1.5°C global temperature threshold could be breached by 2027: WMO

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a fresh warning that global temperatures are headed for a record surge in the coming five years. A combination of a probable El Nino weather event and a continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have brought about the likelihood that the average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C for at least one year.

There is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record said WMO.

“The WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said Professor Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of WMO.

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in next 5 years, fuelled by greenhouse gases and El Niño.
There is a 66% likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C in at least one year.#ClimateChange
?https://t.co/4PpgpKoHwL pic.twitter.com/WjXRoDRPE1

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 18, 2023

The WMO report highlights that average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average while the next five years is likely to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. The report also forecasts an El Niño in the coming months.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” said Professor Taalas.

The report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress scheduled to start on May 22 in Geneva, Switzerland to discuss the strengthening of weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation.

Global temperature and greenhouse gas emissions

The report highlights the increase in global GHG emissions which have contributed to the rise in global temperatures.

Another report by International Energy Agency noted that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes grew to a new all-time high in 2022. This worrying trend belies efforts that were firmed up in the 2015 Paris Agreement which was adopted at Conference of Parties (COP21). The agreement calls for a sustained reduction in global greenhouse gas  emissions to limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

In order to achieve a reduction in global GHG emissions, more than 70 countries, including the biggest polluters – China, the US, and the European Union – have set a net-zero target, covering about 76 per cent of global emissions. Most of the GCC Countries too have committed to becoming net-zero between 2050 to 2060.

The UAE is set to host the COP28 in the backdrop of this urgent need for global action. Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate for COP28, speaking at a climate event recently, called upon the oil and gas industry to zero out methane emissions by 2030.

Read more: Kuwait discusses steps to lower emissions as temperatures rise

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