US stocks stumble on Wall Street over recession worries

Asian stocks and US Treasury yields slid, on Friday, after weaker-than-expected US factory data sparked fears of a worsening economic outlook.

The Dow Jones fell nearly 500 points (1.2 per cent), while the S&P 500 was also down 1.3 per cent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq’s index was down 2.3 per cent, and hours later, Intel announced that it would cut upto 18,000 jobs after disappointing results.

A measure of US manufacturing activity dropped to an eight-month low in July amid a slump in new orders, data on Thursday showed, coming just after separate figures revealed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased to an 11-month high last week.

The weak ISM manufacturing report in particular spooked investors, sparking broad risk-off moves across markets even after the US Federal Reserve had earlier in the week signalled a rate cut could come as soon as September.

Geopolitical tensions also weighed on sentiment, after the Israeli military confirmed that the head of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza last month, a day after the group’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.

Global stocks sell-off

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slumped 0.8 per cent in early Asia trade, tracking a sharp selloff on Wall Street.

US stock futures also extended their declines, with Nasdaq futures NQc1 losing 0.6 per cent while S&P 500 futures fell 0.4 per cent.

“It has been gloomy for two years in the manufacturing sector, but (the) ISM report shows that various measures of activity have sunk to levels not seen since the initial arrival of the pandemic,” said economists at Wells Fargo.

“Most troubling is that this suffering comes without the merit of lower prices.”

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei suffered heavy losses, tumbling 5 per cent to fall below the 37,000 level for the first time since April.

The Nikkei’s decline, which puts it on track for an over 3.5 per cent fall for the week, has largely come on the back of sharp yen gains after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Wednesday raised interest rates to levels unseen in 15 years and unveiled a detailed plan to slow its massive bond buying.

The yen JPY=EBS was last 0.15 per cent higher at 149.13 per dollar, hovering near an over four-month high, and was eyeing a 3 per cent gain for the week. Gains in the Japanese currency were further exacerbated by safety flows on Friday.

The Swiss franc CHF=EBS likewise got a lift from the risk-off mood and rose to its strongest level since early February at 0.8720 per dollar.

Also reflecting investor worries about a US economic slowdown, the 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR fell to a six-month low of 3.9440 per cent in early Asia trade, as investors poured into the safe haven bonds.

Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The two-year yield US2YT=RR, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, slumped to its lowest since May 2023 of 4.1090 per cent, and was last at 4.1215 per cent.

US data

Futures now point to a roughly 29 per cent chance of a 50-basis-point cut from the US Fed in September.

Focus now turns to the closely watched US non-farm payrolls report later on Friday for further clues on the health of the labour market and the broader economy.

“Clearly, all the focus now falls on US non-farm payrolls in the session ahead and Asia-based equity traders will be highly cognizant that they will have to hold positions through the US session with the threat of gapping risk on the Monday open,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

“With the market firmly moving to a mantra that bad news is bad news for risky assets and sentiment, where swaps are pricing an element of more emergency cuts, poor US job numbers will not be digested well at all.”

In other currencies, sterling GBP=D3 fell 0.09 per cent to $1.2724, after the Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high on Thursday.

The risk-sensitive Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NZD=D3 each fell 0.2 per cent.

Oil prices edged up as worries over escalating geopolitical tensions reignited fears of supply disruptions, with Brent up 0.4 per cent to $79.83 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.43 per cent to $76.64 per barrel.

Read: US Fed says rate cuts could come ‘soon’