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Dubai’s Supy wants to fix restaurants’ biggest profit leak, and it starts in the kitchen

As rising costs squeeze restaurant margins globally, Dubai-founded Supy is expanding across 42 countries by using AI to help hospitality groups cut waste, control inventory and turn back-of-house operations into a profit driver 

Neesha Salian
Neesha Salian

09 May, 2026

Dubai’s Supy wants to fix restaurants’ biggest profit leak, and it starts in the kitchen
Image: Supplied

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As restaurant operators battle rising food costs, labour shortages and increasingly thin margins, attention is shifting from flashy front-of-house experiences to a less visible battleground: the kitchen. Dubai-born Supy is betting that better control over inventory, procurement and wastage can unlock significant savings for restaurant groups, and the strategy is gaining traction well beyond the Gulf.

Now operating in over 40 countries across the Middle East, the UK and Asia-Pacific, the company works with major hospitality groups including Rikas Hospitality Group, Addmind Hospitality and Sketch, using AI to help operators track food costs in real time and reduce inefficiencies.

In this interview, Dani El Zein, co-founder and CEO of Supy , explains why the future of restaurant profitability will be decided behind the kitchen door, and how AI is turning operational data into real-time decisions.

Tell us about Supy.

Supy is the operating system for multi-location restaurant groups. We give operators complete visibility into their back of house, what they’re spending, what they’re wasting, and where their margins are going, with AI built into the core from day one.

Most restaurant groups running 10, 20, 50 locations are still managing purchasing and inventory on spreadsheets, ERP systems, or systems built 15 years ago, and the margin pressure that creates is real and massive. Supy fixes that.

We connect your purchases, kitchen, sales, recipes, wastage, stock, and all your data into one intelligent layer that doesn’t just show you what happened but tells you what to do about it. We’re live across 42 countries with strong footholds in the Middle East, the UK, and Asia Pacific, and the product travels because the problem is universal.

Margin pressure and supply chain complexity don’t care what city you’re in.

Supy is a UAE-born business that has expanded regionally, but also internationally in the UK, Australia and Hong Kong. What was the secret to successfully exporting the platform? And how do the markets differ?

The secret starts with where we were born. Dubai is not a typical SaaS market. When we launched, we were not competing with other inventory platforms or back-of-house tools. We were competing with Oracle, NetSuite, Microsoft Dynamics. Full ERPs.

That forced us to build something far more modular and configurable than we ever would have if we had started in London or New York. We had to match the flexibility of an enterprise system while staying laser focused on restaurants.

That decision, made out of pure necessity in our earliest days, turned out to be our biggest international advantage. When we expanded into the UK, Australia, and Hong Kong, every market had different workflows, different supplier dynamics, different operational structures, and Supy could bend to fit all of them.

Beyond that, every market tests you differently. The UK is our most competitive arena, operators are sophisticated, they know the category, they have seen the alternatives, and they will stress test every corner of your product before they sign.

Australia is about ROI clarity; minimum wage pressure is real, and operators need to know the system pays for itself fast. Hong Kong is everything at once, fast-moving, high-density, globally minded operators who want enterprise capability at startup speed.

You just have to commit, hire people already embedded in each market, and back them properly.

Dani, you have run a restaurant yourself. Has that helped you understand what restaurants really need, rather than just being another tech solution in search of a market?

Absolutely, and I think it shows in the product in ways that are hard to fake. When you have stood in a kitchen, when you have dealt with a delivery at the back door at 7am, when you have tried to reconcile what was ordered versus what actually arrived while your prep team is waiting, you think about software completely differently.

You stop designing for the demo and start designing for the moment. Every workflow in Supy, every click, every screen, is built around how an operator actually thinks and moves, not how a product manager imagined they might. That is something our customers notice very quickly. They open the platform, and it just makes sense. It reflects the reality of their operation rather than forcing their operation to adapt to ours.

Most restaurant tech is built by people who understand technology. Supy is built by people who understand restaurants. That is a fundamentally different starting point, and it changes everything about what you build and how you build it

You mentioned that “back of house” operations – in the kitchen – are key to improving restaurant groups’ performance. Why is that?

Because the back of house is where the money is actually made or lost. Everyone obsesses over the front of house, the experience, the service, the ambiance. But your profitability is determined by what happens behind the kitchen door.

Food cost is typically 20-35 per cent of revenue, and most operators are managing it blind. They do not know their actual food cost in real time, they do not know if their recipes are being followed, they do not know which locations are over ordering. They find out at the end of the month when the numbers come in and by then the money is already gone.

Supy brings that visibility into the present. Recipe costs down to the ingredient level, actual versus theoretical consumption, trends across locations so you can act before a problem becomes a pattern. Front of house drives revenue. Back of house determines whether any of that revenue actually becomes profit

What are Supy’s competitive differentiators?

A few things separate us, and they compound on each other. First is depth. Supy is not a lightweight inventory tool. It is a system built to handle the complexity of serious multi-location operations, the kind of configurability and workflow depth that you would historically only get from an ERP.

Second is integrations. We connect with the widest range of POS systems, accounting platforms, and supplier networks in the market, which means Supy sits at the center of your entire operation rather than being another siloed tool.

