The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could push up to 32.5 million people into poverty worldwide, as energy and food price shocks ripple across economies, according to a new report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

In its policy brief titled Military Escalation in the Middle East: Reversals in Global Development, Policy Response Options, released April 13, the UNDP warns that the crisis is no longer confined to the region, with its economic fallout triggering what it describes as “broad-based reversals” in global development.

The report highlights a “triple shock” — rising energy costs, food price inflation, and declining GDP growth — as the primary drivers behind the projected surge in poverty.

Energy and food inflation emerge as key risk drivers

While GDP contraction contributes to economic stress, the UNDP analysis finds that inflation — particularly in food and energy — is the dominant factor worsening poverty outcomes.

Under its most severe scenario, global extreme poverty could rise by over 18 million people, while poverty at the upper-middle-income threshold increases by 32.5 million.

The impact is especially pronounced in lower-income economies, where households spend a larger share of income on basic necessities. As prices rise, purchasing power declines sharply, amplifying welfare losses.

Net energy importers face disproportionate exposure

The report identifies 37 net energy-importing countries — spanning the Gulf, Africa, Asia and Small Island Developing States — as particularly vulnerable due to their dependence on imported fuel and limited fiscal buffers.

In these economies, the combination of high import dependence and low income levels creates structural fragility, making them more exposed to external price shocks.

Notably, the analysis shows that inflation-driven impacts on poverty are significantly larger than those caused by growth slowdown alone, underscoring the outsized role of commodity price volatility.

The escalation has already disrupted oil and gas production, trade flows, and supply chains, pushing global energy prices higher and cascading into fertilizer and food markets.

These pressures are feeding into broader industrial and technology supply chains, creating downstream effects across sectors.

Regionally, the Arab states could see GDP decline between 3.7 per cent and 6 per cent, equivalent to losses of up to $194bn, with nearly 4 million additional people at risk of falling into poverty.

Fiscal strain intensifies for developing economies

The UNDP warns that many developing countries lack the fiscal capacity to respond effectively, unlike advanced economies that can absorb shocks through subsidies and monetary policy.

Globally, offsetting the income losses caused by the crisis would require an estimated $6bn in targeted cash transfers to protect those falling below the upper-middle-income poverty line.

At the same time, governments are facing difficult trade-offs between maintaining subsidies, managing debt, and protecting long-term development spending.

The report calls for targeted and temporary cash transfers as the most effective policy response, particularly for fiscally constrained countries.

It cautions against blanket energy subsidies, noting they are often regressive and fiscally unsustainable, disproportionately benefiting higher-income households.

Alternative measures include limited subsidies or vouchers for essential energy consumption, especially in countries lacking robust social protection systems.

Call for coordinated global action

The UNDP stresses that national responses alone will not be sufficient, calling for coordinated multilateral action to address energy supply constraints, inflation risks, and liquidity challenges in developing economies.

“The cost of inaction is significant,” the report notes, warning that without timely intervention, temporary shocks could translate into long-term development setbacks.

The US military will enforce a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and it will apply to all vessel traffic regardless of flag, the US Central Command said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters on Monday.

The note said the blockade would come into effect at 14:00 GMT (18:00 UAE time) on Monday.

“Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture,” the note said.

“The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”

The blockade “encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to ports and oil terminals”, the note said, adding that humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies, and other essential goods would be permitted, subject to inspection.

Tehran has threatened to retaliate against ports of its Gulf neighbours, after weekend talks failed to reach a deal to end the war, leaving a ceasefire in jeopardy.

Etihad Airways has announced a major expansion of its mainland China network, introducing five new destinations and 28 additional weekly flights, in one of its largest capacity increases in recent years.

The move strengthens connectivity between Abu Dhabi and key Chinese economic hubs, reinforcing the airline’s long-term strategy to deepen links across Asia’s fastest-growing markets and expand its global hub role.

Major expansion across key Chinese cities

Etihad will launch services from Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport (AUH) to Shanghai Pudong (PVG), Guangzhou (CAN), Chengdu (TFU), Hangzhou (HGH) and Shenzhen (SZX). With these additions, the airline will operate 35 weekly flights across six mainland Chinese destinations, including its existing daily service to Beijing Daxing (PKX), a WAM report said.

The expansion marks a significant step up in Etihad’s presence in one of its most strategically important international markets, broadening access to China’s major commercial and industrial centres.

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All new routes will be operated by Etihad’s Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft, configured with 28 Business and 262 Economy seats, standardising widebody operations across the expanded network. The additional frequencies represent a substantial boost in capacity, aimed at meeting rising demand for travel, tourism and business between the UAE and China.

The consistent aircraft deployment across the routes is expected to ensure a uniform passenger experience while supporting operational efficiency across the growing network.

Boost to trade, tourism and cargo flows

The expanded network is expected to significantly enhance passenger and cargo movement between both countries, improving access to China’s major manufacturing, technology and commercial centres. It also strengthens Abu Dhabi’s positioning as a global transit hub connecting China with markets across the Middle East, Africa, Europe and North America.

Cargo connectivity is also expected to benefit, with improved links to high-value export and supply chain routes supporting global trade flows and industrial demand across key sectors.

All China services are integrated into Etihad’s joint venture with China Eastern Airlines, enabling coordinated schedules and improved connectivity across key gateways. China Eastern currently operates services linking Shanghai, Kunming and Xi’an with the UAE.

The expansion is also supported by Etihad’s cargo joint venture with SF Airlines, strengthening air freight links across critical trade corridors and reinforcing logistics connectivity between China and global markets.

