Morgan Stanley sees cash buyers and Chinese buoying Dubai property

Morgan Stanley expects the rally Dubai’s in property prices to continue this year — even after a 20 per cent jump since 2020 — due to cash buyers, yield-hunting investors and the reopening of China.

Prices are likely to remain high because about 80 per cent of property sales in Dubai are cash-based and so less impacted by interest rates, investors will continue to be drawn by attractive rental yields and a pick up in Chinese investors will buoy demand, analyst Nida Iqbal wrote in a report dated April 13.

Demand for Dubai real estate is booming after the government’s handling of the pandemic and its liberal visa policies attracted more foreign buyers. The city is also benefitting from an influx of wealthy investors such as crypto millionaires and rich Indians seeking second homes.

The average home price in Dubai climbed 12.8 per cent in the 12 months through March 2023, while the average residential rent surged 26.3 per cent over the same period, according to real estate adviser CBRE Group.

Structural reforms have made buying property more attractive for expats compared with renting, while rental yield in Dubai is about 5.5 per cent, compared with 2 per cent to 5per cent in other large global cities, according to the report.

Morgan Stanley also initiated coverage of three UAE-based developers. Emaar Properties, the builder of the world’s tallest tower, was rated “overweight” while its development unit, Emaar Development was assigned an “equal-weight” rating.

“We believe the strong revenue backlogs of the UAE real estate developers provide revenue visibility over the next 3 to 4 years” and “the large land banks provide the potential for further launches for the next 15 to 30 years, Iqbal wrote. “Finally, recurring revenue streams such as retail revenues and hospitality are benefitting from a rebound in tourism.”

Abu Dhabi-based developer Aldar Properties was initiated with an “overweight” rating with plenty of growth potential.

Read: Why Dubai’s luxury real estate market is a haven for investors