Third is our technology infrastructure. We built on a world-class tech stack from day one, which means the platform is fast, reliable, and scales cleanly whether you are running five locations or 500.

Fourth is AI, and I do not mean AI as a feature we bolted on. The intelligence layer is core to how Supy works, it is what turns your operational data into decisions rather than just reports. And finally, support. This is one we hear constantly from customers who have come from other platforms. When something happens, a real person who understands your operation picks up.

At the scale our customers operate, downtime or confusion is not a minor inconvenience, it is a business problem, and we treat it that way.

How fundamental is AI to Supy’s business model? And what are the advantages of that AI for your restaurant group clients?

We started as a system of record. Now we are a system of intelligence and that is a fundamentally different thing. The intelligence layer sits across your entire operation and turns data into decisions.

Anomaly detection catches a food cost spike at one of your outlets before it becomes a trend. AI invoice processing scans every supplier invoice, matches it, and flags any pricing discrepancy before approval. Suppliers behave differently when they know every line is being checked. AI sales forecasting and predictive ordering means your purchasing is no longer based on gut feelings, it is based on a model that understands your demand patterns across every location.

The direction we are heading is agentic AI, food cost agents that do not just flag problems but act on them. The shift is from having a system to having a co-pilot.

You have clients such as Corrigan Collection and Sketch in the UK for example. Who else do you work with, and how have you persuaded such strong brands to work with you?

Our client base spans some of the most respected operators in the world. In the Middle East, groups like Rikas Hospitality (part of Ennismore), which is behind Gigi Beach Club, Mimi Kakushi, and Maison Revka. There’s also Addmind Hospitality, Nammos, Ce La Vi, The Address Coffee and Home Bakery.

In Australia, we work with brands like Zeus Street Greek and Mulberry Group, serious multi-location operators who represent exactly the kind of growth-focused restaurant business Supy is built for. In Asia Pacific more broadly, groups like Dough Bros who operate across Hong Kong, China, and Thailand. In the UK, alongside Corrigan Collection and Sketch, we are growing quickly with operators like Poke Shack, You Me Sushi, and Burger and Sauce.

As for how we earn them, there is no shortcut. Hospitality is a word of mouth industry. You deliver for one operator, they tell another. When we entered the UK, strong partners like Lightspeed and Williams Stanley & Co helped open doors. But operators of that calibre sign because they have done their due diligence, and they believe the product will deliver.

The only thing that really matters is making sure it does.

What keeps restaurant owners awake at night? And how does Supy help them?

Not knowing if they are making or losing money. That is genuinely the answer.

You can have a full restaurant every night and still be losing money because your food cost is out of control, your recipes are not being followed, your suppliers are overcharging you on deliveries, and nobody caught it. The numbers only show up at the end of the month and by then the damage is done. What keeps operators up at night is that feeling of flying blind. Revenue looks fine, the restaurant feels busy, but the margin is quietly disappearing, and they do not know where. Supy fixes that.

We give operators a real-time view of exactly where their money is going, down to the ingredient, down to the location, down to the supplier. So instead of finding out on the 30th that you had a bad month, you know on Tuesday that something is wrong, and you fix it on Wednesday.

You claim to reduce restaurant costs by 20 per cent. Where are these savings made?

Most operators we speak to don’t actually know their real food cost. They have a theoretical one sitting in a recipe card and an actual one that tells a very different story at the end of the month. That gap is where the 20 per cent operates.

Once you have visibility, the levers become obvious. Wastage that was never being recorded. Portion variance that nobody was catching – one of our clients was over-portioning a single ingredient by just a few grams across hundreds of servings a day, which added up to tens of thousands of dollars a year. Nobody had caught it because nobody had the data to catch it. Then there’s ordering decisions made on gut feel rather than actual consumption data, and supplier invoices that don’t match what was actually received.

These aren’t exotic problems. They’re happening in almost every kitchen we walk into. The savings don’t come from one big fix – they come from closing a hundred small gaps that individually look manageable but collectively are destroying the margin.

For any company buying and integrating a new technology, using it has to be easy. How long does Supy take to install and train staff on?

This is where the industry has been burned before. Legacy software that takes six months to implement and never fully works. We’ve built our entire implementation model around speed and simplicity. Most clients go live within weeks, not months.

The product itself is designed so that a kitchen porter or store manager can use it on day one – it runs on a mobile app, it’s intuitive, and we deliberately didn’t build it for finance teams sitting behind a desktop (although it works great for them too). And our implementation team is mostly former cost controllers, not software consultants. They’ve worked in kitchens, they understand the operation, and they set clients up in a way that maps to how their team actually.

And of course, we have some AI hacks that help speed things up, getting recipe and supplier data into the system much faster than a human alone could.

What does 2026 hold for Supy?

We’ve launched AI Sales Forecasting and our Command Centre, which brings all of our AI capabilities together in one place, real-time anomaly detection, predictive ordering, and the beginnings of agentic AI that does not just flag problems but acts on them.

Alongside that, we are launching our co-pilot, an AI layer that sits across your entire operation and starts making decisions on your behalf, adjusting orders, flagging variances, closing the loop without someone having to initiate it.

