Could El Niño bring wetter weather to the UAE this winter?
Parts of the Gulf could face conditions more favourable for rainfall from August to October as El Niño strengthens
06 August, 2026
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Parts of the UAE and neighbouring Gulf states could face conditions somewhat more favourable for rainfall from August to October, according to a new multi-system seasonal forecast from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The forecast, initialised on July 1, shows an elevated probability of above-normal precipitation across a broad area stretching from parts of eastern Saudi Arabia and northern Oman through Iraq, Iran and Central Asia.
The strongest signal is concentrated over Iran and Iraq. However, A light-green band appears to extend across parts of southern and northern UAE, as well as Oman’s Musandam Peninsula and sections of northern Oman. Some Gulf-facing areas of eastern Saudi Arabia also appear within or close to the wetter signal.
The boundaries should be interpreted cautiously, according to experts.
Copernicus combines the participating systems on a common one-degree grid, making the forecast useful for identifying broad regional patterns rather than drawing precise conclusions for individual emirates or towns. Predominantly inland parts of the UAE appear predominantly within the map’s white zone.
What does the map actually forecast?
The chart does not predict how many millimetres of rain will fall, how many rainy days will occur or whether a severe storm will develop.
Instead, it estimates which of three broad rainfall categories is most likely for the entire three-month period from August through October 2026.
For each location, the modelling systems compare their forecast precipitation with their own historical climate distribution for the corresponding season. The range is separated into three equally sized categories, known as terciles: the driest third, the middle third and the wettest third of historical outcomes.
Green areas indicate an increased probability that the three-month precipitation total will fall within the wettest third. Yellow and brown areas favour the driest third, while darker colours indicate higher probabilities.
Under normal climatological odds, each of the three categories — dry, near normal and wet — would have a probability of approximately 33.3 per cent.
A 40–50 per cent probability therefore represents a modest shift towards wetter conditions, rather than an overwhelming forecast of an unusually wet season.

The outlook brings together systems from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Italy’s CMCC, Germany’s DWD, the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the Japan Meteorological Agency, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
El Niño strengthens
The rainfall outlook comes as El Niño continues to intensify in the tropical Pacific.
“Further strengthening of El Niño conditions continues to be indicated as very likely in the latest forecast,” Copernicus said in its July update.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said on July 31 that a strong El Niño was developing and expected to strengthen further during the August-to-October period.
The WMO said El Niño would be one of several oceanic influences shaping weather patterns, alongside exceptionally warm global oceans and the forecast development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurs when the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average relative to the eastern side. Its interaction with El Niño can amplify regional rainfall and drought patterns around the Indian Ocean basin, although the effects vary by location.
The US Climate Prediction Center said there was a 97 per cent chance that El Niño would persist through early spring 2027 and an 81 per cent chance that it would become a very strong event between October and December.
Such an event would rank among the largest in records dating back to 1950, the agency said.
What is El Niño and why does it happen?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a naturally occurring climate cycle involving the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it.
Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds move warm surface water westwards towards Asia and Australia. This helps colder, deeper water rise to the surface near the west coast of South America.
During El Niño, the trade winds weaken and can occasionally reverse. Warm water spreads eastwards across the central and eastern Pacific, while less cold water rises from below.
This changes the location of tropical rainfall and alters atmospheric pressure, winds and large-scale circulation. The disruption begins in the Pacific but can influence seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns in regions thousands of kilometres away.
Scientists do not yet fully understand what initiates every ENSO shift, but once the ocean and atmosphere begin changing together, they can reinforce one another and allow an El Niño event to strengthen.
Is it a ‘super El Niño’?
“Super El Niño” is commonly used in media reports to describe an exceptionally intense event, but it is not an official operational category.
But the likes of WMO says it does not use the term “‘super El Niño’ because it is not part of standardised operational classifications.”
Official descriptions generally range from weak and moderate to strong and very strong. The most accurate wording at present is therefore strong El Niño, or potentially very strong El Niño, rather than treating “super El Niño” as a confirmed scientific classification.
No forecast of another April 2024 event
The outlook for a potentially wetter season may attract particular attention in the UAE following the exceptional rainfall and flooding of April 2024.
The National Centre of Meteorology described that episode as the country’s heaviest rainfall event since climate records began in 1949. Khatm Al Shakla in Al Ain recorded 254.8mm, while roads, homes, businesses and transport services were affected across the country.
However, the new Copernicus outlook provides no basis for predicting a repeat of the April 2024 floods.
Seasonal forecasts cannot predict individual storms, their intensity, their precise location or whether flooding will occur. They assess whether the overall odds of a wetter or drier three-month period have changed.
The latest outlook therefore indicates that parts of the northern UAE, northern Oman and eastern Saudi Arabia may sit on the edge of a broader wetter-than-normal regional signal. But the shift in probability is modest, and it does not constitute a severe-weather warning.
























