AI could lift global trade flows by nearly 40% by 2040, WTO says

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Artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by almost 40 per cent by 2040 if supported by the right enabling policies, according to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 2025 World Trade Report published on Thursday.

The WTO Secretariat’s flagship publication said productivity gains and lower trade costs from AI could drive significant increases in both trade and global output. Under different scenarios, global trade is projected to expand by 34 per cent to 37 per cent by 2040, while global GDP could rise by 12 per cent to 13 per cent.

“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” WTO DG  Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in the foreword to the report.

AI can create new opportunities, says WTO

“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort,” she added.

The report highlights that trade can be a powerful enabler of AI-supported growth by helping economies access AI-enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs. Trade in such goods reached $2.3tn in 2023, the WTO said.

According to one scenario in the report, if low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by half and adopt AI more widely, their incomes could rise by 15 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

The report also warned of challenges, noting that quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods rose from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, largely driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods remain as high as 45 per cent in some low-income countries.

The WTO said education, training and labour market policies will be critical to prevent AI from widening inequality within economies.

The organisation underlined its role in fostering inclusive access to AI, noting that WTO members have raised 80 specific trade concerns related to AI. Dedicated discussions have also taken place under the Work Programme on E-Commerce.

Further commitments, including broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more affordable and accessible worldwide, the report said.