We are also expanding into new product verticals, production planning is a big one, giving operators the ability to plan and manage what gets produced in their kitchens based on forecasted demand rather than guesswork.

On the market side we are doubling down in the UK, Australia, and Southeast Asia where we are seeing the strongest traction, and we are entering Europe with Germany being our first move, before entering the US before the end of year.

The bigger picture is that back of house generates the richest operational data in the entire restaurant industry and it has been sitting there largely untapped. 2026 is the year we unlock it.

Are GLP-1 weight loss drugs being dangerously misunderstood in the UAE?

The rise of self-prescribed GLP-1 use is emerging as a significant public health issue, particularly as patients attempt to manage dosing, duration, and discontinuation independently, says Dr. Ihsan Almarzooqi, co-founder and managing director of Metabolic

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

09 May, 2026

Are GLP-1 weight loss drugs being dangerously misunderstood in the UAE?
Foundayo pill/Image: Supplied

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Article Summary
The UAE sees rising interest in oral GLP-1 weight loss treatments like Foundayo, but this accessibility raises concerns about misuse and unregulated online sales. Dr. Almarzooqi warns of the clinical risks of self-prescription, including contraindications and inadequate monitoring.

As demand for GLP-1 weight loss therapies accelerates globally, the UAE is witnessing a parallel surge in interest around newer formats such as oral treatments. But with accessibility increasing, so too are concerns around misuse — particularly as prescription medications begin to appear on unregulated online platforms.

For Dr. Ihsan Almarzooqi, co-founder and managing director of Metabolic, the issue is not just regulatory — it is fundamentally clinical.

“It is not acceptable, and in the UAE it is not legal,” he says, referring to the online sale of prescription-only GLP-1 therapies such as Foundayo without medical consultation.

Metabolic (formerly GluCare.Health) announced it will provide early access to Eli Lilly’s newly approved oral GLP-1 therapy, Foundayo (orforglipron), shortly after receiving approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The move makes Metabolic the first provider outside the US to offer the treatment, highlighting both its strategic partnership with Eli Lilly and the UAE’s growing status as a hub for advanced medical therapies. The development came after the Emirates Drug Establishment (EDE) formally approved Foundayo on April 3, making the UAE the second country globally to register the innovative drug.

The growing availability of oral GLP-1 medications has created a perception shift among patients, with some viewing them as over-the-counter solutions rather than tightly regulated treatments.

“The fact that it is now available as a pill makes it feel more like an over-the-counter product to some people. It is not. The format changed. The clinical requirements did not,” Almarzooqi explains.

In the UAE, federal law clearly prohibits the sale and purchase of prescription medications without a valid prescription issued by a licensed physician. However, enforcement challenges — particularly across digital channels — are exposing patients to unregulated access.

Beyond legality, the bigger concern is patient safety. GLP-1 therapies require detailed medical screening before prescription, including assessments of thyroid history, cardiovascular health, hormonal status, and existing medications.

“There are absolute contraindications. There are drug interactions. And there is no way to identify any of this through an online checkout,” he says.

Dr. Ihsan Almarzooqi, co-founder and managing director of Metabolic

A growing clinical concern

The rise of self-prescribed GLP-1 use is emerging as a significant public health issue, particularly as patients attempt to manage dosing, duration, and discontinuation independently.

“It is a serious problem, and I think we are only beginning to see the consequences,” Almarzooqi says.

He outlines multiple layers of risk. Patients may unknowingly fall into contraindicated categories, such as those with a history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN2 syndrome. Others may misuse dosing protocols, escalating too quickly and triggering severe side effects.

“GLP-1 medications require gradual titration. Patients who escalate too quickly experience severe nausea, vomiting, and dehydration,” he explains.

Equally concerning is the lack of understanding around treatment discontinuation.

“Stopping without a maintenance plan almost always leads to rapid weight regain. Patients then blame the medication, rather than understanding that obesity is a chronic condition requiring long-term management.”

Much of the demand for GLP-1 therapies is driven by their association with rapid weight loss. However, Almarzooqi cautions that patients often misunderstand how these medications work — particularly when used without clinical guidance.

“The first is that weight loss equals fat loss. It does not,” he says.

Without body composition monitoring, patients may be losing significant muscle mass alongside fat. Studies suggest that 20 to 40 per cent of total weight lost on GLP-1 therapy can come from lean muscle, depending on lifestyle factors.

“This matters because muscle is metabolically active tissue. When you lose it, your resting metabolic rate drops,” he explains.

This metabolic shift can create a cycle of plateau during treatment and rapid weight regain after discontinuation, particularly if patients stop abruptly.

“The scale can look very encouraging while the metabolic picture is quietly deteriorating.”

A treatment, not a shortcut

Another area of confusion is whether GLP-1 therapies are fundamentally diabetes drugs or weight management treatments.

“GLP-1 receptor agonists were originally developed for type 2 diabetes management,” Almarzooqi says. “Foundayo is approved as a weight management treatment.”

