Strategy& Middle East’s Amir Assi on building GCC food security to 2050
Amir Assi, principal at Strategy& Middle East, shares why the Gulf ranks among the world’s most food-secure regions — and how AI-enabled agritech, capital, and partnerships will keep it that way as global demand climbs toward 2050
10 June, 2026
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With the global population set to reach nine to 10 billion by 2050 and roughly one in 10 people undernourished today, food security has become a defining strategic challenge, and recent shocks, which pushed fertiliser prices up by as much as 50 per cent, have only sharpened the stakes. For the GCC, contending with water scarcity, limited arable land, and harsh climates, the obstacles look steep. Yet the region ranks among the world’s most food-secure.
Here, Amir Assi, principal at Strategy& Middle East, explains how capital, policy agility, and AI-enabled agritech can keep it that way while making the system more sustainable.
Recent global disruptions have exposed major vulnerabilities in food systems and supply chains. From Strategy& Middle East’s perspective, what are the biggest lessons governments, particularly in the GCC, should take away from these shocks?
Food security’s strategic importance continues to grow day-by-day, with the global population expected to reach 9-10 billion by 2050. Recent disruptions have introduced significant pressures on food security systems, with volatile supply chains and energy prices impacting the costs of agriculture products and inputs. This is evidenced by fertiliser prices which rose by as much as 50 percent during recent disruptions, feeding directly into production costs and, ultimately, the prices consumers pay.
For GCC governments, the priority is to build resilient food systems that can absorb these shocks through diversified sourcing, strategic reserves, flexible logistics, and policies designed to absorb volatility. Critically, we believe that all governments need to address all four pillars of food security, availability, affordability, safety and quality, and sustainability, at the same time.
Focusing too heavily on one pillar could create a vulnerability. For example, boosting production may improve availability, but if it is done without the right safeguards, it can increase pressure on soil, water, and the climate, undermining sustainability. Similarly, stricter safety standards for food are essential, but if poorly designed, they can raise costs and make food less affordable. A balanced approach is therefore essential.
The report identifies GCC countries as “Capital-Powered Resilience Architects”. What differentiates this archetype from others, and why are GCC nations particularly well-positioned to lead on food security innovation?
The Capital-Powered Resilience Architect archetype describes high-income countries with constrained natural resources, but strong ability to mobilise policy, capital, and technology. Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE fit this profile: they have improved availability, affordability, and safety despite water scarcity, limited arable land, and harsh climates.
In fact, GCC countries are among the most food-secure countries according to the Global Food Security Index. Moreover, the GCC has achieved self-sufficiency across multiple key agrifood commodities.
They have accomplished this by embedding clear and comprehensive national food security strategies and targets. They have also committed billions of dollars’ worth of investments towards agriculture development and agri-tech innovation and adoption. GCC nations have also successfully led the privatisation of the agrifood sector including post-production processing and logistics, thereby increasing efficiency and reducing governmental burdens.
Going forward, GCC countries must focus on sustainability, mainly through innovation. These countries’ well-defined food security targets coupled with policy-making agility, ability to deploy capital, and strong logistics infrastructure makes them very well-positioned to accomplish this.
Sustainability is described as the “next frontier” for GCC food security strategies. What practical steps should governments and businesses prioritise to balance food availability, affordability, and environmental goals?
Each GCC country is following its own path to strengthen food security. The region has made strong progress on availability, affordability, and safety, but the next challenge is achieving this with more diversified food sources and with fewer environmental trade-offs.
In practical terms, this requires action across several areas. First, governments should strengthen supply chain resilience by diversifying trade routes and critical commodity sourcing, so that food access can be preserved during disruption. Second, the region should continue investing in AI-enabled agri-tech at scale. Controlled-environment agriculture, including greenhouse cultivation, hydroponics, and vertical farming, can help improve local production while reducing pressure on land and water.
Third, governments and businesses should accelerate the use of energy-efficient technologies across the food value chain, particularly in desalination, given the region’s reliance on water-intensive production systems. Fourth, tailored funding and incentives, including grants, low-interest loans, blended finance, and co-investment models, can help farmers and food companies adopt agri-tech while keeping costs manageable.
Finally, education and partnerships will be essential. Pilot farms and AI-powered advisory platforms can help farmers build the skills needed to adopt new technologies, while public-private partnerships can help localise agri-tech solutions rather than simply importing them.
On the supply chain side, stronger inter-governmental collaboration can also support inland trade corridors. The goal is to build a food system that is more resilient and more sustainable at the same time.
The report highlights AI-enabled agritech and precision agriculture as key solutions. Can you share examples of how these technologies could transform food production and water management across the region?
AI-enabled agri-tech can help the GCC produce more food with fewer natural resources, which is exactly the region’s challenge. In greenhouses, vertical farms, and hydroponic systems, AI can optimise temperature, humidity, light, nutrients, and yields in real time. In precision agriculture, sensors and analytics can tell farmers exactly when to irrigate, where crops are under stress, and how much input is actually needed. AI-enabled surveillance can detect pests or crop disease earlier, reducing losses and improving quality.
Logistics is another major opportunity: AI can improve demand forecasting, traceability (through blockchain), and cold-chain efficiency. In practical terms, technology turns farming from a resource-intensive activity into a data-driven system.
Advanced irrigation and AI-enabled technologies could reduce water consumption by up to 50 per cent. How significant is this for a water-scarce region like the Middle East, and what barriers remain to scaling these solutions?
Agricultural technology, and especially AI-supported technology, has become a core element of food security strategies. Smart irrigation systems, for example, can determine the water needs of each crop and reduce water consumption by up to 50 per cent, a major breakthrough for water-scarce regions.
Advanced irrigation and AI-enabled precision agriculture allow producers to apply water only where and when it is needed, while monitoring crop health and reducing waste. For the GCC, this is not just an efficiency gain; it is central to long-term food security.
The challenge now is scale. Many solutions still face high upfront costs, capability gaps, fragmented adoption among smaller farms, and the need to adapt imported technologies to GCC climates. That is why financing, pilot farms, AI advisory platforms, and public-private partnerships are so important. They can help make these technologies both bankable and widely adoptable.
Public-private partnerships are mentioned as critical to building resilient food systems. What role do you see the private sector playing in accelerating innovation and improving long-term food security outcomes in the GCC?
The private sector is essential because food security cannot be delivered by government alone. In fact, the GCC has already successfully privatized multiple sectors within the agrifood space.
Governments can set the direction, create the policy framework, and de-risk early-stage investment, but businesses bring technology, execution capability, supply-chain reach, and commercial discipline. In the GCC, public-private partnerships can help localise agri-tech rather than simply import it. That includes adapting greenhouse systems, hydroponics, precision irrigation, AI advisory tools, and cold-chain solutions to regional conditions.
The private sector can also strengthen sourcing networks, improve logistics, and build more resilient inland trade corridors. The most successful models will be those where government reduces risk and the private sector helps move innovation from pilot projects to scalable, commercially viable systems.
Looking ahead to 2050, with global food demand expected to rise sharply, what does a truly resilient and sustainable food system for the GCC look like in practice?
By 2050, the global population is expected to reach 9 billion to 10 billion, while around 10 percent of people today remain undernourished. That makes food security critical.
For the GCC, a resilient system will not mean choosing between imports and local production, but to instead choose what to focus on producing locally, with the use of agri-tech. It will also mean further adopting diversified sourcing, to reduce supply risk, optimised strategic reserves, flexible logistics, and shock-ready policies.
This, along with an AI-driven technology-enabled local agriculture sector for higher yields, reduced waste and decreased water stress, will be central to a truly resilient and sustainable GCC food sector.
