Back to all insights news

Markets look through Trump-Powell drama as momentum favours risk assets

Political pressure from President Donald Trump could undermine the Fed’s independence, prompting investors to reassess dollar exposure

Vijay Valecha
Vijay Valecha

13 January, 2026

Markets look through Trump-Powell drama as momentum favours risk assets
Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell/Image: Getty Images

TT

16

Global markets remain finely balanced between resilient growth signals and rising political and geopolitical uncertainty. US equities continue to trade near record highs, supported by a soft-landing narrative and steady liquidity conditions, even as questions around Federal Reserve independence and renewed geopolitical flashpoints drive sharp moves in gold, currencies and oil.

In this market comment, Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, assesses the latest developments across equities, commodities, currencies and energy, and outlines what current price action and positioning signal for investors in the days ahead.

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial

US markets

SPX rose by 1.5 per cent last week, reaching an all-time high close at $6,966. This morning, during the Asian trading session, SPX is down 0.56 per cent.

Last week’s softer December non-farm payrolls print reinforced the soft-landing narrative rather than raising recession concerns. The unemployment rate eased to 4.4 per cent. Markets are now pricing in almost a non-existent chance of a Fed Rate Cut in January. Today’s price action shows more calm than caution, as investors feel comfortable with growth moderating but not breaking. The underlying fundamentals are very supportive. While political headlines and noise around the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell have added short-term volatility, markets continue to look through this and focus on earnings, liquidity and macro stability.

This week’s key data: CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday and GDP on Thursday, will be important, but unless inflation surprises meaningfully to the upside, the data flow should remain equity-friendly. The earnings season also kicks off with major financials reporting, including JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock on Thursday. These results will be closely watched for signals on credit quality, margins and capital markets activity.

From a technical and options positioning standpoint, the setup remains constructive. The index has formed a Morning Star pattern, signalling bullish momentum, and continues to respect a rising trendline connecting the November 20, December 17 and January 2 lows. The options positioning data also supports a push higher for the SPX, coupled with subdued implied volatility, positive dealer gamma, and steady 0 DTE flows, helping cushion pullbacks. Longer-dated hedging remains measured, suggesting prudence rather than fear. Support levels are seen at Friday’s low at $6,918, followed by last week’s low at $6,890. On the upside, resistance is seen at the all-time high of $6,978, followed by the psychological $7,000 level. Overall, momentum, structure and positioning point to continued upside, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than the start of a deeper correction.

Gold and silver

Gold rises higher: Is a $3,400 breakout next as dollar stumbles?
Image credit: Getty Images

Gold closed above $4,500 on Friday and is up 1.5 per cent today, reaching new record highs and briefly hitting $4,600 per ounce. This exponential rise was driven by growing geopolitical tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, which increased demand for safe-haven assets. Ongoing unrest in Iran, renewed US military pressure on Venezuela, and uncertainty about the Fed, following Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the Trump administration threatened him with criminal action over Congressional testimony, have all added to concerns about central bank credibility.

Adding to the bullish momentum, Friday’s US labour data showed weaker job growth (NFP +50K vs. 66K expected), reinforcing expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year. This backdrop favours non-yielding assets like gold. Moreover, the US dollar has retreated from a one-month high, further boosting bullion.

Silver also jumped to record highs, reflecting the same macro and geopolitical drivers. The broader outlook for both precious metals remains meaningfully bullish, with haven flows likely to dominate amid ongoing geopolitical developments.

On the daily charts, gold may face resistance around $4,655 on the ascending trendline formed by joining the highs of Oct 27, Nov 13 and Dec 26, 2025. Support lies at the psychological level of $4,500. Silver is trading at an all-time high, having crossed $84.40 in the Asian session today. Silver may face resistance around $85, while support is seen at Friday’s high of $80.50.

Read: Global central bank chiefs back Fed’s Powell amid Trump threat

US Dollar Index (DXY)

US Fed
Image credit: Getty Images

The US dollar has reversed sharply after two weeks of gains and is now back below the 99 handle, down around 0.32 per cent near 98.89. The pullback follows reports that US federal prosecutors are probing Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve building renovations. The episode has revived concerns that political pressure from President Donald Trump could undermine the Fed’s independence, prompting investors to reassess dollar exposure. What had been a yield-supported rally has quickly given way to credibility risk.

