UAE official Anwar Gargash said any settlement of the US-Iran war must guarantee access through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that a deal that fails to rein in Iran’s nuclear programme and its missiles and drones would pave the way for “a more dangerous, more volatile Middle East.”

Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told a weekend briefing that the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical oil artery – cannot be weaponised, stressing that its security is not a regional bargaining chip but a global economic imperative.

“The Strait of Hormuz cannot be held hostage by any country,” said Gargash, adding that freedom of navigation through the waterway “has to be part and parcel of the settlement of any conflict with clear agreement on that.”

Gargash said the UAE wants the war to end, but warned against a ceasefire that leaves the root causes of instability unresolved.

“We don’t want to see more and more escalation,” he said. “But we don’t want a ceasefire that fails to address some of the main issues that will create a much more dangerous environment in the region…notably (Iran’s) nuclear programme, the missiles and drones that are still raining down on us and on other countries.”

US President Donald Trump threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday deadline.

In a post laden with expletives on Sunday on his Truth Social platform, Trump threatened further strikes on Iranian energy and transport infrastructure that critics say would constitute a war crime.

The US and Israel have pounded Iran with missiles and airstrikes for more than five weeks to destroy what they said was an imminent threat from the country’s nuclear weapon development programme, ballistic missile arsenal and support for regional proxy militias.

Read more: US, Iran and mediators make push for 45-day ceasefire

UAE coping well, despite challenges

Gargash said the UAE was ready to join any U.S.-led international effort to secure shipping through the strait.

About a fifth of global oil and liquefied gas supplies normally pass through it each day, but Iran’s actions have severely curtailed traffic, triggering a global energy crisis.

The conflict erupted on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran after talks aimed at securing a nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran hit a deadlock. Iran retaliated with waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel, US military bases in the region, and vital Gulf energy infrastructure, including airports, ports and commercial centres.

The UAE has come under heavier Iranian strikes than any other Gulf state, according to regional officials.

Gargash said that for decades, the most unlikely worst‑case scenario for the UAE had been a full Iranian attack – a scenario that is now unfolding. Despite that, he said, the country was coping well, demonstrating resilience and resourcefulness under pressure.

He said the UAE’s economic fundamentals remained strong and positioned the country for a recovery, though he acknowledged it would require effort.

Gargash said Iran’s strategy was likely to harden the Gulf’s security alignment with Washington rather than reduce it, entrenching the US military role in the region and amplifying Israel’s footprint.

He said the US would remain the UAE’s core security partner and that Abu Dhabi would double down on that relationship as regional threats intensify.

Iran’s strikes on Gulf energy facilities and shipping lanes were seen by regional officials as a calculated attempt to raise the costs for Washington’s Gulf Arab allies. By hitting oil facilities, ports and key waterway – including the Strait – Iran banked on Gulf states, alarmed by economic shock and regional spillover, to press the United States to halt its campaign.

That logic drew on years of Gulf efforts to balance ties with Washington and Tehran, keep tensions contained, and avoid direct confrontation. Many Gulf states had restored diplomatic relations with Iran and tried to shield their economies from regional shocks, believing engagement would lower the risk.

Gargash said Iran’s leadership was fighting to preserve the “regime, not the country”, arguing that no normal government would accept such destruction simply to claim it had resisted. He said the UAE did not seek hostility with Iran, but warned that trust was impossible under the current Tehran government.

The UAE was grateful, he said, for the international support it has received, singling out France as a steadfast partner and praising Washington for its exceptional backing, particularly in strengthening the UAE’s air‑defence capabilities.

Read more: Iran’s $2m ‘toll gate’: How tiny Larak Island became a Hormuz chokepoint

The Bank of Japan said surging oil costs and supply disruptions brought about by the Middle East conflict could hurt the economy, signalling caution over downside risks to growth that may prod it to tread cautiously in raising interest rates.

