OPEC, IEA oil demand forecasts since 2008: A comparison

Producer group Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s most closely watched forecasters of oil demand growth, are further apart than they have been for at least 16 years in their views on fuel use, according to Reuters research.

The gap between the IEA, which represents industrialised countries, and the OPEC means the two are sending divergent signals to traders and investors on oil market strength in 2024 and, for the longer term, about the speed of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels.

In February this year, the IEA predicted demand will rise by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report OPEC expected 2.25 million bpd. The difference is about 1 per cent of world demand.

To set the difference in context, Reuters analysed the changes each agency has made to its oil demand forecasts from 2008 to 2023, and the first two months of this year.

The period was chosen to give a long enough time series to draw conclusions and because it included extreme volatility in oil demand, starting with the 2008 financial crisis and ending with the 2020 pandemic and subsequent demand recovery.

International oil futures hit an all-time high of almost $150 a barrel in July 2008, compared with roughly $80 now.

Reuters’ analysis of 16 years of IEA and OPEC monthly reports found the 1.03 million bpd gap in February was the biggest in per-barrel terms in that period.

The IEA, asked to comment on its 2024 forecast, said in an email that this year’s slowdown amounted to a return to the growth trends seen before the pandemic, and the slowdown is already visible in oil deliveries data.

“We expect this to continue this year, with mobility indicators suggesting that road and air traffic are stabilising,” the IEA said, adding it could not comment on other organisations’ forecasts.

OPEC did not respond immediatey to an emailed request for comment.

Green shift

OPEC and the IEA also disagree over the medium term. The IEA expects oil demand to peak by 2030 as the world switches to cleaner fuels. OPEC dismisses the view, and its forecasts to 2045 show no peak.

Reuters compared each agency’s initial oil demand projection in a given year, usually made in the monthly report in the June or July before the year in question, with the figure given in the December of the year in question. For example, for 2008 demand, the figure given in July 2007 was compared to the figure given in December 2008.

Comparing the initial forecast with the end-year forecast will show whether the first forecast was over- or under-estimated, and which agency made the biggest revision in per-barrel terms.

All figures are in millions of barrels per day (bpd).

Oil demand forecast comparison

Number of years demand since 2008 was			Underestimated	Overestimated
OPEC			8	8
IEA			9	7
Made biggest revision since 2008			Times
IEA			7
OPEC			7
Both made similar revisions			2
Source	Initial forecast	End-year figure	Change vs initial	Biggest revision by	Initial forecast was
2008
	Jul-07	Dec-08
OPEC	86.94	85.83	-1.1		overestimated
IEA	88.2	85.8	-2.4	IEA	overestimated
2009
	Jul-08	Dec-09
OPEC	87.71	84.31	-3.4	OPEC	overestimated
IEA	87.7	84.9	-2.8		overestimated
2010
	Jul-09	Dec-10
OPEC	84.3	85.93	1.63		underestimated
IEA	85.2	87.4	2.2	IEA	underestimated
2011
	Jul-10	Dec-11
OPEC	86.4	87.8	1.4	OPEC	underestimated
IEA	87.8	89	1.2		underestimated
2012
	Jul-11	Dec-12
OPEC	89.5	88.8	-0.7		overestimated
IEA	91	89.7	-1.3	IEA	overestimated
2013
	Jul-12	Dec-13
OPEC	89.5	89.79	0.29	Draw	underestimated
IEA	90.9	91.2	0.3		underestimated
2014
	Jul-13	Dec-14
OPEC	90.7	91.13	0.43	Draw	underestimated
IEA	92	92.4	0.4		underestimated
2015
	Jul-14	Dec-15
OPEC	92.3	92.88	0.58	OPEC	underestimated
IEA	94.1	94.6	0.5		underestimated
2016
	Jul-15	Dec-16
OPEC	93.94	94.41	0.47		underestimated
IEA	95.2	96.3	1.1	IEA	underestimated
2017
	Jul-16	Dec-17
OPEC	95.3	96.94	1.64	OPEC	underestimated
	Jun-16
IEA	97.4	97.8	0.4		underestimated
2018
	Jul-17	Dec-18
OPEC	97.6	98.79	1.19	OPEC	underestimated
	Jun-17
IEA	99.3	99.2	-0.1		overestimated
2019
	Jul-18	Dec-19
OPEC	100	99.8	-0.2		overestimated
	Jun-18
IEA	100.6	100.2	-0.4	IEA	overestimated
2020
	Jul-19	Dec-20
OPEC	101.01	89.99	-11.02	OPEC	overestimated
	Jun-19
IEA	101.7	91.2	-10.5		overestimated
2021
	Jul-20	Dec-21
OPEC	97.7	96.63	-1.07		overestimated
	Jun-20
IEA	97.4	96.2	-1.2	IEA	overestimated
2022
	Jul-21	Dec-22
OPEC	99.86	99.56	-0.3		overestimated
	Jun-21
IEA	99.5	99.9	0.4	IEA	underestimated
2023
	Jul-22	Dec-23
OPEC	103	102.1	-0.9	OPEC	overestimated
	Jun-22
IEA	101.6	101.7	0.1		underestimated

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