US data has added another layer of complexity. NFP rose by just 50,000 in December, below November’s revised 56,000 and below expectations. While the report keeps the door open for near-term Fed easing, it does little to support aggressive rate-cut pricing. But rather, the political overhang has dominated, overwhelming what would otherwise be a modestly dollar-positive backdrop. As a result, the nfp dollar gains have unwound quickly.

EUR/USD has benefited from the dollar’s retreat, with the pair moving higher on renewed confidence that US policy will remain constrained by institutional checks. That said, upside may be limited as easing euro-area inflation dampens expectations for further ECB tightening. In contrast, USD/JPY hit around a one-year high today and remains elevated despite the softer dollar tone, supported by rising Japanese yield expectations tied to snap election speculation and further fiscal expansion.

On the technical front, the dollar is taking support from its 200-day SMA of 98.824. If the index breaks below, the next support lies at the confluence of the 9-day and 100-day SMA of 98.6. Resistance lies at the psychological level of 99. The EURUSD pair has reversed its two weeks of losses and is up 0.43 per cent, at around 1.1684. Support lies at 50-day SMA of 1.1653. Resistance lies at 1.1703, a previous support turned resistance.

Crude oil

Oil August 1
Image: Pixabay

Oil prices are trading higher on Monday after ending last week in the green. WTI rose by 2.45 per cent last week and is up 0.59 per cent today.

Oil prices are supported by protests in Iran, raising fears that oil supplies from the OPEC country could be disrupted. There have even been calls for oil workers to stop working, which could put about 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports at risk. US President Donald Trump has warned he may intervene if force is used against protesters and is expected to meet his advisers to discuss options on Iran. A US intervention in the matter could fuel further geopolitical tensions, adding to the bullish momentum.

Read: Oil set to weaken as surplus builds despite geopolitical risks: Goldman

However, the price gains appear limited as Venezuela is expected to restart oil exports. Trump said last week that the Venezuelan government is expected to hand over up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. This has triggered a rush among oil companies to find tankers and organise shipments from Venezuela’s damaged ports.From a technical perspective, WTI is trading above 9 and 21 SMA. Daily RSI is at 68, indicating strong buying momentum building up. On the 1-hour chart, immediate support is at $58.8 followed by $57.7 which coincides with the 200 SMA and 8th Jan 2026 breakout. Resistance is seen at $59.8, followed by $60.2. Brent has immediate support at $62.6 and resistance is at $63.5 on the 1-hour chart.

Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran

Trump’s trade policy is under legal pressure as the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump’s existing tariffs.

Reuters
Reuters

13 January, 2026

Trump threatens 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran
Image: Getty Images

TT

16

President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25 per cent on any trade with the US, as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 per cent on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Tariffs are paid by US importers of goods from those countries. Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years. It exports much of its oil to China, with Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India among its other top trading partners.

“This Order is final and conclusive,” Trump said without providing any further detail.

There was no official documentation from the White House of the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran’s trading partners. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Chinese embassy in Washington criticised Trump’s approach, saying China will take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its interests and opposed “any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.”

“China’s position against the indiscriminate imposition of tariffs is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems,” a spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in Washington said on X.

Japan and South Korea, which agreed on trade deals with the US last year, said on Tuesday they are closely monitoring the development.

“We … plan to take any necessary measures once the specific actions of the US government become clear,” South Korea’s trade ministry said in a statement.

Japan’s deputy chief cabinet secretary Masanao Ozaki told reporters that Tokyo will “carefully examine the specific content of any measures as they become clear, as well as their potential impact on Japan, and will respond appropriately.”

Iran, which had a 12-day war with US ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the US military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.

Trump has said the US may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran’s opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations in Iran

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment. US-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people – 510 protesters and 89 security personnel – since the protests began on December 28.

While air strikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, “diplomacy is always the first option for the president,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with U.S. adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump’s trade policy is under legal pressure as the US Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump’s existing tariffs.

Iran exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank’s most recent data.

