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Why US rate cuts matter more for the GCC than ever

Since the GCC imports the vast majority of its consumer goods, a sliding greenback diminishes local purchasing power relative to Europe and Asia

Sam North
Sam North

15 January, 2026

Why US rate cuts matter more for the GCC than ever
Sam North, market analyst at eToro/Image: Supplied

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The escalating friction between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has moved beyond political theater into a genuine market risk event. For policymakers and investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), this “battle for the boardroom” in Washington is not a distant spectacle, it is a direct variable in domestic monetary policy. The saying ‘when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold’ still runs true, and with the UAE Dirham and Saudi Riyal pegged to the Dollar, the region effectively imports its interest rate decisions from the US. If political pressure forces the Fed into a deeper or faster cutting cycle than the economic data warrants, the transmission mechanism to the Gulf will be immediate, bringing a mixed bag of liquidity boosts and inflationary risks.

Read: Markets look through Trump-Powell drama as momentum favours risk assets

The primary implication of a “dovish-by-force” Fed is that the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) and its regional peers will likely follow suit, cutting benchmark rates in lockstep. In a vacuum, this is broadly positive for the region’s non-oil economy. We have already seen the CBUAE mirror recent moves, and a more aggressive descent in borrowing costs would act as a tailwind for credit growth.

For the UAE, particularly Dubai’s real estate sector, lower mortgage rates could sustain demand just as supply pipelines begin to swell. Cheaper liquidity is also a critical enabler for the region’s ambitious “giga-projects” and the burgeoning IPO pipeline. If the Fed cuts rates to 3 per cent or lower in 2026 to appease the White House, it reduces the cost of capital for GCC governments and corporates leveraging balance sheets to diversify away from hydrocarbons. In short: if Washington prints money, the Gulf gets a discount on its diversification bill.

Currency weakness

The risk, however, lies in the dollar. A Fed that is perceived to have lost its independence often leads to currency weakness. For the GCC, a weaker dollar is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it makes the region’s dollar-denominated assets (real estate and equities) cheaper for foreign buyers holding euros, pounds, or yuan, potentially spurring a fresh wave of inward investment.

On the other hand, it imports inflation. Since the GCC imports the vast majority of its consumer goods, a sliding greenback diminishes local purchasing power relative to Europe and Asia. While inflation in the UAE has remained relatively benign (hovering around 2 per cent), a sustained devaluation of the dollar could push import costs higher, squeezing margins for retailers and potentially forcing a rise in the cost of living that fiscal policy would need to address.

Interestingly, the weakness of the US Dollar since Trump took office again, correlates very positively to his first administration in 2016. If we are to continue to follow the trajectory of that 4-year period, we should expect to see some more Dollar weakness before things start to recover.

Can strong fiscal buffers offset these risks? Currently, yes. While a US economic slowdown, the very thing Trump is trying to avert (especially during the Midterms), typically dampens demand for crude, the GCC’s correlation to US GDP is evolving. The region’s economic pivots are increasingly oriented toward Asia, where demand dynamics differ. Furthermore, a weaker dollar historically supports nominal oil prices, which may provide a floor for crude even if physical demand softens.

However, the fiscal breakeven prices for some GCC states are creeping higher. If a US slowdown is severe enough to drag oil toward $60/bbl, the “cheap money” from Fed rate cuts becomes a necessity rather than a luxury, needed to plug deficits and keep non-oil growth engines firing.

For investors, this environment favors a tactical shift. In equities, sectors that benefit from yield compression, such as utilities, real estate, and high-dividend banking stocks, look more attractive. Fixed income within the GCC also becomes more compelling; as US yields fall, regional sukuk and bonds offering a spread over Treasuries will likely see capital appreciation.

There were reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent had told POTUS that the investigation is becoming a mess and a potential market negative, but it is worth saying that as of right now – US equities are the highest they have ever been, which indicates the overall sentiment of this market. Ultimately, the Gulf’s economic resilience in 2026 will depend on its ability to utilize looser US monetary policy to fuel domestic growth, while using its substantial fiscal buffers to smooth out the volatility arising from Washington’s political uncertainty.

Qatar signals caution at key US air base as Iran tensions rise

Officials said the steps were part of broader efforts to safeguard the security of citizens and residents and to protect critical infrastructure

Reuters
Reuters

14 January, 2026

Qatar signals caution at key US air base as Iran tensions rise

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Qatar said on Wednesday precautionary measures had been taken at the US-run Al Udeid Air Base, including the departure of some personnel, because of rising regional tensions, according to its International Media Office.

