How geopolitical tensions will complicate WTO deal-making ahead of Abu Dhabi meeting

The head of the World Trade Organization warned on Friday that it could be difficult to strike deals at a major ministerial meeting later this month given a spate of upcoming elections, recessions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Europe.

Trade ministers gather for a meeting in Abu Dhabi from February 26 to 29, where they will try to broker global trade agreements, including reforming the 29-year-old body’s hobbled dispute system and cutting fishing subsidies.

“It’s going to be a bit tough because the conference is taking place at a difficult conjuncture,” WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva, describing negotiating positions as far apart.

“We are facing a lot of headwinds, economic and political headwinds. You will understand it’s not going to be easy.”

WTO chief on the year of elections

However, she said she felt she thought some outcomes were still possible which might include the second part of a deal on cutting subsidies for fishing that are emptying the world’s oceans and a road map for agriculture talks.

One of the challenges is multiple elections this year, she said, in comments which included the US’s November election where polls show former President Donald Trump leading.

“As you know elections do influence the way people negotiate,” she said.

During his presidency, Trump launched a trade war with China, blocked the WTO’s ability to adjudicate trade disputes and threatened to withdraw from the 164-member organisation.

Asked how the WTO would prepare for a possible return of Trump, Okonjo-Iweala said: “We will continue to strengthen ourselves… We will try to show why it is important to stay with WTO terms.”

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