IMF ties Egypt loan disbursements to currency flexibility

The IMF will tie payments to Egypt under an $8bn financial programme to Cairo’s letting market conditions determine the price of its currency and its making foreign exchange available to businesses and private individuals, the IMF said on Monday.

Egypt, which signed the loan agreement on March 6, will have immediate access to $820m this week and another $820m after a review to be completed by the end of June.

Subsequent reviews will be made every six months, with each unlocking payments of $1.3bn provided certain conditions are met, with the last payment in autumn of 2026, mission chief Ivanna Vladkova Hollar told a news conference.

IMF programme for Egypt

The International Monetary Fund‘s executive board approved the programme on Friday, expanding on a $3bn Extended Fund Facility signed in December 2022 after the crisis in neighbouring Gaza further shook Egypt‘s already precarious economy.

Egypt allowed its currency to weaken sharply after the 2022 agreement, but within months had re-pegged it to the dollar, prompting the IMF to put the programme on hold.

Under last month’s agreement Egypt again let its currency plunge and has since let its price fluctuate.

“This is an important reform that needs to be sustained. It’s not a one-off reform,” Hollar said.

“At each individual review, the expectation is that the conditions that we’re seeing now in the market are going to continue to hold, in the sense that we do not see a return to a system of FX rationing and lack of FX availability,” she said.

Middle East tensions impact Egypt’s economy

The Gaza crisis exacerbated Egypt‘s chronic foreign crisis by slowing tourism growth and triggering attacks from Yemen on shipping in the Red Sea, halving Suez Canal revenue. Tourism and canal revenue are two of its main sources of foreign exchange.

Among other reforms the IMF is seeking is that Cairo ensure a level playing field between private and state firms and that the state reduce its role in the economy.

An additional loan from the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility would be discussed during the next review, Vladkova Hollar said.

“To qualify, countries need to have in place a strong set of policies that are intended to address the bases of climate change,” she added.

The IMF forecasts that Egypt‘s inflation will remain high in the near term, with average inflation for the coming fiscal year, which begins on July 1, expected at 25.5 per cent, falling to 15.25 per cent by the end of that year, she said. Inflation rose to a record high of 38 per cent in September before easing in February to 35 per cent.

The country, whose budget has been stretched in recent years, needs to replace untargeted fuel subsidies with targeted spending designed to reach households in need, she added.

Egypt raised fuel prices late last month as part of a programme to reduce subsidies. Fuel subsidies would continue to fall as part of Egypt‘s quarterly pricing committee meetings, Hollar said.

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