Maritime sector GHG emissions could rise 44% by 2050, reveals report

The global shipping industry, the backbone of international trade, faces a critical environmental challenge. While it keeps our shelves stocked and economies humming, it also spews out a significant chunk of greenhouse gases – a whopping 3 per cent of the world’s total, translating to 1.7 billion metric tonnes annually.

Here’s the concerning part: a recent analysis by consulting firm Arthur D. Little predicts that this figure could skyrocket to 44 per cent by 2050 if left unchecked. That’s nearly half of global emissions coming from ships alone.

The race to net zero is on

Recognising the urgency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious goals for the industry. Initially aiming for a 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2050, they’ve now set their sights even higher, pushing for net-zero emissions by the same year.

To achieve this, the IMO has implemented a plan to ensure at least 5 per cent of energy used by ships comes from alternative fuels by 2030, aiming to reach 10 per cent by the decade’s end.

A ‘green’ outlook is the path forward

Aiming to support the maritime industry’s ambitious net zero goals, ADL has published a report titled, Cleaner Seas: Mitigating Maritime Emissions.

The report, which offers a roadmap for the industry to navigate toward a cleaner future, proposes the adoption of alternative fuels as a key solution.

These sources of energy include bio-fuels such as biodiesel, bio-methane, and bio-methanol and e-fuels such as e-methane, e-methanol, green ammonia and hydrogen.

In the near term, blue methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen offer promising options, potentially cutting emissions by 20 to 60 per cent. However, they rely on fossil fuels for production, limiting their long-term sustainability.

Green fuels such as biodiesel and bio-methane offer a more sustainable option, boasting emission reductions of 60 to 80 per cent. While challenges related to scalability and environmental impact persist, the report emphasises the need to incentivise both their production and use.

Paolo Carlomagno, partner and a senior member of the Travel & Transportation practice at ADL, said: “The maritime sector plays a pivotal role in the global effort to achieve net-zero emissions. Our efforts to address maritime emissions must be swift and bold to combat the looming threat of climate change through a collaborative approach.

“Our latest viewpoint aims to highlight the importance of sustainable practices and encourage stakeholders across the value chain to embrace carbon-reduction solutions. Alternative fuels and technological innovations are critical components of this strategy, but we must also address challenges around scalability and environmental impact.”

Tech advancements to lead the way across the maritime sector

The report also highlights the crucial role of technological innovation in improving operational efficiency.

The benefits it states include that:
• Onboard carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems are showing promise, capturing over 60 per cent of a ship’s CO2 emissions.
• Wind-assisted propulsion, solar panels, and fuel cells are gaining traction as fuel-saving and emission-reducing technologies.
• Kite-sail systems and improved hull designs can further reduce fuel consumption by 20 to 40 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.

Voluntary measures

The report also explores voluntary measures being undertaken by stakeholders, such as emission-trading systems, internal carbon pricing and carbon-reduction services.

Additionally, it highlights the pioneering approach of Singapore, aiming to become the world’s largest automated terminal by 2040 and ensuring that half of its flagged vessels are “green” by 2050.

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