Investor Cody Willard on why Tesla, AI and the UAE are just getting warmed up

Investor and former TV anchor Cody Willard visited the UAE last week as part of his role as advisor for the US VIP Technology Fund from Freedom Asset Management.

A former hedge fund manager, Willard is the founder of TradingWithCody.com and has built a reputation as one of Wall Street’s more unconventional voices, equally at home on the trading floor and in front of the camera.

He’s contributed to major outlets including The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, and has been featured across nearly every major US financial news platform. He’s also best known for co-hosting Fox Business’s Happy Hour and serving as a correspondent on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

Beyond his media work, Willard has been an early investor in companies like Apple, Google, Meta, and NVIDIA, backing what he calls “revolutionary platforms” well before they went mainstream. He now spends his time tracking trillion-dollar tech trends, from AI and robotics to space.

In this interview, Willard explains why he believes we’re still in the “dial-up” phase of the AI revolution, why he’s buying Tesla and NVIDIA on the dip, and how the UAE is becoming a vital engine in the global technology boom. He also shares candid views on Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and the dangers of ignoring government debt.

You can watch the full interview here:

Further below is a transcript of the interview that has been edited for clarity:

Let’s start with your trip to the UAE. Why are you visiting this part of the world right now?

We’re here raising funds for a new investment vehicle we’ve partnered on with Freedom Asset Management. The strategy is what we call the US VIP (Very Important Person) Technology Fund. It’s mostly US-centric technology investing. It’s not all US focused, but the idea — what I’ve done for the last 25 years — is what I call “revolution investing.” Innovation is great, disruptive technologies are great, but I look for companies and trends that are changing society forever and creating trillion-dollar economies along the way. If we can get in front of the trillions of dollars that flow from these revolutions, it all works out over the long term.

And what are those trends you’re seeing right now?

The most obvious is AI. I liken it to the dial-up internet phase of the internet revolution: 56k modems, AOL, downloading a Michael Jordan screensaver that took 8 minutes. Even then, people recognised the potential of connecting billions of humans and millions of businesses. We knew broadband would eventually come and, now, we’re seeing the same early-stage potential with AI. Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT: these are already impressive. I argue with ChatGPT about Michael Jordan sometimes! But really, it’s early. We don’t yet know all the services and applications that will be built on the AI platform. It’s coming, and it’s coming fast.

One of the neatest things about investing in technology is what I call the acceleration of technology revolutions. The internet took over a decade before the smartphone changed the game. With AI, we won’t wait 10 or 12 years for the next big leap. It’s happening faster. For example, robotics will be a major part of this next phase.

So robotics is the next evolutionary step after AI?

I think so: especially humanoid robotics. This is a human-built world with elevators, stairs, infrastructure and much more. So humanoid form factors make sense. Sure, we’ll see all sorts of Star Wars-style droids too, like what NVIDIA showed recently. There will be robots cleaning Dubai’s high-rises and others helping to build them. What used to take five years to build might take 18 months. What took three years could take six months. Everything accelerates.

So tell me more about the VIP Fund then and how it approaches the investment landscape?

We focus on platforms creating trillion-dollar economies through accelerated technologies. That’s been my life’s work. I’ve been investing in Apple since March 2003 when Steve Jobs had just returned and iTunes was launching. I was invested in Google the day it went public, Meta a month after it listed, Bitcoin in 2013, and NVIDIA in 2016 when they were talking AI, driverless tech, robotics. Tesla is the most obvious humanoid robotics company now with Optimus.

We spend hundreds of hours each week reading, researching, networking and trying to understand how these technologies integrate and evolve.

And the UAE, in particular Abu Dhabi, is increasingly playing a bigger role in these spheres. MGX was launched last year with $50bn to invest in top AI and tech firms. ADIA has over $1tn under management and is also pushing hard into tech.

Rightly so. They recognise that oil has been great, but the AI revolution, and the hubs this region can create, are integral. Without the capital and vision from the UAE, the acceleration we’re seeing wouldn’t be happening this fast.

So this region could become an engine that powers these evolutions?

Perfectly put. Capital is the key. The U.S. has wealth, yes, but sovereign wealth funds here in the UAE (and GCC) are taking the lead. They understand the vision. You could call them the spark plugs, or magnetic motors, of this evolution.

Talking about spark plugs, we have to talk more about Tesla. The stock’s poor performance this year has stirred debate. Some say Elon Musk is too involved in politics and getting distracted from his core businesses. Is that fair?

