The war in Iran and the resulting surge in energy prices will impact emerging markets well beyond inflation to broader pressures on external balances, currencies and capital flows, analysts warn.

Brokerages, including J.P.Morgan and Bernstein, expect Brent prices to rise above the $100 mark if the conflict continues as Tehran has vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz and said it would fire on any ship trying to pass the crucial shipping route for oil and gas.

Brent crude futures were up $5.63, or 7.2 per cent, at $83.36 a barrel by 12:54 GMT after touching their highest since July 2024 at $85.12.

“A mere 10 per cent rise in oil prices can deteriorate current account balances (for emerging markets) by 40-60 basis points. Prolonged increases would only deepen these deficits,” analysts at ING said in a note, adding that Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines are the most exposed.

The US and Israeli air war against Iran widened, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Global financial markets have been rattled by the conflict, with both the emerging market equities and currency indexes falling to three-week lows as investors sought the safety of the US dollar.

Higher crude prices pose only a limited risk to China unless the shock is prolonged or escalates sharply, but India, with its thin oil reserves, would be among the most exposed to a sustained supply disruption, analysts said.

Goldman Sachs estimates that a supply driven jump in Brent crude from $70 to $85 would add roughly 0.7 percentage points to inflation across emerging Asia and knock about 0.5 points off economic growth, while widening current account deficits across almost every economy in the region, particularly Thailand, Singapore and South Korea.

Citigroup warned that a prolonged oil shock could “aggressively de-anchor” inflation expectations across emerging markets, with low-reserve countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Turkey facing heightened risks of capital outflows and currency slides.

Separately, J.P. Morgan’s analysts moved EMEA emerging market foreign exchange to “marketweight” on Tuesday and added Poland’s zloty to their list of “underweight” currencies.

Etihad Rail has operated a passenger train service between Al Ghuwaifat station on the Saudi border and Al Faya station in Abu Dhabi as part of ongoing trial runs, in coordination with the Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre Abu Dhabi (ADCMC).

The trial supports the continuity of vital services and provides a safe and reliable transport alternative, guided by continuous risk assessment and evolving operational circumstances.

The Al Ghuwaifat–Al Faya link is strategically significant, strengthening cross-border connectivity between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and facilitating movement to and from key ports. The route enables authorities to activate alternative transport options in line with approved response and business continuity plans, while supporting mobility for both nationals and residents.

The operation forms part of a broader set of proactive measures implemented jointly by ADCMC and relevant authorities to reinforce logistical security and infrastructure resilience. Officials said the initiative aligns with multi-scenario risk management frameworks and coordinated response mechanisms across vital sectors.

Matar Saeed Al Nuaimi, Director General of the Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre Abu Dhabi (ADCMC), emphasised that strengthening transport readiness is central to the emirate’s comprehensive response ecosystem. He noted that developments are managed under clear governance structures and integrated coordination frameworks to ensure rapid adaptation and efficient resource deployment.

He added that transport sector flexibility is closely linked to societal stability and the continuity of essential services. The centre, he said, continues to monitor developments and analyse indicators around the clock to reinforce preparedness and public confidence.

Eng Mohammed Al Shehhi, chief projects officer at Etihad Rail, said: “The operation of passenger services between Al Ghuwaifat and Al Faya as part of the trial demonstrates the readiness and flexibility of the UAE’s national railway network, which is designed to ensure the continuity of vital services in all circumstances.”

He added, “We are proud to support the joint response efforts led by the relevant authorities, providing safe, reliable, and well-organised transport solutions at a time when the continuity of the national transport ecosystem is crucial. Our teams continue to work closely with government partners to maintain sustainable operations and deliver dependable transport services, enhancing traffic flow and supporting the readiness of the national transport ecosystem.”

Officials said the activation of the route reflects advance planning and the timely deployment of alternative options when required. It demonstrates how risk assessments are translated into operational decisions that maintain service continuity, strengthen infrastructure resilience and ensure the smooth flow of movement under varying conditions.

Read: Etihad Rail passenger service: What’s on offer for UAE travellers

Zurich Insurance has raised 3.9 billion Swiss francs ($5bn) in a share sale to partly finance the acquisition of Britain’s Beazley, it said on Tuesday, sending shares in the group down sharply.

The Swiss insurer has placed 7.1 million new shares with a par value of 0.10 francs per share at 550 francs per new share, it said in a statement, which will increase its share capital from 14.6 million francs to 15.3 million.

The net proceeds will be used to partly finance the takeover of the speciality insurer Beazley. The remainder of the consideration will be funded through existing cash and new debt facilities, it added.