This distinction is critical, as eligibility criteria, dosing strategies, and monitoring requirements differ depending on the clinical context. “What I want patients to understand is that weight management approval does not mean it is appropriate for everyone who wants to lose weight. It is a prescription treatment for people with obesity or with overweight and related health conditions.”

While patients purchasing GLP-1 medications online may have some awareness of common side effects, Almarzooqi notes that understanding is often superficial. “They understand the common side effects in broad terms… What they do not understand are the more serious warning signs that require immediate medical attention,” he says.

These include symptoms such as severe abdominal pain, persistent vomiting, or signs of pancreatitis — all of which require clinical intervention. “They also do not understand how to manage the common side effects properly… Without a dietitian involved from the beginning, patients are managing this blind.” This gap highlights a fundamental limitation of unregulated access: the absence of structured clinical support. “A disclaimer page is not clinical support.”

Why monitoring is non-negotiable

As GLP-1 therapies are increasingly used for long-term weight management, ongoing medical supervision is becoming critical.

“It is not optional,” Almarzooqi says. “These are chronic medications being used for a chronic condition.”

Long-term monitoring includes tracking thyroid function, cardiovascular health, muscle mass, nutritional status, and metabolic outcomes. Without this oversight, patients risk undetected complications.

“The longer-term safety data on some of these agents is still maturing… Patients on unregulated channels have none of this.”

He also highlights a broader systemic issue: patients purchasing medications outside regulated frameworks are effectively invisible to pharmacovigilance systems that track adverse effects. The growing accessibility of GLP-1 therapies presents a complex challenge for regulators and healthcare providers.

“The reason patients seek these medications outside clinical channels is partly cost, partly access, and partly a healthcare system that has historically underserved obesity,” Almarzooqi says.

Addressing misuse, therefore, requires more than stricter enforcement. While regulators must act against illegal online sales, healthcare systems must also improve legitimate access for eligible patients. “What is needed is a parallel response,” he explains.

This includes making treatment more affordable, reducing administrative barriers, and improving public understanding of how these therapies should be used.

At Metabolic, GLP-1 therapy is embedded within a comprehensive clinical framework designed to optimise outcomes and minimise risks.

“When a patient comes to us, they go through what we call a Metabolic Baseline,” Almarzooqi says.

This includes a full assessment of hormonal, metabolic, and cardiovascular health, followed by ongoing monitoring through physician consultations, dietitian support, and advanced diagnostic tools.

“The medication is the same. The outcome is not,” he says, contrasting this approach with self-medication.

A long-term view of treatment

Ultimately, the rise of GLP-1 therapies reflects a significant shift in how obesity is treated — from a lifestyle issue to a chronic medical condition requiring structured intervention.

“Obesity is a chronic, complex, and often relentless condition,” Almarzooqi says.

While new formats such as oral medications are improving accessibility, they also risk reinforcing the misconception that treatment is simple.

“GLP-1 medications are a genuine advance… But they are tools within a clinical framework, not solutions outside of one.”

As demand continues to grow, the challenge for healthcare systems, regulators, and providers will be to ensure that access does not come at the expense of safety — and that patients understand that the effectiveness of these therapies depends as much on the care around them as the medication itself.

Hajj 2026: UAE reveals rules every pilgrim must follow

The ministry said pilgrims should follow approved health guidelines, receive required vaccinations, and adhere to medical advice before and during travel

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

08 May, 2026

Hajj 2026: UAE reveals rules every pilgrim must follow

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The Ministry of Health and Prevention (MoHAP) in UAE has intensified efforts to promote health preparedness and preventive care for UAE pilgrims ahead of the Hajj season 2026, stressing the importance of early medical readiness to ensure a safe and comfortable pilgrimage experience.

The ministry said pilgrims should follow approved health guidelines, receive required vaccinations, and adhere to medical advice before and during travel to reduce potential health risks during the annual pilgrimage.

According to a WAM report, the initiative reflects the UAE’s proactive approach to strengthening preventive healthcare and supporting the wellbeing of citizens throughout their Hajj journey. Authorities are also continuing coordination efforts to ensure pilgrims receive accurate health guidance and access to essential medical support.

Read more-Hajj 2026: Saudi announces up to SAR100,000 fine ahead of pilgrimage

Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh, Minister of Health and Prevention, said the UAE is committed to developing an advanced preventive healthcare system that prioritises readiness and public awareness.

“The UAE adopts a proactive vision to build an advanced preventive healthcare model that goes beyond service delivery to strengthening readiness and raising awareness to support informed health decisions,” Al Sayegh said.

Focus on vaccinations and medical preparedness

MoHAP stressed that receiving mandatory vaccinations before travelling is essential, particularly the meningococcal vaccine, alongside other recommended immunisations in line with approved medical guidelines.

Officials said the measures are aimed at reducing the spread of infectious diseases and helping pilgrims complete Hajj rituals safely and comfortably.

The ministry and health authorities also urged pilgrims to visit healthcare centres early to complete medical examinations and confirm their fitness for travel, particularly older adults, pregnant women, and individuals living with chronic illnesses.

Al Sayegh said cooperation between national entities would strengthen response efforts and help deliver the best possible healthcare environment for UAE pilgrims.

