Double-digit growth without discounts signals a new retail era in the Middle East
If 2025 was the year enterprise AI ‘learned to do’, 2026 will be the year businesses ‘learn to trust’
03 February, 2026
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The Middle East’s retail sector ended 2025 on a high, but the headline growth figures only tell part of the story. During peak periods such as Cyber Week, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Ramadan shopping season, consumer demand across the region surged. What matters more, however, is how that growth was achieved.
This was not a boom driven by deeper discounts or short-term promotions. Instead, it points to a more structural shift underway, one that will redefine how commerce works in 2026 and beyond. At the centre of that shift is the rise of agentic AI.
Based on aggregated commerce data and consumer research published by Salesforce, analysing activity from more than 1.5 billion shoppers and over 1.5 trillion page views globally during peak periods, clear changes are emerging in how people discover, decide, and engage, not just what they buy. Nowhere is that shift more visible than in the Middle East.
Cyber Week 2025 proved pivotal for the region. Across Middle Eastern markets, both online sales and orders grew by 23 per cent, with traffic up 19 per cent. Crucially, this growth was achieved without heavier discounting. Average discounts edged down to 27 per cent, from 28 per cent in 2024, a strong indicator of healthier, more confident demand.
Black Friday followed a similar pattern. Online sales rose 21 per cent, orders increased 20 per cent, and traffic grew 17 per cent, while average discounts narrowed slightly to 28 per cent, down from 29 per cent the year before. Even globally, where growth was more moderate, the Middle East continued to outperform, with Cyber Monday delivering 8 per cent online growth and a 19 per cent increase in traffic.
Beyond the traditional year-end shopping season, Ramadan once again underscored the region’s distinct retail dynamics. In March 2025, online sales increased by 19 per cent year-over-year, with traffic up 15 per cent. Retailers relied more heavily on promotions during this period, with average discounts rising to 21 per cent from 14 per cent the previous year, reflecting increased competition and heightened consumer awareness around seasonal value.
Taken together, these figures indicate a digitally mature retail market that is expanding rapidly, yet also becoming increasingly complex. Growth alone does not explain what comes next.
The way consumers in the Middle East discover, evaluate, and purchase products is changing at speed. A growing share of shoppers now begin product searches using AI-powered assistants such as ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Meta AI, or Grok. Adoption is even higher among Gen Z consumers. Increasingly, AI tools are being used not only for inspiration but for comparison, decision-making, and purchase support.
This shift is not happening in isolation. As AI-powered discovery tools proliferate, consumers are gravitating toward experiences that deliver relevance rather than volume. These systems understand context, learn preferences and intent, and translate that intelligence into real-time, personalised recommendations.
Trust in these tools is accelerating. Many consumers who already rely on AI chat services for product recommendations now expect to use them when purchasing gifts or planning seasonal spending. A meaningful share are even open to letting an AI agent complete purchases on their behalf.
Importantly, this behaviour is not limited to online shopping. When visiting physical stores, a growing proportion of consumers now use AI assistants on their phones to compare prices, check reviews, or validate choices. For today’s shoppers, the journey no longer starts in one channel and ends in another. They expect fluid, conversational, always-on engagement, and increasingly, they expect brands to respond on their terms.
Retailers across the Middle East began responding decisively to this shift throughout 2025. AI agents are increasingly being deployed both in customer-facing experiences and across back-end operations.
On the front end, these agents enable more personalised and conversational shopping journeys. Drawing on browsing behaviour, purchase history, and real-time signals, they can recommend products, resolve complex questions, and guide customers seamlessly from discovery through to checkout.
Behind the scenes, agentic AI is already reshaping operations. Retailers are using autonomous systems to model inventory more precisely, dynamically adjust pricing, strengthen supply chain resilience, detect fraud in real time, and automate clearance strategies with minimal human intervention. The payoff is faster decision-making, greater efficiency, and the ability to scale without compromising experience.
Why businesses will learn to trust in 2026
If 2025 was the year enterprise AI learned to act, 2026 will be the year businesses learn to trust.
The evolution from insight-generating tools to autonomous, multi-step systems has not been without friction. Many organisations continue to wrestle with governance, data quality, security, and the balance between human oversight and machine autonomy.
Yet the momentum is undeniable. AI adoption has accelerated sharply over the past four years. The constraint is no longer technical feasibility, but organisational confidence and clarity around guardrails.
In 2026, competitive advantage will belong to organisations that can responsibly orchestrate AI agents, ground them in trusted data, and clearly define where human judgment adds value.
This shift carries particular significance for the Middle East. The region’s young, digitally native population embraces new technology quickly, while governments continue to invest heavily in AI, digital infrastructure, and innovation-led growth.
Agentic commerce gives retailers a way to meet rising expectations amid disruption. It enables personalisation at scale, operational agility, and real-time responsiveness, critical in a region where peak periods such as Ramadan or Cyber Week can determine annual performance.
Even as prices increased, shoppers demonstrated a clear willingness to spend when experiences felt relevant, personalised, and effortless. In the near future, agentic commerce will no longer be a differentiator. It will simply underpin how modern retail in the Middle East works.
The writer is the SVP/GM Middle East, Salesforce.

























