US Treasuries surged on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a relief rally across assets as investors wagered that sliding oil prices could keep inflation in check and possibly bring rate cuts back on the table.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to a ceasefire with Iran, less than two hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz or face devastating attacks on its civilian infrastructure.

The deal could pave the way for the strategic waterway that typically carries about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas to be reopened, sending oil prices below $100 per barrel and stocks soaring.

Reaction was also swift in the bond market. US 10-year yields, which rise when Treasury prices fall, were last down 10 basis points at 4.243 per cent. US 30-year yields slid 7.5 bps to 4.846 per cent.

On the front end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 10.9 bps to 3.723 per cent.

Traders are pricing coin-toss odds that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its last meeting of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. A day earlier, they had ascribed a 74.5 per cent probability that the Fed would remain on hold.

Markets had broadly expected two US rate cuts before the war broke out in February.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, pointed out that Brent crude is still well above its pre-war February level, saying the disrupted output and shipping delays may take longer to normalise than the headline move in oil suggests.

“I would not assume markets will simply go back to pricing in the same number of cuts they had before the war. The bigger worry is that some damage may linger even with de-escalation.”

Investor focus will be on March inflation data, due on Friday, to see the impacts of the war on prices.

A stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for March last Friday triggered a selloff in Treasuries. The data had cemented expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady for longer even in the midst of an easing cycle.

In just 41 days, regional tensions have delivered a sharp shock to the global economy.

Since the escalation began in late February, oil prices have surged, supply chains have come under pressure, and governments from Thailand to South Africa have been forced to reassess energy security.

Here in the GCC, the impact has been felt — not just economically. Periodic missile and drone incidents have introduced a layer of uncertainty, testing business confidence and day-to-day operations.

Major regional events have been postponed, including Formula One races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, while sectors such as hospitality and aviation have seen temporary slowdowns.

Air traffic through Dubai International Airport dropped significantly at the height of the disruption, with gradual recovery now underway. Dubai’s property market has also seen a short-term dip in transaction volumes, though experts say underlying fundamentals remain strong.

That resilience is important, especially as countries such as the UAE have had to contend with more than 2,700 projectiles during this period, with over 95 per cent intercepted.

Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran has brought a degree of cautious relief.

But the ceasefire comes with a critical condition: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

This narrow waterway remains the single most important artery for global energy flows. Right now, it is still heavily constrained.

Shipping data suggests traffic through the Strait remains down by more than 90 per cent, with Iranian-controlled passage points — including via Larak Island — adding cost and complexity to global trade.

Iran has indicated it wants to retain a level of control over the Strait as part of any broader agreement. The US, meanwhile, has made clear that full reopening is essential.

Read more: This is Iran’s 10-point proposal to end the war

That tension sits at the heart of the current ceasefire.

It also reflects a familiar negotiating style from Trump. In his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, he describes starting from maximalist positions before stepping back: a strategy that can create leverage, but also unpredictability.

The question now is whether that approach will translate into a lasting outcome.

Mediation efforts, including those linked to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, have helped bring both sides to this point. But the agreement remains fragile, and highly dependent on what happens next.

A meaningful reopening would stabilise markets and restore confidence. A prolonged standoff, however, risks extending disruption.

Everything hinges on the Strait.

• Gareth van Zyl is the group editor of Gulf Business.

Dubai’s Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) has released a new parent guide aimed at helping families better navigate distance learning across Dubai.

The newly issued Parent Guide to Supporting Your Child During Distance Learning offers practical advice to support children’s education at home, while reinforcing wellbeing and strong communication between schools and parents.

According to a WAM report, the guide recognises that each family’s circumstances differ, encouraging flexibility while maintaining consistent learning routines.

Read more-UAE extends distance learning by another two weeks after spring break

Officials stressed that parents are not expected to replace teachers. Schools remain responsible for delivering lessons, tracking progress, and supporting students’ academic development. The guidance underscores that progress, rather than perfection, should be the priority, with calm support and regular routines seen as essential.

It also highlights the importance of open communication with schools to quickly address challenges and avoid confusion.

Five key priorities are outlined to help parents and caregivers provide structured and manageable support at home.

Strengthening home–school partnerships

Fatma Belrehif, CEO of the Quality Assurance and Compliance Agency at KHDA, said the initiative reflects ongoing efforts to support families.

“This guide reflects our commitment to supporting parents during distance learning and strengthening the partnership between schools and families to ensure continuity of education and student wellbeing,” she said.

“The collaboration across our community continues to strengthen our education system, and we are grateful for the dedication of teachers, students, and families.”

Support tailored to different age groups

The guide provides age-appropriate strategies for children from early years through to senior school, acknowledging differing levels of independence.

Younger children, particularly in early primary years, require more hands-on guidance, including simple activities, frequent breaks, and reassurance. Older students are generally more independent, but still benefit from structure, encouragement, and regular check-ins to stay on track. Without such support, they may struggle with focus, fall behind, or feel overwhelmed.

Additional guidance is also included for students requiring extra support, including those with learning needs or emotional challenges. The document also addresses mental health, behaviour, and engagement, offering practical steps for parents.

Parents can access the full guide on the KHDA website

Education officials say the initiative comes as digital learning remains an part of education frameworks, requiring adaptability from both schools and families. The guide encourages parents to create dedicated learning spaces at home, set realistic expectations, and celebrate small achievements to keep children motivated and engaged. It further recommends maintaining balance between screen time and offline activities to support overall development.

Officials noted that continued cooperation will remain critical in ensuring long-term

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast a shift towards unsettled weather conditions across the UAE this week, with rain, dust, and rough sea conditions expected to impact multiple sectors.

In its latest advisory, the NCM said conditions on Wednesday will remain fair to partly cloudy during the day, turning increasingly cloudy by night, with a chance of rainfall over western areas and offshore islands into Thursday morning. Winds are expected to strengthen during the daytime, potentially causing blowing dust, while sea conditions in both the Arabian Gulf and Oman Sea are forecast to be rough to moderate.

From Thursday through Sunday, the authority expects partly cloudy to cloudy skies with recurring chances of rainfall across scattered parts of the country. Wind speeds are forecast to range between 10–25 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 35–40 km/h at times, particularly during periods of convective cloud activity.

The NCM added that Saturday and Sunday may see intensified conditions, including blowing dust and reduced horizontal visibility in some areas, alongside intermittent rainfall. Sea conditions are expected to remain slight to moderate overall, but could turn rough at times in the Arabian Gulf, especially during cloud build-up.

The evolving weather pattern could have implications for aviation, logistics, construction, and offshore operations, particularly due to fluctuating visibility, wind speeds, and sea state. Businesses operating in exposed environments may need to monitor official advisories closely and adjust operations accordingly.

Temperatures are also expected to rise slightly over some areas on Friday, adding to the variability in conditions through the weekend.

Abu Dhabi authorities responded to a fire incident at the Habshan gas-processing facility early on Wednesday morning, according to a statement from the Abu Dhabi Media Office.

Authorities said two Emirati nationals and one Indian expatriate were injured in the incident.

The incident comes shortly after public safety alerts were issued across the UAE earlier in the day, warning of potential missile and drone threats amid heightened regional tensions.

Habshan is a key gas-processing hub in Abu Dhabi’s energy infrastructure, playing a central role in the emirate’s upstream operations.