The assessment, made in a report based on findings from the bank’s regional branches, contrasted with the board’s hawkish debate focusing on inflationary risks from the war, highlighting uncertainty on whether the BOJ could raise rates this month.

In the quarterly report, the BOJ said several regions saw firms already feeling the strain from rising input costs and disruptions in raw material supplies caused by the Iran war.

“As uncertainty heightens, some firms worried that rising prices mainly for energy could hurt corporate profit and consumption,” the report said on Monday.

There were also concerns voiced by firms that supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war could broaden, it said, warning that the conflict could hurt regional economies depending on future developments.

In the western prefecture of Osaka, a chemical maker cut output on uncertainty on whether raw material would arrive, while a transport firm said costs could rise as it re-routed exports that originally passed Dubai, the report said.

“The impact seems limited for now. But if the conflict escalates or lasts long, the hit to economic activity could broaden,” said Kazuhiro Masaki, the BOJ’s Osaka branch manager.

“It’s not just about the impact on prices but availability of goods,” Masaki told a news conference. “Many firms seem worried about the impact in case the conflict is prolonged.”

In the report, the BOJ left unchanged its upbeat economic assessment for all nine regions with consumption holding up due to inbound tourism and rising pay.

On the wage outlook, many regions said companies planned to raise pay this year at around the same pace as last year, though some said their plans could be affected depending on the outlook for the Middle East conflict, the report said.

The report, based on surveys by regional branches conducted until around late March, will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinise in deciding whether to raise rates at its next policy meeting on April 27-28.

Markets have been rattled after the Iran war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, driving up crude oil prices and the safe-haven dollar against the yen.

The war has complicated the BOJ’s rate-hike plan, though rising inflationary pressure and its hawkish communication have led markets to price in roughly a 70 per cent chance of a hike in April.

Soaring oil prices and rising import costs from the weak yen add inflationary pressures to an economy already seeing years of steady wage and price increases.

But the rising cost of fuel also hurts an economy heavily reliant on imports and corporate profits, which in turn could damage a cycle of rising wages and prices seen by the BOJ as a prerequisite for further rate hikes.

Some firms said they were considering or announcing price hikes in the wake of recent yen declines and surging oil prices, the report said.

But many companies were simply not sure yet how developments in the Middle East will affect their businesses, Masaki said.

Tomohiro Nakayama, head of the BOJ’s Sapporo branch overseeing the Hokkaido northernmost prefecture, said firms in the agriculture-heavy region have yet to complain of any shortages in chemical goods like fertilisers.

“But there’s a vague sense of concern spreading that supply could dwindle ahead,” he said.

Across the UAE, families are navigating a prolonged period of uncertainty shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, and rapid change. While much of this instability exists outside the home, its psychological impact is increasingly being felt inside it, particularly in the relationship between parents and children.

According to Dr Rita Figueiredo, clinical psychologist and managing director at Peninsula Psychology, uncertainty disrupts one of the most fundamental human needs: a sense of control. When that stability is shaken, stress and anxiety begin to influence how parents show up emotionally.

“When everything feels unclear and unpredictable, our sense of control is disrupted, which naturally generates stress and anxiety,” she explains. “These tend to show up in two main ways: some parents become more rigid and hypervigilant… others begin to disconnect, appearing physically present but emotionally unavailable.”

For children, these shifts rarely go unnoticed. Even without fully understanding the external triggers, they are highly sensitive to changes in parental behaviour and emotional tone. “Children, regardless of age, pick up on these shifts… They tend to interpret them as a signal that something is not right,” she says.

Stress that speaks without words

One of the key challenges for families is that children do not always express anxiety directly. Instead, it often appears through behavioural changes—many of which can be subtle or easily overlooked.

Dr Figueiredo notes that signs can include regression in sleep patterns, increased dependency, irritability, or physical complaints such as headaches or stomach aches. In many cases, these behaviours are misunderstood.