The office said the steps were part of broader efforts to safeguard the security of citizens and residents and to protect critical infrastructure and military facilities, adding that any further developments would be announced through official channels.

Oil prices rise

Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Wednesday for a fifth straight session on fears of Iranian supply disruptions due to a potential US attack on Iran.

Brent futures were up 48 cents, or 0.73 per cent, at $65.95 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 35 cents, or 0.57 per cent, at $61.50 a barrel.

“We are in a period of geopolitical instability and potential supply disruption,” said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Iranians to keep protesting and said help was on the way, without specifying what that meant.

“Protests in Iran risk tightening global oil balances through near-term supply losses, but mainly through rising geopolitical risk premium,” Citi analysts said in a note.

The analysts noted, however, that the protests had not spread to the main Iranian oil-producing areas, which had limited the effect on actual supply.

TotalEnergies partners with Bahrain’s Bapco in new Middle East trading venture

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the joint venture strengthened Total’s Middle East presence

Reuters
Reuters

14 January, 2026

TotalEnergies partners with Bahrain’s Bapco in new Middle East trading venture
Image: Getty Images

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French oil major TotalEnergies TTEF.PA has formed a 50-50 joint venture with Bahrain’s Bapco Energies called BxT Trading, it said on Wednesday.

The Middle East-focused venture will trade in relation to products from Bapco’s 267,000 barrels-per-day Sitra refinery.

The partnership builds on a 2024 deal under which Total agreed to help expand and modernise Sitra to reach throughput capacity of 380,000 barrels per day and share the French firm’s trading expertise, while exploring options to partner with Bahrain on projects in renewable energy or liquefied natural gas.

In December, Bapco announced a new capacity increase to 405,000 bpd at the site.

“Through this partnership with TotalEnergies we are enhancing our global trading capabilities, strengthening our downstream value chain, and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a competitive and trusted player in the international energy markets,” Bapco Energies Chairman Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa said in a statement.

Read: TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, Petronas sign five-year Guyana exploration deal

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the joint venture strengthened Total’s Middle East presence

The two executives held a signing ceremony on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi.

UAE’s Onepane launches Agentic IT to bring autonomous AI to IT operations

The launch marks a shift in IT from reactive maintenance toward proactive innovation

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

14 January, 2026

UAE’s Onepane launches Agentic IT to bring autonomous AI to IT operations
Arun Mohan, general partner at AMX Ventures/Image: Supplied

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Onepane, a UAE-homegrown technology company recognised as the region’s first agentic AI platform purpose-built for IT operations, has launched a new category of autonomous infrastructure called Agentic IT, aimed at transforming how enterprise IT teams operate.

While enterprises globally have rapidly adopted AI agents across sales, marketing and customer engagement, IT departments — the backbone supporting these innovations — continue to manage growing complexity using legacy, reactive tools. Onepane’s launch directly addresses this imbalance by introducing an agentic layer designed specifically for IT-Ops.

Led by technology investor Arun Mohan, general partner at AMX Ventures, Onepane’s Agentic IT framework aligns with the broader industry shift toward what Microsoft has described as “Frontier Firms” — organisations that embed artificial intelligence deeply into their operational DNA.

AI engine

At the core of this ecosystem is Onepane Pulse, an AI engine developed in the UAE that unifies fragmented IT environments. Unlike conventional monitoring tools that simply surface issues, Pulse analyses vast data streams across infrastructure, applications, security and compliance to deliver actionable intelligence and autonomous execution.

“The industry has developed an ‘agent gap’,” said Mohan. “We have agents that can write emails and agents that can close deals, but we lack agents that can self-heal a cloud environment or autonomously orchestrate a DevOps pipeline. IT professionals are currently the ‘manual labour’ behind the AI revolution. We are changing that by introducing an agentic layer that serves the individual, the team, and the entire enterprise.”

The launch marks a shift in IT from reactive maintenance toward proactive innovation. Rather than being positioned as a single product, Agentic IT is designed as an operating system for next-generation IT teams seeking to keep pace with AI-driven enterprise transformation.

Onepane’s Agentic IT model is built on a three-tier framework designed to scale across organisations:

Personal agent – Supports individual IT engineers by automating root-cause analysis, troubleshooting and data synthesis, reducing alert fatigue and cognitive load. Engineers can query Pulse to analyse production incidents and receive immediate recommendations.

Team agent – Acts as a digital connective layer across development, operations and security teams, capturing institutional knowledge and executing workflows without manual hand-offs. For example, patching agents can schedule, validate and report updates autonomously across environments.

Enterprise agent – Provides leadership with a real-time “pulse” of the organisation’s digital estate, aligning technical performance with governance and business outcomes. Resilience agents continuously validate recovery objectives and identify gaps before incidents occur.