“He added that these efforts further reinforce the UAE’s position in developing impactful and forward-looking health programmes based on early planning and sustainable preparedness,” the report said.

Pilgrims advised to follow safety measures during Hajj

Authorities advised pilgrims to maintain preventive practices throughout the Hajj season, including wearing masks in crowded areas, maintaining personal hygiene, staying hydrated, and avoiding prolonged exposure to direct sunlight to minimise the risk of heat exhaustion.

Additional guidance was issued for people with chronic conditions, including carrying enough medication, keeping medical reports accessible, and following prescribed treatment plans during travel.

MoHAP said health awareness updates and guidance will continue to be shared through official communication channels, digital platforms, smart applications, websites, and SMS services during the Hajj season.

UAE to announce in-person or remote learning decision for schools: Key details

Officials stressed that the review is being conducted to ensure the safety of students, teachers and staff while maintaining the continuity of the academic process

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

08 May, 2026

UAE to announce in-person or remote learning decision for schools: Key details

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Article Summary
The UAE's Ministries of Education will announce the approved learning model for the upcoming period on May 10th, 2026. Following an assessment of the current situation, a decision on in-person or remote learning will be made, prioritising the safety of students and staff. Exams and higher education programmes requiring practical attendance will continue in person.

The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in UAE announced on Friday that the approved learning model for the upcoming period will be revealed on Sunday evening, May 10, 2026.

Authorities said the decision on whether classes will continue through in-person or remote learning will follow a full assessment of the current situation in coordination with relevant authorities. Officials stressed that the review is being conducted to ensure the safety of students, teachers and staff while maintaining the continuity of the academic process.

According to a WAM report, the ministries said educational institutions across the country remain fully prepared to shift between different learning models whenever required.

Exams to continue in-person

The ministries also confirmed that examinations and international assessments will continue in person under the approved plans. In-person learning will also remain in place for higher education programmes and academic disciplines that require practical attendance or clinical training.

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“The assessment will be done in a manner that ensures the safety of the educational community and the continuity of the educational process,” the report stated.

Officials added that any further developments or updates will be communicated through the ministries’ official channels.

6 staycation deals on Palm Jumeirah for an Eid Al Adha escape

From beachfront resorts and rooftop pools to spa credits and family-friendly offers, hotels across Palm Jumeirah are rolling out Eid Al Adha staycation packages

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

08 May, 2026

6 staycation deals on Palm Jumeirah for an Eid Al Adha escape

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Article Summary
Several Palm Jumeirah hotels are offering Eid Al Adha staycation deals for UAE residents. Packages include discounts on rooms and villas, resort credits, spa treatments, and dining offers. Options range from secluded resort-style escapes to lively social atmospheres, with family-friendly perks and flexible check-in/check-out times available at Anantara, Kempinski, Marriott, NH Collection, Radisson, and Taj Exotica resorts.

From beachfront suites and private pools to spa credits and family-friendly perks, Palm Jumeirah hotels are rolling out staycation offers for the Eid Al Adha long weekend

For UAE residents staying local this Eid Al Adha, Palm Jumeirah remains one of Dubai’s easiest options for a quick luxury escape without boarding a flight. From resort-style beachfront stays to rooftop pool experiences and family-friendly packages, hotels across the Palm are introducing special offers aimed at the long weekend crowd.

Here are six staycation deals worth considering.

Anantara The Palm Dubai Resort

Located on the eastern crescent of Palm Jumeirah, Anantara continues to position itself as one of the more secluded resort-style options on the island, known for its lagoon access villas, beachfront setting and slower-paced atmosphere.

Its Eid Al Adha offer starts from Dhs850, including up to 30 per cent off rooms and villas, daily breakfast for two adults and two children under 12, a resort credit of up to Dhs500, 10 per cent off dining and 30 per cent off spa treatments. Guests can also access early check-in from 11am and late check-out until 5pm.

The resort is also offering UAE and GCC resident rates from Dhs600 through to September 2026.

For more information, visit Anantara The Palm Dubai Resort.

Kempinski Hotel & Residences Palm Jumeirah

For travellers looking for larger suite-style accommodation and a quieter beachfront setting, Kempinski’s Palm Jumeirah property is offering Eid Al Adha packages with flexible check-in and check-out timings.

Rates start from Dhs1,350 for an Ocean View Suite, Dhs1,500 for a Palm View Suite and Dhs2,000 for a Private Pool Suite.

For more information, visit Kempinski Hotel & Residences Palm Jumeirah.

Marriott Resort Palm Jumeirah

Marriott Resort Palm Jumeirah is targeting families and guests looking for an all-in-one resort experience, combining beach access, dining, wellness facilities and children’s activities.

The Palm Reset Escape package starts from Dhs523, including breakfast, complimentary stays and dining for children under 12, spa access and two-for-one treatments.

A second package, the Palm Escape, starts from Dhs749 and includes Dhs500 in daily resort credit, private beach cabana access and use of the resort’s facilities.

Guests can also access early check-in from 10am and late check-out until 6pm.

For more information, visit Marriott Resort Palm Jumeirah.

