Worldwide semiconductor revenue to grow 13.6% in 2022: Gartner

Global semiconductor revenue is projected to total $676bn in 2022, an increase of 13.6 per cent from 2021, according to Gartner.

“The semiconductor average selling price (ASP) hike from the chip shortage continues to be a key driver for growth in the global semiconductor market in 2022, but overall semiconductor component supply constraints are expected to gradually ease through 2022 and prices will stabilize with the improving inventory situation,” said Alan Priestley, research vice president at Gartner.

Overall, the outlook for global semiconductor revenue has been increased from the previous quarter’s forecast by $37bn, to $676bn. Component supply restrictions in automotive applications will persist beyond 2023, notably in microcontrollers (MCUs), power management integrated circuits (PMICs), and voltage regulators. Slowing growth in the PC, smartphone, and server end markets is predicted to decrease the growth of semiconductor revenue in 2022 as supply and demand for semiconductors rebalance.

Chip shortage concerns continue in some sectors
In 2022, the chip shortage will continue to be a source of concern for the electronics supply chain, with various implications in main electronic equipment markets depending on semiconductor device types. Most semiconductor shortages eased in PCs and smartphones as production moved into the off season combined with increased semiconductor supply into the market. However, some semiconductor device types will continue to be in shortage in the automotive supply chain through late 2022.

“Although unit production of automotive vehicles will grow below expectation at 12.5% in 2022, semiconductor device ASPs are expected to remain high due to continued tight supply driving the automotive semiconductor market to double-digit growth (19%) in 2022,” said Priestley. “Automotive HPC, EV/HEV and advanced driver assistance systems will lead the growth in automotive electronics sectors through the forecast period.”

Memory market to lead semiconductor revenue growth in 2022
Throughout the projection period, the memory market will remain the largest semiconductor device market, accounting for 31.4 per cent of the entire semiconductor market in 2022. In the second quarter of 2022, DRAM and NAND are likely to be in short supply.

Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the NAND market will experience overstock, while DRAM will experience excess in the second half of 2023. Both markets are expected to gain revenue in 2022, with DRAM expected to grow 22.8 per cent and NAND expected to expand 38.1 per cent, thanks to megabyte shipments and higher annual average ASPs this year.

Migration to 5G expected to spur growth
Smartphone semiconductor revenue is predicted to rise 15.2 per cent in 2022, with 5G smartphone unit production expected to rise 45.3 perc ent to 808 million units, accounting for 55 per cent of all smartphones produced.

Major smartphone chipset suppliers’ aggressive migration from 4G to 5G has resulted in a temporary scarcity of 4G system-on-chip integrated baseband ICs, which began in the second half of 2021. Rising 5G-integrated baseband IC inventory will lower 5G smartphone prices, accelerating 5G penetration even more throughout the predicted period.

Read: Worldwide PC shipments declined 7.3% in first quarter of 2022: Gartner