Headquartered in the UAE with a presence in the United States, Onepane has developed Pulse through a team of experienced professionals with more than a decade of expertise in building advanced IT workflows across application, infrastructure, security and compliance domains. This operational depth underpins the company’s agentic IT approach and positions it as a regional player in enterprise AI infrastructure.

Read: How JetBrains is shaping the era of intelligent, agentic software development

AI-related fraud: Dubai Police flag fines of up to Dhs750,000 for this offence

Dubai Police urged anyone who suspects a fraud attempt to report it immediately through the Dubai Police smart app, by calling 901

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

14 January, 2026

AI-related fraud: Dubai Police flag fines of up to Dhs750,000 for this offence
Image credit: Getty Images

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Dubai Police have issued a public warning over the growing misuse of artificial intelligence to forge official and unofficial documents, a trend authorities say is increasingly being exploited to commit financial fraud and circumvent the law.

The alert was issued by the Anti-Fraud Centre at the General Department of Criminal Investigation, which urged institutions, companies and members of the public to remain vigilant and to carefully verify documents received through email or social media, according to a Dubai Police Media report.

As part of Dubai Police’s ongoing #BewareofFraud campaign, the Anti-Fraud Centre stressed the need for heightened digital awareness across all segments of society. Fraudsters, the centre said, are taking advantage of rapid technological advances, including artificial intelligence tools, to generate forged documents that can appear professionally written and well formatted at first glance.

Read more-Job seekers beware: Dubai Police warn of work visa scams

Despite their polished appearance, forged documents often contain red flags that specialists can identify. These include inaccurate or inconsistent information, language that does not align with approved official templates, and the use of fake signatures or stamps.

Dubai Police cautioned the public against relying solely on how authentic a document appears. Proper verification should involve checking the source, reviewing digital file details such as creation and modification dates, and confirming the existence of official reference numbers that can be traced through legitimate channels.

Legal consequences and reporting channels

The Anti-Fraud Centre underscored that using artificial intelligence to forge documents is a criminal offence punishable under UAE law. It added that strong digital awareness among the public continues to serve as the first line of defence against fraud and related financial crimes.

Dubai Police urged anyone who suspects a fraud attempt to report it immediately through the Dubai Police smart app, by calling 901, or through the eCrime platform dedicated to reporting cybercrimes.

Authorities also highlighted the strict penalties imposed under UAE law for document forgery, whether official or unofficial. Article 252 of Federal Decree Law No. 31 of 2021 on Crimes and Penalties states that forging an official document carries a temporary prison sentence of up to 10 years, while forging an unofficial document is punishable by imprisonment.

Article 253 further stipulates that anyone who forges a copy of an official document and uses it, or knowingly uses a forged copy, faces temporary imprisonment of up to five years. If the forged copy relates to an unofficial document, the penalty is imprisonment.

With respect to electronic documents, Article 14 of Federal Decree Law No. 34 of 2021 on Combating Rumours and Cybercrimes provides that forging an electronic document belonging to a federal or local government entity, or a public authority or institution, is punishable by temporary imprisonment and a fine ranging from Dhs150,000 to Dhs750,000.

If the forgery involves electronic documents issued by entities other than those specified, the penalty is imprisonment and a fine ranging from Dhs100,000 to Dhs300,000, or either penalty. The same penalties apply to anyone who knowingly uses a forged electronic document. Digital awareness remains essential protection.

Global passport ranking revealed: Here’s where UAE stands

The UAE’s ascent reflects a sustained and deliberate strategy that has positioned passport strength as a tool of economic participation

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

14 January, 2026

Global passport ranking revealed: Here’s where UAE stands
Image credit: WAM/Website

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The UAE has recorded the strongest long-term rise of any country on the Henley Passport Index, climbing an unprecedented 57 places over the past two decades to rank 5th globally in 2026, marking one of the most significant mobility success stories in modern international relations.

According to the latest Henley Passport Index, which marks its 20th anniversary this year and is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), UAE passport holders now enjoy visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 184 destinations worldwide. This represents an exceptional increase of 149 destinations since 2006, the largest gain recorded by any country in the index’s history, a WAM report said.

Read more-UAE introduces new passport rule: read details

The UAE’s ascent reflects a sustained and deliberate strategy that has positioned passport strength as a tool of economic participation, diplomatic engagement, and global influence. Over two decades, the country has consistently strengthened its passport power through long-term political stability, proactive diplomacy, strategic visa policy, and the expansion of bilateral and multilateral partnerships.

