Oil falls 1.5%, ends week lower on China demand fears

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Oil futures fell about 1.5 per cent on Friday, finishing the week lower on declining Chinese demand and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire agreement that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.

Brent crude settled down $1.24, or 1.5 per cent, at $81.13 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 ended $1.12, or 1.4 per cent, lower at $77.16 a barrel.

For the week, Brent was trading down more than 1 per cent while WTI fell beyond 3 per cent.

“Yesterday’s better-than-expected US GDP growth figures initially supported the crude market,” said George Khoury, global head of education and research at CFI. “However, these gains were overshadowed by concerns about declining Chinese oil demand.”

Data released last week showing that China’s total fuel oil imports dropped 11 per cent in the first half of 2024 have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China.

“The Chinese demand situation is going down the tubes here and crude oil prices are going down with it,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

China’s economy is threatening to enter a deflationary cycle, where prices will fall because of falling demand, Yawger said.

“And that is about the worst possible scenario for a country that is the largest importer of crude oil on the planet,” he said.

Meanwhile, demand from the world’s top oil consumer was also expected to ease as US refiners are preparing to cut back production as the end of the summer driving season in early September nears.

The nation’s second largest refiner, Valero Energy, said on Thursday its 14 refineries would run at 92 per cent of combined capacity in the third quarter. Valero’s refineries ran at 94 per cent in the second quarter. In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum.

A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but US officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages.

Baker Hughes’ count of US oil drilling rigs, an early indicator of future output, increased by five to 482 this week and by three in July, raising the number of rigs for the first month since March.

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