NH Collection Dubai The Palm

Positioned on Palm West Beach, NH Collection Dubai The Palm leans into a more social atmosphere, combining rooftop pools, beach access and proximity to restaurants and nightlife.

Its current offer includes a two-nights-for-the-price-of-one package starting from Dhs350 per person. The package includes access to pools, beach facilities, gym and kids club, alongside 25 per cent off restaurants.

Two children under 12 can also stay and dine free, while late check-out is available until 3pm.

For more information, visit NH Collection Dubai The Palm.

Radisson Beach Resort Palm Jumeirah

Located close to Palm West Beach’s restaurants and beach clubs, Radisson Beach Resort is positioned more towards travellers seeking a livelier social atmosphere.

Its Eid offer starts from Dhs349 on weekdays and Dhs499 on weekends, including room upgrades, private beach access and complimentary stays and dining for children under six.

The hotel is also running a Luxury Resident Escape package from Dhs549, which includes breakfast, early check-in and late check-out until 4pm, plus 25 per cent off dining and 50 per cent off spa treatments using the code “RESSOF”.

For more information, visit Radisson Beach Resort Palm Jumeirah.

Taj Exotica Resort & Spa The Palm Dubai

Taj Exotica Resort & Spa The Palm Dubai is offering a more traditional luxury resort stay, with large rooms, beachfront access and family-oriented facilities.

Its Eid Escape package starts from Dhs700 and includes daily breakfast, beach and pool access, as well as access to the kids club and game room.

The hotel is also launching a Summer Escape package from Dhs450 from June onwards.

For more information, visit Taj Exotica Resort & Spa The Palm Dubai

When fear outbids reason: Investing through crisis, panic and long return of common sense

In moments of geopolitical shock and market panic, the real risk is not the headlines or the volatility, but the investor’s instinct to act on fear instead of fundamentals

Mohammed Sibtain
Mohammed Sibtain

08 May, 2026

When fear outbids reason: Investing through crisis, panic and long return of common sense
Image: Supplied

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Article Summary
During crises, investors often react irrationally, driven by fear and loss aversion, overriding fundamental analysis. History shows markets consistently recover, rewarding patient investors. HBZ advises clients to maintain discipline, focusing on long-term objectives and portfolio quality. The 2026 Iran conflict exemplified this, with markets rebounding sharply after an initial panic sell-off, highlighting the importance of resisting emotional reactions.

There is a particular kind of silence that falls over trading floors and family offices alike when the news turns genuinely bad. The kind that preceded the Lehman collapse in 2008. The kind that gripped the world on March 12, 2020, when markets posted their worst single-day fall since 1987. The kind that returned on the morning of March 1, 2026, when news broke that US and Israeli forces had struck Iranian military infrastructure overnight, and Brent crude opened 13 per cent higher.

In those moments, every screen turns red, every model fails, and — most dangerously — every instinct screams sell. It is precisely in those moments that the investor’s greatest enemy is not the market. It is themselves.

This is not a new problem. Behavioural finance has documented it exhaustively. Yet crisis after crisis, the pattern repeats with near-perfect fidelity: fundamentals are abandoned, momentum reverses violently, and fear becomes the dominant pricing mechanism — only to be followed, almost without exception, by a return to reason and, with it, to value.

At Habib Bank AG Zurich, we have accompanied clients through each of these episodes — the dot-com collapse, the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID crash, and now the 2026 Iran conflict. What we have observed, consistently, is that the clients who weathered these periods with the least damage were not those with the best market-timing instincts. They were those with the clearest investment framework and the discipline — supported by their advisors — to hold to it when the world around them was doing otherwise.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett

The architecture of panic

To understand why investors behave so irrationally during crises, it helps to understand how the brain is wired. Humans are loss-averse by a ratio of roughly 2:1 — the psychological pain of a loss is felt twice as intensely as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman called this prospect theory, and it was formulated in the 1970s. Decades later, it plays out in every crisis drawdown with the precision of a recurring theme.

During normal market conditions, rational actors assess earnings trajectories, discount rates, geopolitical risk premia, and cash flow multiples. These are the fundamentals — the gravitational force of markets. But when an exogenous shock strikes — a pandemic, a war, a banking collapse — the cognitive architecture shifts. The prefrontal cortex, seat of rational planning, effectively cedes control to the amygdala, the brain’s fear centre. The result is momentum-driven selling that has nothing to do with underlying business value and everything to do with the hardwired human terror of being the last one out.

In asset markets, this manifests as a peculiar decoupling: the price of a stock falls not because its earnings have changed, but because its shareholders have become afraid. The asset has not deteriorated — the perception of it has. And crucially, the US Dollar Index (DXY) — a proxy for global risk appetite — tells us the precise moment when this fear has peaked.

HBZ ADVISORY PERSPECTIVE

The private banking relationship exists precisely for moments like these. A trusted advisor’s primary role during a crisis is not to predict markets — it is to prevent clients from becoming their own worst enemy. At HBZ, our advisory conversations in times of volatility are anchored in three questions: Has your investment objective changed? Has the fundamental quality of your portfolio changed? Has your time horizon changed? If the answer to all three is no, then the only thing that has changed is the headline. And headlines are not a portfolio strategy.