Leadership highlights strategic importance of China

Etihad leadership said the expansion underscores deepening bilateral ties and long-term commitment to China.

Mohamed Ali Al Shorafa, chairman of Etihad Airways, said, “The ties between the UAE and China continue to flourish, with today’s announcement reflecting the enduring strength and growing promise of our cooperation. The expanded network, made possible by our long-standing partnership with China Eastern, connects unique tourism destinations with burgeoning trading hubs, delivering shared and lasting economic prosperity and value to our people.”

Antonoaldo Neves, CEO, Etihad Airways, said, “China is a strategically important market for Etihad and a key pillar of our network growth. This expansion represents a significant increase in capacity and a clear signal of our long-term commitment to the market.

By adding five new destinations and increasing frequencies, we are strengthening connectivity across one of the world’s most important economic corridors. This will support growing demand for travel and trade, while creating new opportunities for cargo, business and tourism. At the same time, we are strengthening Abu Dhabi’s role as a key destination and gateway for travel and trade, supporting the emirate’s long-term economic ambitions.”

Each destination plays a distinct economic role: Shanghai Pudong is a global financial and cargo hub, Guangzhou serves as a manufacturing powerhouse, Chengdu is emerging as a technology and innovation centre, Hangzhou is a leading digital economy hub, and Shenzhen is a major global technology and export base.

The expansion marks a significant broadening of Etihad’s footprint in China, improving access for passengers across the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas to some of China’s most dynamic economic and cultural centres via Abu Dhabi’s growing aviation hub.

Roads and Transport Authority has completed Phase II of its Marine Transport Station Waiting Area Upgrade Project, covering five key stations across Dubai as part of efforts to enhance service quality and strengthen marine mobility infrastructure.

The latest phase includes upgrades at Sheikh Zayed Road, Al Fahidi, Bluewaters, Baniyas and Al Seef stations, supporting the emirate’s broader ambition to position itself as a leading global destination for integrated mobility.

Phase II introduces design concepts inspired by Dubai’s maritime heritage, blending cultural identity with modern urban requirements. The upgrades are aligned with Dubai’s Quality of Life Strategy, with a focus on improving passenger comfort, safety and spatial efficiency.

Khalaf Belghuzooz Al Zarooni, director of Marine Transport at the Public Transport Agency, RTA, said: “The selection of Phase II stations was based on customer satisfaction assessments. The stations were equipped with air-conditioning systems, additional seating, expanded waiting areas, and entrances and exits designed to accommodate senior citizens and women. Facilities also included free Wi-Fi, public address systems, and real-time passenger information display screens for marine transport services; factors that enhance the quality of life, customer service, and foster a well-organised and visually appealing urban environment”.

Focus on safety, accessibility and inclusivity

The upgraded waiting areas incorporate enhanced safety and security features, including surveillance systems and fire safety infrastructure, in line with regulatory standards.

Al Zarooni added: “RTA applies the highest safety and security standards to provide a comfortable and secure waiting environment at marine transport stations. Waiting areas are equipped with surveillance cameras and fire alarm systems, and comply with regulatory requirements to ensure the safety and comfort of all users,”

He added: “The design of waiting areas takes into account the requirements of Dubai Universal Design Code for People of Determination, ensuring accessibility and the provision of essential facilities. This reflects RTA’s commitment to inclusivity, enhancement of the urban landscape, and the continued advancement of quality of life and service standards across the emirate.”

The completion of Phase II follows Phase I of the project, delivered in 2025, which covered Marina Promenade, Marina Terrace, Marina Walk, Marina Mall Marine Transport Station North and Marina Mall Marine Transport Station South. The earlier phase recorded high levels of customer satisfaction.

The project forms part of RTA’s broader strategy to modernise marine transport infrastructure, improve passenger experience and support Dubai’s long-term urban mobility and quality of life objectives.

The UAE’s Capital Market Authority has announced the issuance of a Virtual Assets Framework, as it seeks to establish a more integrated regulatory regime for the fast-growing sector.

The CMA said the framework is designed to keep pace with the rapid expansion of virtual assets, enhance market efficiency and support responsible innovation within a clear regulatory environment.

The framework acts as a specialised umbrella governing virtual asset activities and is structured across five modules, covering general requirements, conduct of business, alternative trading systems, anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing, and prudential requirements.

Together, these set out a legislative and supervisory structure for firms operating in the sector.

CMA expands scope of regulated activities

The regulator also expanded the scope of regulated activities to eight from three, including dealing in virtual assets as principal and agent, custody and arranging custody, arranging investment deals, investment advice, portfolio management, and operating a multilateral trading facility.

The CMA said the expansion reflects the evolution of the market and the growing range of business models tied to virtual assets, while allowing a broader set of activities to operate under rules proportionate to their risk profiles.

A dedicated alternative trading system module regulates trading facilities, including those for virtual assets, conventional securities and tokenised securities, highlighting what the authority described as a move to address the convergence between traditional and digital market structures.

The framework sets out requirements for licensing, compliance, governance, risk management and prudential standards, aligned with international best practices issued by the International Organization of Securities Commissions and the Financial Action Task Force, and based on the principle of “same activity, same risk, same regulatory outcome.”

“Virtual assets are reshaping how financial markets operate, and regulation must evolve at the same pace,” said Waleed Saeed Al Awadhi, chief executive of the CMA.

He said the framework establishes foundations for virtual asset activities in the UAE, enabling innovation within an environment that safeguards investors and supports market integrity.