“These behaviours are meaningful forms of communication,” she says. “It is important to remember that children are not trying to give parents a hard time, they are having a hard time.”

However, parents themselves are often under significant pressure—balancing work, financial concerns, and caregiving responsibilities—which can make it harder to identify these signals early.

A common expectation placed on parents is the need to remain calm and composed, even during periods of heightened stress. While well-intentioned, this pressure can have unintended consequences.

“Attempting to regulate oneself while also maintaining the emotional capacity to co-regulate others is demanding and often exhausting,” Dr Figueiredo says.

Suppressing emotions entirely, she explains, can increase internal strain and reduce a parent’s ability to support their child effectively. Instead, emotional honesty—expressed in a contained and manageable way—can be more beneficial.

“Children do not need perfect parents; they need parents who are predictable and emotionally honest,” she adds. Sharing feelings of worry while demonstrating the ability to manage them can help children develop their own emotional regulation skills.

How stress travels within the household

Parental stress does not need to be explicitly communicated to affect children. It is often transmitted through tone, behaviour, and consistency.

“It can be heard in a sharper tone of voice, seen in reduced patience, or felt in inconsistency around rules,” Dr Figueiredo explains. “Children are highly attuned to these signals… Their nervous system mirrors what is happening around them.”

This creates a feedback loop where anxiety within the household can escalate, leading to increased conflict or a stronger need for reassurance from children.

“In an unpredictable world, the family can become either a stabilising space or another source of uncertainty,” she says. “The difference lies in the consistency and emotional availability within the relationship.”

The rise of hybrid learning and homeschooling has added another layer of complexity, blurring the boundaries between roles within the household.

“Parents are simultaneously expected to function as professionals, educators, caregivers, and emotional regulators,” Dr Figueiredo notes. “This level of role overlap creates significant pressure and increases the likelihood of conflict.”

As a result, relationships can become overly task-focused, centred on performance and responsibilities rather than connection. To counter this, she emphasises the importance of intentionally creating non-task-oriented time.

“Time for play, conversation, or simply being together helps maintain the relational bond,” she says, adding that maintaining familiar routines can also provide a sense of stability.

Communicating uncertainty without fear

When children sense uncertainty but lack full understanding, communication becomes critical. The way parents explain situations can either reinforce anxiety or provide reassurance.

Dr Figueiredo recommends keeping communication simple, honest, and age-appropriate, while avoiding overwhelming detail or unrealistic guarantees.

“More important than the information itself is the emotional experience that accompanies it,” she says. “Children need to feel that they are safe and that they are not facing uncertainty alone.”

Alignment between caregivers is also essential. A shared narrative helps create consistency, while visible conflict can undermine a child’s sense of security. Rather than attempting to eliminate stress entirely, the focus for families should be on managing it through structure and connection. Research-backed strategies include maintaining routines, naming emotions, offering children small choices to build a sense of control, and limiting exposure to distressing news.

“Resilience is not about avoiding stress, but about maintaining connection, regulating emotions, and continuing to function as a family,” Dr Figueiredo explains.

Even small daily interactions—playing a game, having a conversation, or sharing a routine—can reinforce emotional stability.

When tension or disconnection begins to emerge, early intervention is key. Small gestures of repair can prevent issues from escalating.

“Acknowledging when something did not go well, offering an apology, or initiating physical closeness… can help restore connection,” Dr Figueiredo says. Regular check-ins and moments of genuine presence can shift the emotional tone within the household, reinforcing trust and communication.

“The goal is not to win an argument, but to reduce emotional intensity within the family,” she adds.

The defining factor

As uncertainty continues to shape daily life, one insight stands out: the most protective factor for children is not the absence of stress, but the quality of their relationship with their parents.

In an environment where external conditions remain unpredictable, emotional consistency, openness, and connection within the family become the foundation for resilience.