The historical record: What actually happened

History is the most powerful antidote to panic, and the data from major crisis periods is unambiguous. In every significant drawdown over the past three decades, markets have not only recovered — they have surpassed prior highs by substantial margins. The table below includes the most recent episode — the 2026 Iran conflict — alongside prior crises.

The pattern is consistent across each event: the S&P 500 suffers a sharp, sentiment-driven decline that overshoots fundamental value, the DXY rallies as capital seeks the safety of the world’s reserve currency, and then — once the peak of uncertainty passes — equities recover, the dollar softens, and patient capital is rewarded.

The 2026 Iran War: A live case study in crisis investing

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military infrastructure in what the US designated Operation Epic Fury. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply transits daily — was closed by Iran within days. Brent crude, which had been trading near $72 per barrel on the eve of the conflict, surged past $112 by late March, a rise of over 55 per cent in less than four weeks. The International Energy Agency characterised it as the greatest global energy security challenge in its history.

For investors in the Gulf and globally, the immediate instinct was familiar: sell equities, buy oil, hoard dollars. And in the first five weeks of the conflict, that trade appeared to be working. The S&P 500 fell approximately 8 per cent from pre-war levels, recording five consecutive weeks of declines — a streak that had occurred only twice in the prior 15 years. The MSCI All World ex-US Index fell more than 10 per cent over the same period. European gas benchmarks nearly doubled. Airlines, logistics companies, and consumer-facing businesses repriced sharply lower as energy cost projections spiralled.

GULF CONTEXT — A REGIONAL DISRUPTION WITH GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

For GCC-based investors, this crisis carries particular weight. Tourism suffered as airspace closures disrupted travel. Gulf aluminium producers declared force majeure on some contracts following disruption to their operations. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG export contracts. The collective oil production from the GCC declined by an estimated 10 million barrels per day by mid-March. The region’s economic model — built on open straits, stable energy flows, and international connectivity — faced its most acute stress test in a generation.

And yet. By April 7, a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced. Markets responded with what analysts at JPMorgan described as euphoria returning to equities. The S&P 500 surged 2.5 per cent in a single session. The Dow recorded its largest one-day percentage gain since April 2025. By April 15, the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time in its history — having erased all war-related losses and then some. The rebound from trough to new all-time high was faster than the post-Covid recovery.

The investors who had sold in panic between late February and late March locked in real losses at precisely the wrong moment. Those who held — or added to positions at the late-March lows — participated in one of the sharpest recovery rallies in modern market history.

“The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to twelve months from now.” — Joe Seydl, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, April 2026

Several dynamics underpinned this resilience that are worth understanding. First, the conflict — for all its severity on an energy and geopolitical level — did not fundamentally impair the earnings power of the US equity market’s largest constituents. Technology companies, which now account for nearly half of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation, were largely insulated from direct energy cost exposure. Second, investors had been conditioned by a decade of policy pivots: the so-called TACO trade — a sardonic market acronym for the observed tendency of the Trump administration to de-escalate when economic pain becomes politically costly — led many institutional players to hold positions or even add exposure during the drawdown. Third, the DXY, while firm during the conflict, did not spike dramatically as it had during Covid — suggesting that this was a regional energy shock being absorbed by a resilient domestic US economy, rather than a systemic financial panic.

HBZ CLIENT EXPERIENCE — PRUDENCE AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

During the five weeks of maximum Iran war uncertainty, HBZ’s private banking teams across DIFC and Zurich maintained proactive communication with clients — not to offer predictions, but to provide structured context. Our advisors reviewed portfolio stress scenarios, reconfirmed risk tolerance profiles, and where appropriate, identified selective opportunities in quality assets that had been indiscriminately sold down. This is the HBZ philosophy made practical: in volatility, we do not step back from the conversation. We step forward into it. Prudence, in our experience, is not caution for its own sake — it is the discipline that preserves the optionality to act when others cannot.

Momentum versus fundamentals: A tale of two forces

It is worth being precise about what we mean by momentum and fundamentals, because the tension between the two is the engine of crisis investing.

Momentum is the tendency of assets that have been falling to continue falling — driven not by valuation but by the behaviour of other market participants. In a crisis, the feedback loop is self-reinforcing: prices fall, margin calls are triggered, forced sellers appear, prices fall further, and the headlines worsen. Technical levels that once provided support give way, and the narrative shifts from attractive buying opportunity to value trap.

Fundamentals, by contrast, are the slow-moving gravitational force of intrinsic value — the present value of a business’s future cash flows, its competitive position, its balance sheet. These do not change overnight because a virus emerged in Wuhan, a bank failed in Manhattan, or strikes were launched on Iranian nuclear facilities. Yet in crisis conditions, they are temporarily overwhelmed by the louder signal of fear. The 2026 episode illustrated this with unusual clarity: the underlying earnings power of US listed companies had not deteriorated materially, yet momentum sellers drove prices 8 per cent below pre-war levels in five weeks. Fundamentals then reasserted, violently, once the ceasefire catalyst arrived.