Short answer is yes. He is definitely too involved in politics. It drives me crazy. Even before he got into the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) movement stuff, just the sheer volume of tweets (or Xs) was too much. In terms of the partisan politicking he’s done over the past two years, I wish he would just run his companies and change the world in the ways he’s already doing.

On the other hand, there’s so much waste in the US government — and every government out there. It’s not necessarily corruption, but there’s an agency problem: that is, governments spending money that isn’t theirs. It’s taxpayers’ money. And when it’s not your money, it’s easy to spend $300 on a hammer that should’ve cost $6.

Elon recognises the US deficit problem and ballooning debt. It’s scary. Tens of trillions of recognised debt, and hundreds of trillions in unrecognised obligations. The US has an amazing, open, transparent financial system, but someone has to break the endless debt cycle. His chainsaw-on-stage antics are annoying, but somewhat poignant. They reflect what needs to be done: cutting government waste is good for all of us.

And that brings us to Trump. His impact is undeniable.

Absolutely. Trump 2.0 isn’t that different from 1.0 in some ways. What I call the “Republican-Democrat regime”—the regulatory and governance paradigm we’ve had for the past 100 years—doesn’t shift much. Biden, Trump, liberals, conservatives—they argue more over social issues than over economic policies.

But what might be different now is what Trump is enabling Elon to do—cut out government waste and shrink budgets. If we can get government bureaucrats into the private sector to be more productive and create prosperity, everyone benefits.

You follow stocks daily. What’s the impact been from Trump, Elon, and ‘DOGE’ on US markets?

Funny you ask about Tesla’s stock over the past year. Despite a 42 per cent pullback this year, it’s still up over the last 12 months. Yes, it’s down more than half from recent highs, but after Trump’s re-election, there was a euphoric bubble. People thought Elon could do anything and Tesla would be the most valuable company in history.

And I still believe it will be, especially over the next 10 to 15 years. The only real competitor? SpaceX, which is also Elon’s company.

Markets do what they do. We go through cycles. Right now, Republicans and Democrats are both as pessimistic about the economy as they were at the COVID market bottom. In fact, polls show Democrats are more worried now than during the COVID low. That’s never happened before. I’ll take the other side of that all day.

So you see this as a buying opportunity?

Exactly. We’re putting money to work right now. We’ve got cash, and we’re deploying it daily. I love buying Tesla 50 per cent off. I wasn’t buying at $400 or $541.88. We were trimming then. But now we’ve been buying in the $220s. If it hits $200, I’ll buy more. Below $200, I’ll keep nibbling. Same with NVIDIA: I’ve been investing in NVIDIA since 2016. We’ve been buying on this pullback too. It’s the dominant AI platform and that’s not changing.

If you have a 5-, 10-, 15-year view — as Warren Buffett says — you want lower prices now so you can invest at better valuations. We’re seeing great opportunities. Just don’t go all-in at once as there’s still risk. But eventually, the fear fades, and the AI, robotics, and space evolutions generate tens of trillions in prosperity for investors who are in front of it.

Warren Buffett famously said be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

Exactly. People were greedy 60 or 90 days ago, euphoric about Trump’s win. Now, they’re fearful. I wouldn’t say I’m greedy, but I do think it’s a good buying window.

What about the other, ‘older’ big tech names: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft? Are they still relevant in this AI-driven world?

Not only are they relevant; they are leading. The capital needed to be a leader in AI today is enormous: tens of billions in spend. Even with China’s efficiencies, to build best-in-class AI applications and services, you need massive scale. Costs will drop over time, but right now, the incumbents have the edge.

I’ve owned Apple since 2003 as well as Google, Alphabet and Meta. The one I don’t own and don’t want to? Microsoft. I think their strategy of investing in OpenAI instead of building their own AI platform was a mistake. It may come back to haunt them.

Why do you think that?

Well, Microsoft has given OpenAI tens of billions of dollars and hosts them on its cloud. But OpenAI is now building competing AI agents, which are direct competitors to Microsoft Copilot, using Microsoft’s money. It’s a strange relationship.

We’ve spoken about the big tech players that are already on people’s radars. Are there companies out there flying under the radar that could still have a massive impact on the future?

Always. There are companies that haven’t even been started yet. There are high school kids right now learning AI and robotics strategies that no one’s even thought of yet. In five years, they’ll get funded with billions. In seven years, those startups will go public.