Read: India exports surge in November despite Trump’s steep tariffs

Riyadh Metro extension: Five new stations announced

The project forms part of ongoing efforts to complete the capital’s public transport network while linking vital areas and residential communities

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

13 January, 2026

Riyadh Metro extension: Five new stations announced
Image credit: Getty Images

TT

16

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City announced the award of the project to design, construct, and complete the Red Line expansion of the Riyadh Metro, extending the existing line by 8.4 kilometres. The move represents a new phase in strengthening the capital’s public transport network and enhancing connectivity across key districts.

The extension will run from King Saud University to the Diriyah Gate Development project and include five new stations. The project forms part of ongoing efforts to complete the capital’s public transport network while linking vital areas, residential communities, and major educational, cultural, and healthcare centers, a Saudi Press Agency report said.

Read more-Riyadh Metro: 100 million riders, bright new 5:30am start

The project continues Riyadh’s ongoing development journey under the era of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, with continuous support and guidance from Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Saudi Crown Prince, Prime Minister, and chairman of the Board of Directors of the Royal Commission for Riyadh City.

It builds on the achievements of the Riyadh Public Transport Project, inaugurated under the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques in November 2024. Since its launch, the metro has served as the backbone of the capital’s public transport network, supporting the city’s long-term urban and mobility objectives.

Growing demand and ridership

Minister of state, cabinet member, and CEO of the Royal Commission for Riyadh City Eng Ibrahim Al Sultan emphasised that the Red Line extension project enhances the city’s public transport network and completes the commission’s efforts to develop a sustainable urban transport ecosystem. The project links Riyadh’s key centers, residential communities, and cultural and educational landmarks.

He noted that the extension responds to growing demand among residents and visitors for public transport since operations began in late 2024. Total ridership has exceeded 173 million passengers since inauguration, reflecting public confidence in the metro’s efficiency and service quality.

The new extension includes the construction of 7.1 kilometres of deep underground tunnels and 1.3 kilometres of elevated tracks, alongside new stations. Two stations will be located at King Saud University, serving the medical city, health colleges, and the university concourse.

Three additional stations will be located in Diriyah, including one planned as a future interchange with Line 7. The project is scheduled for completion in approximately six years.

ADNOC plugs the Abu Dhabi–Dubai highway into the EV fast lane

ADNOC Distribution said the site is the sixth-largest superfast charging facility globally and the largest across the Middle East, Africa, and Turkey

Neesha Salian
Neesha Salian

13 January, 2026

ADNOC plugs the Abu Dhabi–Dubai highway into the EV fast lane
Image: Supplied

TT

16

ADNOC Distribution has launched one of the world’s largest superfast electric vehicle charging hubs on the main highway linking Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as it moves ahead with plans to electrify the UAE’s national highway network by the end of 2027.

The new EV charging “Megahub”, located at Saih Shuaib on the E11 highway, features 60 high-speed charging points and can charge most electric vehicles from 0 to 80 per cent in around 20 minutes.

ADNOC Distribution said the site is the sixth-largest superfast charging facility globally and the largest across the Middle East, Africa, and Turkey.

Highway rollout targets 20 EV hubs by 2027

ADNOC Distribution said the Megahub is part of a broader plan to roll out 20 EV charging hubs across UAE highways by the end of 2027, with 15 expected to open by the end of 2026.

The programme aims to enable long-distance EV travel across the country and support the transition toward lower-emission mobility.

Engineer Sharif Al Olama, undersecretary for energy and petroleum affairs at the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, said the project supports national policy goals.

“The inauguration of ADNOC Distribution’s EV Megahub is a significant step in implementing the UAE’s National Electric Vehicles Policy and advancing our vision for sustainable mobility across the nation,” Al Olama said.

“The hub stands out for its strategic location on the E11 highway, one of the country’s most vital corridors, providing integrated services for road users and intercity commuters.”

He added that the expansion of fast-charging infrastructure is central to the UAE’s long-term transport strategy.

“Expanding the high-speed charging network is central to our strategy to cut energy consumption in transport and drive the transformational ‘Global EV Market’ initiative, which aims to see electric vehicles represent 50 per cent of all cars on UAE roads by 2050,” he said.

Shift toward electric mobility

The UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has set a target for battery-electric vehicles to account for half of all vehicles on the country’s roads by mid-century.

ADNOC Distribution CEO Engineer Bader Saeed Al Lamki said the Megahub reflects the company’s evolution beyond traditional fuel retailing.