For parents, that may mean letting go of the pressure to be perfect, and focusing instead on being present, predictable, and emotionally available.

In the aftermath of intense rainfall across the UAE, a sharp spike in motor insurance inquiries is exposing a critical knowledge gap among drivers: what actually makes a flood-damaged car claim valid.

According to industry estimates, claim-related inquiries surged by as much as 70 per cent following last week’s rains, underscoring both the scale of disruption and the widespread uncertainty around policy coverage.

The first checkpoint: Coverage vs conduct

At the heart of every claim lies a fundamental distinction between policy type and driver behavior. As Toshita Chauhan, chief business officer, General Insurance, Policybazaar.ae, explains, the UAE market is dominated by two types of coverage: third-party liability and comprehensive insurance.

“Third Party Liability Insurance does not cover damage to your own vehicle,” she said.

“Comprehensive Car Insurance covers third party liabilities as well as damage to your own car, with coverage often extending to risks such as accidents, theft, fire, and certain natural events depending on the policy terms.”

Read more-UAE weather alert: Rain, dust and rough seas expected until April 8

However, even comprehensive policies come with caveats. “Standard comprehensive car insurance can cover damage related to floods or heavy rain, provided the policy has an add-on for natural disaster/peril cover,” Chauhan noted.

Critically, coverage alone is not enough. Insurers also scrutinise driver decisions in the moments leading up to the damage.

“For instance, if your vehicle was parked properly but got damaged due to floods, your comprehensive plan can cover the damage,” she said. “However, if you drive your car on flooded roads, your claim is likely to be rejected.”

Inside the claims process: Evidence is everything

Once a claim is filed, insurers shift into investigation mode, led by adjusters trained to reconstruct events in detail.

Ashmy Arackal, operations manager and head of Travel Insurance, describes the process as evidence-driven and methodical. “Insurance adjusters focus on facts and evidence. In the UAE, they usually start with a police report, which is required for most claims,” she said.

From there, the vehicle undergoes inspection at an approved workshop. “The vehicle is then inspected to understand how the water entered and what parts have been affected, especially the engine and electrical systems,” Arackal added.

Adjusters also cross-check the physical damage against the policyholder’s account. The goal: to confirm that the incident qualifies as “sudden and accidental”, a key requirement for claim approval.

This is where causation becomes critical. Water damage caused by external flooding may be covered, but damage worsened by driver intervention, such as attempting to restart a submerged vehicle, can invalidate the claim.

“Do not try starting the car if submerged under water,” Chauhan warned. “Rather, file a police report, take pictures and videos of the vehicle, and inform the insurer.”

Negligence vs nature: The fine line

One of the most contested aspects of flood-related claims is the definition of negligence. Across the industry, there is broad consensus: knowingly exposing a vehicle to risk can void coverage.

Amit, general manager at Thrifty Car Rental, highlights a common scenario. “Insurers may reject claims in cases where the engine is damaged due to the vehicle being driven through flooded underpasses or waterlogged roads,” he said. “Such instances are typically classified as negligence.”

Even renters, often assumed to be shielded by fleet insurance, are not exempt.

“In general, renters are not held responsible for rain-related damage if the vehicle has been used responsibly,” Amit explained. “However, renters may be held liable if damage occurs due to preventable actions.”

Examples include leaving windows or doors open during heavy rain, or driving into flooded zones despite warnings. “Such damage is typically not covered and the cost must be borne by the renter,” he added.

Dominic, general manager at Dollar Car Rental Dubai and Oman, echoed this stance. “Our rental agreements don’t cover damages caused by heavy rains or flooding if the customer drives the vehicle intentionally in water-clogged areas,” he said.

Parking decisions under scrutiny

Even stationary vehicles are not automatically eligible for claims. Insurers increasingly examine where and how a car was parked.

“A claim may be rejected only if it is determined that the vehicle was exposed to risk due to negligence, for instance, being parked in an area known to be prone to flooding,” Amit noted.