Even today, there are mid-cap revolutionary companies worth watching. I’ll name a couple we’ve been investing in recently. GitLab is one. It’s a software repository, and one of the things AI is already doing well is helping developers write code. GitLab is a direct play on that: code patches, repositories, collaboration, which are all centralised there. They’re investing heavily in AI-based code development.

Another sector that always wins in tech revolutions? Efficiency, both economic and energy. Even now, hyperscalers such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft spend billions on old-school magnetic spinning hard drives. They’re slow and not energy-efficient. Flash drives are replacing that.

Pure Storage is one company leading this change. Others exist too, but Pure Storage is cutting the cost of memory for the AI revolution, and that’s big. These mid-caps do carry more risk than the big caps — Microsoft being the exception, ironically — but we’re very selective.

Let me also say this: I don’t think small-cap tech is worth touching right now. The public market for small-cap tech is probably broken. If you’re a great early-stage company, there’s more than enough private capital, whether in the UAE or the US. When it comes to venture capital and private equity, they’re all willing to write billion-dollar cheques. So if a company is coming public as a small-cap tech stock, as a retail investor you’ve got to ask: why do they need your money?

Isn’t the market designed so that small-caps can eventually grow into large-caps though?

Yes, and I’m glad you phrased it that way. But if you’ve been public for 20 years as a tech company and you’re still a small-cap: you’ve done something wrong. You should have grown.

When I invested in Apple, it was split-adjusted $0.25 per share with $14 in net cash per share on the balance sheet: and it was trading at $12. That kind of moment doesn’t exist anymore. That company would never come public like that today.

What role does private equity play in all of this?

Private equity is interesting. Venture capital plays a bigger part in this revolution, especially with AI, robotics, and space. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi, and the US, sovereign wealth funds and VCs are writing massive cheques to keep the best companies private. If I were in private equity trying to find market inefficiencies right now. But I wouldn’t want to be in that business.

Let’s talk space. That’s another area you’re excited about. What’s caught your eye lately? We know SpaceX is the big name…

Yeah, SpaceX is the only real gorilla in the room. Bigger than NASA in some ways. NASA now relies on SpaceX. It’s an incredible success story.

I’ve spent the past five or six years networking, learning, and meeting private startups and public companies in the space sector. During the SPAC bubble (4–5 years ago), about a dozen space startups went public. Two or three of them are probably quite interesting, maybe even five or six. But again, you have to ask why they went public via SPAC and needed retail capital.

Still, the space revolution is going to be enormous. Tens of trillions of dollars will be invested in that area over the next 10–20 years. To put it into context: the AI revolution is happening now. The robotics revolution will go mainstream over the next 3–7 years. And space will hit its stride in 5–15 years. But now is the time to be studying the space economy, getting to know the players, the people, the trends so that when the time comes, you’ll know which companies will win.

Looking at the U.S. economy: are we heading into a recession? Trump’s back in. He’s aggressive on tariffs, especially with Canada. This is causing concern.

It’s not just the tariffs; it’s the inconsistency. One day it’s this, next day it’s that. Tariffing this but not that. This month ‘yes’; next month ‘no’. This country ‘yes’; that country ‘no’. It’s chaotic.

That kind of uncertainty is problematic for the economy. But none of it really derails the long-term revolutions in AI, robotics, and space.

Also, cutting government spending doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It can affect the near-term economy. Yes, there are recession risks, but even if we have a recession, I think it’ll be small. And I see that as a buying opportunity.

Over the long run, these ups and downs are just noise. The U.S. economy is mostly up. The free-ish, rule-of-law-ish market system in the US, and increasingly here in the Middle East, is beneficial to the average citizen, investor, and business. That’s not going to change.

I saw an interview you did on CNBC. You mentioned that across generations, life has generally improved. Do you still believe that, even with all the current geopolitical noise?

Oh, absolutely. Over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years, hundreds of millions of people will enter the middle class and climb the wealth curve: just like they did over the past 20 years.

Throughout human history, we’ve continuously broadened and accelerated prosperity, security, and opportunity. That will continue, eventually beyond Earth. Generations from now, people will be living on other planets, travelling at warp speed.

If you can dream it — if it’s been in Star Trek, Star Wars, or an Isaac Asimov novel — human beings can make it happen. We’re living in a miraculous time unlike any before. And I want to keep betting on that curve.