been for at least 16 years in their views on fuel use by Reuters March 12, 2024 Image credit: Getty Images Producer group Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s most closely watched forecasters of oil demand growth, are further apart than they have been for at least 16 years in their views on fuel use, according to Reuters research. The gap between the IEA, which represents industrialised countries, and the OPEC means the two are sending divergent signals to traders and investors on oil market strength in 2024 and, for the longer term, about the speed of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels. In February this year, the IEA predicted demand will rise by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report OPEC expected 2.25 million bpd. The difference is about 1 per cent of world demand. To set the difference in context, Reuters analysed the changes each agency has made to its oil demand forecasts from 2008 to 2023, and the first two months of this year. The period was chosen to give a long enough time series to draw conclusions and because it included extreme volatility in oil demand, starting with the 2008 financial crisis and ending with the 2020 pandemic and subsequent demand recovery. International oil futures hit an all-time high of almost $150 a barrel in July 2008, compared with roughly $80 now. Reuters’ analysis of 16 years of IEA and OPEC monthly reports found the 1.03 million bpd gap in February was the biggest in per-barrel terms in that period. The IEA, asked to comment on its 2024 forecast, said in an email that this year’s slowdown amounted to a return to the growth trends seen before the pandemic, and the slowdown is already visible in oil deliveries data. “We expect this to continue this year, with mobility indicators suggesting that road and air traffic are stabilising,” the IEA said, adding it could not comment on other organisations’ forecasts. OPEC did not respond immediatey to an emailed request for comment. Green shift OPEC and the IEA also disagree over the medium term. The IEA expects oil demand to peak by 2030 as the world switches to cleaner fuels. OPEC dismisses the view, and its forecasts to 2045 show no peak. Reuters compared each agency’s initial oil demand projection in a given year, usually made in the monthly report in the June or July before the year in question, with the figure given in the December of the year in question. For example, for 2008 demand, the figure given in July 2007 was compared to the figure given in December 2008. Comparing the initial forecast with the end-year forecast will show whether the first forecast was over- or under-estimated, and which agency made the biggest revision in per-barrel terms. All figures are in millions of barrels per day (bpd). Oil demand forecast comparison Number of years demand since 2008 was Underestimated Overestimated OPEC 8 8 IEA 9 7 Made biggest revision since 2008 Times IEA 7 OPEC 7 Both made similar revisions 2 Source Initial forecast End-year figure Change vs initial Biggest revision by Initial forecast was 2008 Jul-07 Dec-08 OPEC 86.94 85.83 -1.1 overestimated IEA 88.2 85.8 -2.4 IEA overestimated 2009 Jul-08 Dec-09 OPEC 87.71 84.31 -3.4 OPEC overestimated IEA 87.7 84.9 -2.8 overestimated 2010 Jul-09 Dec-10 OPEC 84.3 85.93 1.63 underestimated IEA 85.2 87.4 2.2 IEA underestimated 2011 Jul-10 Dec-11 OPEC 86.4 87.8 1.4 OPEC underestimated IEA 87.8 89 1.2 underestimated 2012 Jul-11 Dec-12 OPEC 89.5 88.8 -0.7 overestimated IEA 91 89.7 -1.3 IEA overestimated 2013 Jul-12 Dec-13 OPEC 89.5 89.79 0.29 Draw underestimated IEA 90.9 91.2 0.3 underestimated 2014 Jul-13 Dec-14 OPEC 90.7 91.13 0.43 Draw underestimated IEA 92 92.4 0.4 underestimated 2015 Jul-14 Dec-15 OPEC 92.3 92.88 0.58 OPEC underestimated IEA 94.1 94.6 0.5 underestimated 2016 Jul-15 Dec-16 OPEC 93.94 94.41 0.47 underestimated IEA 95.2 96.3 1.1 IEA underestimated 2017 Jul-16 Dec-17 OPEC 95.3 96.94 1.64 OPEC underestimated Jun-16 IEA 97.4 97.8 0.4 underestimated 2018 Jul-17 Dec-18 OPEC 97.6 98.79 1.19 OPEC underestimated Jun-17 IEA 99.3 99.2 -0.1 overestimated 2019 Jul-18 Dec-19 OPEC 100 99.8 -0.2 overestimated Jun-18 IEA 100.6 100.2 -0.4 IEA overestimated 2020 Jul-19 Dec-20 OPEC 101.01 89.99 -11.02 OPEC overestimated Jun-19 IEA 101.7 91.2 -10.5 overestimated 2021 Jul-20 Dec-21 OPEC 97.7 96.63 -1.07 overestimated Jun-20 IEA 97.4 96.2 -1.2 IEA overestimated 2022 Jul-21 Dec-22 OPEC 99.86 99.56 -0.3 overestimated Jun-21 IEA 99.5 99.9 0.4 IEA underestimated 2023 Jul-22 Dec-23 OPEC 103 102.1 -0.9 OPEC overestimated Jun-22 IEA 101.6 101.7 0.1 underestimated READ: Lower GCC growth amid oil cuts, says Oxford Economics Tags crude oil demands IEA oil OPEC You might also like Saudi Arabia posts $8bn Q3 deficit as lower oil prices weigh Will they or won’t they? 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