“ADNOC Distribution has powered journeys since 1973 and today, we are building the future of mobility with the UAE’s largest superfast EV charging hub,” Al Lamki said.

“Our first EV Mega hub is strategically located along a vital highway that keeps our nation moving and is also the first The Hub by ADNOC location dedicated to the specific needs of inter-city commuters.”

The Megahub also marks the opening of the latest “The Hub by ADNOC” service station, a format that combines fuel, EV charging, and retail offerings at a larger scale than traditional stations. The Saih Shuaib site is the first designed specifically for commuters and includes a coworking space for customers travelling between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

ADNOC Distribution said the concept builds on its earlier community-focused launches and is part of a strategy to reshape roadside retail.

EV charging network expansion

Under its E2GO brand, ADNOC Distribution operates one of the UAE’s largest EV charging networks, with more than 400 charging points installed nationwide and a target of up to 750 by 2028.

The company operates more than 560 service stations across the UAE and said its existing footprint positions it to scale EV charging infrastructure in line with rising demand and the country’s electrification targets.

Aldo Bensadoun on the soul behind a global footwear empire

The founder of the Aldo Group on why the perfect shoe starts with a good heart, the brand’s popular ‘ITSANDAL’, and the emotional legacy he has spent a lifetime building

Neesha Salian
Neesha Salian

13 January, 2026

Aldo Bensadoun on the soul behind a global footwear empire
Image: Supplied

TT

16

At 80-plus, Aldo Bensadoun doesn’t just walk into a room; he brings it to life. Most people his age might seek a quiet corner, but the founder of ALDO radiates energy and warmth, talking about “love, respect, and integrity” with the enthusiasm of someone who just opened their first shop yesterday.

I caught up with the footwear legend at a recent event held at the ALDO flagship in Dubai Mall. Bensadoun was in the thick of the action, as animated buyers clamoured for a photo with him, phones raised to capture the moment.

As we moved away from the bustling displays to a quieter corner of the store, the hum of the mall seemed to fade, making room for a more engaging conversation: one about why the perfect shoe starts with a good heart, the brand’s popular ‘ITSANDAL’, and the emotional legacy he has spent a lifetime building.

Bensadoun leans in, giving me his full attention. “To me, this is an incredible region,” he says, gesturing toward the energy spilling from the mall into the store. “When you’re tired, you should come to Dubai. It gives you energy. It’s a dynamic place.”

The irony isn’t lost on me; Bensadoun is the one bringing energy to the space, seated beneath the spotlights of the store. He is charming and self-effacing, his warmth undeniable.

Despite building a global empire spanning 115 countries, he talks about business as a “purpose,” not a profit machine.

His partnership with Apparel Group brings this vision to life in the Gulf region, ensuring that each store, whether in Dubai, Montreal, Mumbai or Johannesburg, delivers the same experience, the same care, and the same “love.”

When our conversation turns to his family, the high-energy executive softens. Footwear isn’t just a career, it’s a bloodline. Both his father and grandfather were in the trade, and speaking of them, his voice carries a weight of respect.

“My father was always a model to me,” he reflects. “He always said: be honest, be true to people, and listen to them.” These aren’t just company values posted in a breakroom; they are the quiet force behind everything he does. For Bensadoun, leadership isn’t about being the “front man,” it’s about listening and understanding, a trait inherited from generations before him.

When comfort matters as much as style

Bensadoun is a realist. In the 70s, a simple clog, his first design, was enough to start a revolution. Today, customers want the look of a stiletto with the feel of a cloud. He frames comfort not as a technical challenge, but as a human necessity.

“For the last 10 years, we’ve worked extremely hard to make sure our shoes are extremely comfortable,” he says. This effort led to Pillow Walk technology, the signature cushion in their viral “ITSandals”. His goal is simple: no pain for fashion. The ITSandal should be the one you actually want to wear until 2am.

Leaving the world in a better place

Looking after customers also means caring for the planet. ALDO was the first fashion footwear and accessories company globally to achieve climate-neutral certification. But Bensadoun emphasises the human side over corporate bragging.

“As human beings, we have a role to make sure we leave the world in a healthy position,” he says earnestly. This philosophy shapes everything from sustainable packaging to the vegan-first mission of sister brand Call It Spring.