Long-term strategy delivers tangible mobility gains

“The UAE’s rise on the Henley Passport Index is without parallel,” said Dr Christian H Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners and creator of the index. “It demonstrates how long-term vision, political stability, and proactive diplomacy can translate directly into tangible mobility benefits for citizens, and increasing soft power for the country.”

The UAE now ranks ahead of traditionally strong passports including New Zealand (6th), the UK and Australia (both 7th), Canada (8th), and the USA (10th). This positioning underscores the country’s emergence as a global leader in cultivating constructive international relationships across regions, reflected directly in the breadth of visa-free access granted to its citizens.

Commenting on the ranking, Omar Obaid Al Shamsi, under-secretary of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the milestone as the outcome of sustained diplomatic effort and strategic openness.

“The record-breaking ascent of the UAE passport reflects our leadership’s forward-looking vision and unwavering commitment to openness, dialogue, and global cooperation,” Al Shamsi said. “This achievement is the result of the tireless efforts of UAE diplomacy to establish strategic partnerships that elevate the nation’s standing on the international stage.”

He added that expanded travel freedom delivers both individual and systemic benefits. “By expanding travel freedom, the UAE ensures that our citizens enjoy ever-greater opportunities across the world, while simultaneously fostering global growth and collaboration. The UAE’s journey stands as an inspiring example of how vision, engagement, and openness can translate into tangible benefits for both citizens and the wider international community.”

Passport power as an economic enabler

As international travel demand continues to rise, passport strength is increasingly viewed as a critical enabler of economic participation, trade, tourism, and labor mobility. IATA forecasts that airlines will carry more than 5.2 billion passengers worldwide in 2026, highlighting the scale at which global mobility now operates.

“A record number of people are expected to travel in 2026. The unequivocal economic and social benefits generated by this travel grow as it becomes more accessible,” said Willie Walsh, director-general of IATA. “As many governments look to more tightly secure their borders, technological advances such as digital ID and digital passports should not be overlooked by policymakers. Convenient travel and secure borders are possible.”

Henley & Partners’ exclusive research into the predictors of passport strength highlights several structural drivers behind sustained gains, including reciprocity in visa policies, proactive foreign relations, economic status, and tourism-led openness. Countries that actively negotiate visa waivers and build cooperative ties tend to expand travel freedom for their citizens over time.

The research further shows that political and economic stability, combined with a high degree of openness to foreign visitors and residents, correlates strongly with long-term improvements in passport power, a dynamic that the UAE exemplifies.

“Passport strength is not accidental, it is built by a clear vision and policy,” Dr Kaelin said. “Our research shows that countries which invest in diplomatic credibility, reciprocal openness, and international cooperation are rewarded with greater mobility for their citizens.”

He noted that nations such as the UAE have embedded mobility into broader economic diversification strategies. “Through their steady and clear leadership, they have prioritised tourism, trade, and global engagement, helping drive successive improvements in visa-free access. The UAE exemplifies how a long-term, strategic approach to global engagement translates directly into passport power.”

Global mobility gains mask deepening imbalances

While global mobility has expanded overall, the distribution of travel freedom remains uneven, according to a Henley Global newsroom report. The divergence between outbound mobility and inbound openness is becoming increasingly pronounced among major economies.

US passport holders can travel visa-free to 179 destinations, yet the United States itself allows only 46 nationalities to enter without a prior visa. This places the USA 78th out of 199 countries and territories worldwide on the Henley Openness Index. The gap between outbound privilege and inbound openness is among the widest globally, second only to Australia and marginally ahead of Canada, New Zealand, and Japan.

By contrast, China has moved rapidly in the opposite direction. Over the past two years alone, China has granted visa-free access to more than 40 additional countries. Now ranked 62nd on the Openness Index, China permits entry to 77 different nationalities, 31 more than the US.

“Over the past 20 years, global mobility has expanded significantly, but the benefits have been distributed unevenly,” said Dr Kaelin. “Today, passport privilege plays a decisive role in shaping opportunity, security, and economic participation, with rising average access masking a reality in which mobility advantages are increasingly concentrated among the world’s most economically powerful and politically stable nations.”

This imbalance is intensifying even as international travel demand continues to grow. While more people have the economic means to travel, border restrictions and uneven visa policies increasingly determine who can participate fully in global movement.

“A record number of people are expected to travel in 2026,” IATA’s Walsh said. “But while more people have the economic freedom to travel, many nationalities are seeing that a passport alone is no longer sufficient to cross borders.”

As governments balance security concerns with economic imperatives, the role of policy coordination, digital innovation, and diplomatic engagement is expected to become more central to shaping future mobility outcomes.

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