By 0840 GMT, shares in Zurich Insurance were down 5.4 per cent at 543 francs, their biggest daily loss since April and pushing them to the bottom of Switzerland’s blue-chip index.

Zurich said the new shares are expected to be listed and admitted to trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange on or around March 5.

Zurich said on Monday that Beazley shareholders had agreed to the terms of an 8.1 billion pound takeover bid, as the Swiss firm looks to expand its foothold in speciality insurance.

Under the deal, Beazley shareholders would receive 1,335 pence per share, comprising 1,310 pence in cash and a dividend of 25 pence.

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), an autonomous organisation under the Ministry of Education, Government of India, has announced the postponement of Class X and Class XII board examinations scheduled in several Middle Eastern countries.

In an official circular dated March 3, 2026 (Circular-2, CBSE/CE/SPPS/2026/2), the Board informed principals of CBSE-affiliated schools in Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates about the decision. The announcement follows a critical review of the current situation in parts of the Middle East, a circular posted on the entity’s official X account said.

According to the circular, the examinations that were scheduled to be held on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and Friday, March 6, 2026, for both Class X and Class XII students have been postponed. The Board stated that the new examination dates will be announced at a later time.

CBSE further noted that it will reassess the situation on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and make appropriate decisions regarding examinations scheduled from March 7, 2026, onwards.

Students have been advised to remain in regular contact with their respective schools for updates and to carefully follow official announcements issued by the Board.

The circular was issued by Dr Sanyam Bhardwaj, controller of examinations, CBSE.

Copies of the circular have been forwarded to Indian ambassadors in the United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi), Saudi Arabia (Riyadh), Oman (Muscat), Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iran (Tehran), as well as to the Consul General of India in Dubai and the Director of CBSE Regional Office and Centre of Excellence in Dubai.

The board emphasised that further updates will be communicated after reviewing the situation.

Oil markets moved higher on March 2 following developments in the Middle East, with geopolitical risk premiums returning to crude benchmarks.

According to the latest Energy Market Situation Report from CSC Commodities, a division of Marex, front-month Brent crude rose $5.55 per barrel to $78.42 in trading, after earlier reaching $82.37. The front-month spread widened by $1.11 per barrel, with increasing backwardation reflecting tighter prompt conditions.

Strait of Hormuz in focus

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed after several tankers were reportedly struck on March 1. The Strait accounts for around 20 per cent of global oil flows daily, serving as a key route for Middle Eastern exports to Asia.

Some shipping companies have also paused transits through the Bab al-Mandap Strait, which may result in longer sailing routes and firmer freight costs. However, regional producers retain partial bypass options. Saudi Arabia operates the 5 million b/d East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while the UAE’s 1.8 million b/d pipeline to Fujairah provides an alternative export route outside the Gulf.

Sasha Foss, energy analyst at Marex, notes that even if transit conditions normalise, higher insurance costs and logistical adjustments could temporarily affect flows.

The report indicates that while shipping routes remain a focus for markets, attention is also on the resilience of regional energy infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities remain central to global supply, while open-source reports referenced by Marex point to an incident at the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery. Separately, the Juaymah terminal had already suspended LPG exports due to maintenance.

In Iran, Kharg Island continues to serve as the country’s primary export hub. Any prolonged disruption there would have implications for export volumes.

Airspace restrictions across parts of the Middle East, including at Dubai and Bahrain airports, may weigh modestly on regional jet fuel demand, though overall impacts are still being assessed.

Asia reinforces energy buffers

Asian importers are reviewing strategic petroleum reserves as a precautionary measure. India, which imports more than half of its 5 million b/d crude requirement via Hormuz, holds around 10 days of import cover.

Increased Russian crude flows to India are expected, supported by alternative shipping routes. Thailand has suspended oil exports to safeguard domestic supply and holds roughly 60 days of reserves. South Korea and Japan have indicated readiness to draw on strategic stocks if necessary.

China remains relatively well-positioned. Independent refiners process approximately 1.2 million b/d of Iranian crude, and government-controlled reserves have reportedly expanded to around 1.3 billion barrels onshore. Prior stockbuilding has enabled refineries to maintain stable run rates.

Despite the recent price movement, Foss notes that broader supply fundamentals remain comparatively balanced, supported by rising production from Venezuela, Guyana, the US, Canada, Argentina and Brazil. The US is not expected to release crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve unless conditions materially tighten.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ core producers agreed on March 1 to increase output by 206,000 b/d in April, reversing earlier pauses on production increases due to weaker prices.

The additional barrels are expected to provide incremental supply to the market, helping to moderate volatility while producers continue to manage market share and price stability.