Whether expanding into new markets or nurturing partnerships, Bensadoun’s message is refreshingly simple. He doesn’t focus on market share; he talks about trust and integrity.

“We look for partners who share the same values, honesty and integrity,” he says. Every storefront, from Dubai to Montreal, is an opportunity to practice being a “better human being.”

His collaboration with Apparel Group exemplifies this approach, combining shared values with local insight to ensure each store delivers the same experience worldwide.

As our conversation wraps, the quiet enclave is overtaken as the crowd spills back in. Bensadoun doesn’t pull away; instead, he seems to dissolve into the mix, answering questions from fans and leaning in for selfies with the same genuine interest he gave our interview.

As he is pulled further into the flurry of activity, he pauses to catch my eye one last time, offering a cheerful wave as if to say the work is never done. In this moment, amid the lights, the energy, and the constant hum of Dubai, Bensadoun remains the same curious designer at heart — proving that the most enduring empires are built not just with scale, but one heartfelt, and very comfortable, step at a time.

Read: Martha Stewart on choosing Dubai to launch her brand’s first standalone retail store

Polygreen launches reusable foodware platform supporting UAE circular economy goal

The launch aligns with the UAE’s recent legislation to phase out single-use plastic products, reinforcing national efforts to promote sustainable consumption patterns and circular economy models

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

13 January, 2026

Polygreen launches reusable foodware platform supporting UAE circular economy goal
Image: Supplied

TT

16

Polygreen has launched “Again, Please”, a reusable foodware system designed to replace single-use plastics, at the World Future Energy Summit (WFES) at ADNEC Centre Abu Dhabi, as the UAE accelerates its shift towards a circular economy.

As part of the launch, reusable hot and cold cups from the Again, Please system are being deployed across participating exhibitors at ADNEC Centre Abu Dhabi throughout WFES. The initiative offers a live demonstration of how reusable foodware can operate at scale during one of the region’s largest sustainability-focused events. Again, Please is also being showcased at the Polygreen stand, highlighting the importance of circular infrastructure in reducing waste across large venues and events.

The launch aligns with the UAE’s recent legislation to phase out single-use plastic products, reinforcing national efforts to promote sustainable consumption patterns and circular economy models.

“The UAE has taken decisive steps to address plastic waste through regulation and policy. Again, Please demonstrates how policy, infrastructure, and proven reusable packaging solutions which support behavioural change can work together. By replacing single-use cups with a practical, scalable reuse model, we are helping business partners move from intention to direct impact,” said Athanasios Polychronopoulos, chairman and group chief executive officer at Polygreen.

Athanasios Polychronopoulos, chairman and group chief executive officer at Polygreen

Reusable foodware system

Again, Please is a closed-loop, reverse logistics reusable foodware system designed for events, exhibitions, entertainment venues, and HoReCa operators. Beyond cups, the solution offers customised reusable packaging formats supported by end-to-end infrastructure, including on-site collection points, logistics, industrial washing, and redeployment, ensuring hygiene, convenience, and operational efficiency.

A core component of the system is the Again, Please wash hub located in the Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi. The facility, the first of its kind in the UAE, enables high-volume, food-grade washing and rapid turnaround, ensuring reusable packaging is safely returned to circulation.

“Our goal with Again, Please is to make reuse simple, accessible, and commercially viable. By providing the full infrastructure behind the scenes, from washing and logistics to on-ground deployment, we enable HoReCa operators and venues to move away from single-use foodware while elevating their customer experience,” added Theodossios Kassapantoniou, general manager of Again, Please.

Theodossios Kassapantoniou, general manager of Again, Please

Read: Food waste: Is it a ‘wasted’ opportunity?

Ahead of its official debut at WFES, Again, Please was piloted at several events in Abu Dhabi, achieving high return rates and strong consumer participation in line with international best practices.

By replacing disposable foodware with reusable alternatives, the system supports partners in reducing landfill waste, lowering the carbon footprint associated with single-use products, and delivering measurable ESG outcomes.

The launch of Again, Please at WFES underscores the growing role of reusable foodware solutions in advancing the UAE’s sustainability agenda, including waste reduction targets, circular economy frameworks, and public-private collaboration.

More news in insights