The investor’s task is not to be indifferent to crisis — real crises cause real economic damage, and distinguishing between temporary sentiment-driven dislocations and structural value impairment is genuinely difficult. The 2026 energy shock will leave lasting scars on European industrial capacity, on GCC economic confidence, and on global inflation trajectories. But the discipline of investing requires holding that distinction clearly in mind even when the world around you has abandoned it. This is the work that a private banking advisor, at their best, helps their client perform.

The dollar as a fear gauge

For investors in the GCC and wider emerging market universe, the US Dollar Index (DXY) carries particular relevance. A rising DXY is not simply a currency phenomenon — it is a barometer of global fear. When investors flee to safety, they buy US Treasuries, which requires buying US Dollars, which drives the DXY higher. Conversely, when risk appetite returns, the dollar softens, emerging market assets rally, and the carry trade revives.

In every major crisis episode in the table above, the DXY moved inversely to equities at the moment of peak distress. What was notable about the 2026 Iran conflict is that the DXY’s response was relatively muted compared to, say, the COVID-era strengthening of 3 per cent within a month — an anomaly for DXY. This suggested that institutional capital read the conflict as a geopolitical and energy shock — severe, but not systemic in the way that a credit freeze or pandemic is systemic. That reading proved correct. When oil began retreating after the ceasefire, the dollar softened, and the equity recovery was swift and broad.

For regional investors, this creates an actionable framework: when the DXY is spiking alongside falling equity markets, the conditions that historically precede a recovery are often assembling themselves quietly beneath the surface of the headlines. At HBZ, monitoring this relationship between the dollar, oil, and equity risk premium sits at the core of how we advise clients on portfolio positioning during periods of elevated geopolitical uncertainty — a skill that has particular resonance for investors whose wealth is anchored in the Gulf.

A framework for the disciplined investor

The lessons of history do not resolve to a simple buy-the-dip instruction. Not every drawdown is a buying opportunity; some reflect genuine structural deterioration. The discipline lies in a framework that distinguishes between the two — and in having an advisor who holds that framework steady on your behalf when emotion threatens to override it:

  1. Distinguish noise from signal. Ask whether the crisis has changed the earnings power or competitive position of the underlying businesses you own, or whether it has simply changed how others feel about them.
  2. Watch the DXY, not just the SPX. A DXY peak concurrent with an equity trough has historically marked the moment of maximum fear — and the inflection point of maximum opportunity.
  3. Maintain liquidity deliberately. Crisis-period opportunities are only accessible to investors who have not been forced to sell. Holding a pre-established cash allocation is not timidity — it is strategic optionality.
  4. Anchor to time horizon. The investor with a five-year horizon should be far less afraid of a six-week drawdown than the investor who has conflated their investment account with their emergency fund.
  5. Resist the narrative. Every crisis generates a dominant narrative that explains why this time is different. In 2026, it was the Strait of Hormuz — surely, the closure of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint would cascade into a permanent repricing of equities. It did not. Engage with it critically. The narrative is usually partially correct — and largely irrelevant to long-term returns.

The case for long-term patience

The data is not ambiguous. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 38 corrections of 10 per cent or more. Every single one has eventually been followed by a recovery to new highs. Morgan Stanley analysis found that over the past 75 years, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 8.4 per cent in the twelve months following a sudden external shock — whether war, pandemic, or energy crisis. The average recovery time for full bear markets has been approximately 27 months; for shallower shocks like the 2026 Iran episode, recovery was measured in weeks.

Fear is not irrational — it is a rational response to genuine uncertainty. What is irrational is allowing fear to masquerade as investment analysis. The investor who mistakes their anxiety for a market view, and acts upon it by selling quality assets at distressed prices, has done more damage to their long-term financial position than any market crisis ever could.

The history of markets is ultimately a history of human resilience. Companies adapt, economies recover, and capital — when allocated with discipline and patience — compounds. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed before. The oil price has surged before. The headlines have screamed unprecedented before. Each time, they were right about the severity of the immediate shock. Each time, they were wrong about its permanence.

“In the 20th century, the United States endured two World Wars, the Great Depression, a dozen recessions, the oil shocks, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.” — Warren Buffett

The crises change. The pattern does not.

A NOTE FROM HABIB BANK AG ZURICH

For over six decades, Habib Bank AG Zurich has served clients across the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond with a philosophy rooted in prudence, long-term stewardship, and deep personal relationship. Our Swiss heritage instils in us a particular discipline: the conviction that preserving and growing wealth across generations requires not bravado in good times, but steadiness in difficult ones. If this article has resonated with you — as an investor navigating today’s uncertainties — we would welcome the opportunity to speak with you. Our Private Banking teams in Dubai and across our global network are available to review your portfolio, stress-test your positioning, and ensure your investment framework remains aligned with your goals, not with the day’s headlines.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of Habib Bank AG Zurich’s advisory team and are intended for informational and educational purposes only. Market data referenced reflects publicly available sources including Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research, Charles Schwab, J.P. Morgan, and the Wikipedia Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran War. Nothing herein constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial instrument. Past performance of indices does not guarantee future results. Investors should seek independent financial counsel before making investment decisions. Habib Bank AG Zurich is regulated in the relevant jurisdictions in which it operates.

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