However, simply parking outdoors does not constitute negligence. “Provided reasonable precautions were taken,” he said, claims may still be valid.

This nuance is particularly relevant in urban areas, where flash flooding can occur unpredictably. Insurers must determine whether the driver could reasonably have anticipated the risk.

Some of the most complex cases involve subtle or indirect water intrusion. Arackal points to unusual claims where damage occurs without visible flooding.

“Water can enter through drainage systems like a sunroof or door seals and cause internal damage,” she said. “These cases can be complex to identify how the water got in and whether the damage meets the conditions for a valid claim.”

Such cases often require detailed technical inspections, reinforcing the importance of expert assessment in claim decisions.

Premiums and post-storm recalibration

While flood-prone geography is not typically a direct pricing factor in the UAE, large-scale weather events can still influence insurance costs.

“Car insurance premiums are not usually based on specific flood-prone areas,” Arackal explained.

“However, after major rain events, insurers may adjust pricing across the market to reflect higher overall claims.”

Chauhan adds that risk assessment operates across two stages: underwriting and claims. At underwriting, policy structure determines baseline coverage. At the claims stage, insurers evaluate “coverage, cause of loss, severity of damage, and driver conduct.”

As climate volatility increases, the UAE’s motor insurance ecosystem is evolving into a system that balances protection with accountability. Comprehensive coverage may offer a safety net, but only when paired with responsible behavior.

The message from insurers is clear: documentation, caution, and adherence to advisories are as important as the policy itself. Or, as industry insiders put it, flood damage alone doesn’t determine your payout, your decisions do.

The UAE’s sovereign rating remains unchanged at Aa2 with a stable outlook following a periodic review by Moody’s Ratings, the Ministry of Finance said on Saturday.

Moody’s completed the review on March 30, reassessing the appropriateness of the current rating.

The agency said the exercise does not constitute a credit rating action but reflects an updated assessment of the UAE’s credit profile based on recent developments and its established methodologies.

The review highlighted the country’s high per capita income, robust institutional frameworks and effective policymaking that supports economic diversification and competitiveness.

Moody’s also highlighted the federal government’s very low debt burden and strong financial position, supported by substantial fiscal reserves built up through years of budget surpluses.

Despite ongoing regional geopolitical tensions, the unchanged rating and stable outlook signal continued international confidence in the UAE’s fiscal strength and the sustainability of its economic policies.

UAE’s strong institutional framework, effective governance are key factors

Mohamed bin Hadi Al Hussaini, Minister of State for Financial Affairs, said the review outcome reflects the UAE’s strong institutional framework and track record of effective governance.

He said the country’s fiscal resilience is anchored in its low federal debt levels and balanced budgets, supported by prudent financial management and substantial fiscal buffers.

Al Hussaini said the rating demonstrates the effectiveness of economic policies based on diversification, fiscal discipline and sustainability, adding that maintaining strong investment-grade ratings reinforces the UAE’s position as a reliable global economic hub.

Al Hussaini noted that the Ministry of Finance continues to enhance public financial management, support productive sectors, and advance the development of the UAE dirham sovereign yield curve, contributing to greater transparency and strengthening the country’s appeal in global capital markets.

Moody’s said the UAE’s credit profile remains resilient despite regional developments, supported by strong institutional backing and significant fiscal reserves.

The review also reflects the country’s progress in expanding non-oil revenues and advancing its economic diversification strategy, supported by effective risk management and prudent financial policies.

Separately, S&P Global Ratings on March 6 affirmed the UAE’s AA/A-1+ sovereign rating for both local and foreign currency debt with a stable outlook, citing the strength of the government’s consolidated financial position and substantial fiscal and external reserves.

S&P said these buffers provide policy flexibility to navigate geopolitical and economic challenges while reinforcing investor confidence in the UAE’s stability and attractiveness as a destination for global capital.

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