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Brent crude tops $85 for first time since 2024

Global financial markets have been rattled by the conflict, with both the emerging market equities and currency indexes falling to three-week lows

Reuters
Reuters

03 March, 2026

Brent crude tops $85 for first time since 2024

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Article Summary
The Iran war is driving up oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. This surge threatens emerging markets with inflation, current account deficits, and currency depreciation. Asian economies like Thailand and South Korea are particularly vulnerable. While China faces limited risk, India is highly exposed. Analysts warn of potential capital outflows and de-anchored inflation expectations...

The war in Iran and the resulting surge in energy prices will impact emerging markets well beyond inflation to broader pressures on external balances, currencies and capital flows, analysts warn.

Brokerages, including J.P.Morgan and Bernstein, expect Brent prices to rise above the $100 mark if the conflict continues as Tehran has vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz and said it would fire on any ship trying to pass the crucial shipping route for oil and gas.

Brent crude futures were up $5.63, or 7.2 per cent, at $83.36 a barrel by 12:54 GMT after touching their highest since July 2024 at $85.12.

“A mere 10 per cent rise in oil prices can deteriorate current account balances (for emerging markets) by 40-60 basis points. Prolonged increases would only deepen these deficits,” analysts at ING said in a note, adding that Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines are the most exposed.

The US and Israeli air war against Iran widened, with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Global financial markets have been rattled by the conflict, with both the emerging market equities and currency indexes falling to three-week lows as investors sought the safety of the US dollar.

Higher crude prices pose only a limited risk to China unless the shock is prolonged or escalates sharply, but India, with its thin oil reserves, would be among the most exposed to a sustained supply disruption, analysts said.

Goldman Sachs estimates that a supply driven jump in Brent crude from $70 to $85 would add roughly 0.7 percentage points to inflation across emerging Asia and knock about 0.5 points off economic growth, while widening current account deficits across almost every economy in the region, particularly Thailand, Singapore and South Korea.

Citigroup warned that a prolonged oil shock could “aggressively de-anchor” inflation expectations across emerging markets, with low-reserve countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Turkey facing heightened risks of capital outflows and currency slides.

Separately, J.P. Morgan’s analysts moved EMEA emerging market foreign exchange to “marketweight” on Tuesday and added Poland’s zloty to their list of “underweight” currencies.

Zurich Insurance raises $5bn to finance Beazley bid

Under the deal, Beazley shareholders would receive 1,335 pence per share

Reuters
Reuters

03 March, 2026

Zurich Insurance raises $5bn to finance Beazley bid
Image: Getty Images

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Zurich Insurance raised 3.9 billion Swiss francs through a share sale to partially fund its 8.1 billion pound acquisition of Beazley. The deal, approved by Beazley shareholders, expands Zurich's speciality insurance presence. Zurich shares fell 5.4% following the announcement. The remaining acquisition cost will be covered by existing cash and new debt.

Zurich Insurance has raised 3.9 billion Swiss francs ($5bn) in a share sale to partly finance the acquisition of Britain’s Beazley, it said on Tuesday, sending shares in the group down sharply.

The Swiss insurer has placed 7.1 million new shares with a par value of 0.10 francs per share at 550 francs per new share, it said in a statement, which will increase its share capital from 14.6 million francs to 15.3 million.

The net proceeds will be used to partly finance the takeover of the speciality insurer Beazley. The remainder of the consideration will be funded through existing cash and new debt facilities, it added.

By 0840 GMT, shares in Zurich Insurance were down 5.4 per cent at 543 francs, their biggest daily loss since April and pushing them to the bottom of Switzerland’s blue-chip index.

Zurich said the new shares are expected to be listed and admitted to trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange on or around March 5.

Zurich said on Monday that Beazley shareholders had agreed to the terms of an 8.1 billion pound takeover bid, as the Swiss firm looks to expand its foothold in speciality insurance.

Under the deal, Beazley shareholders would receive 1,335 pence per share, comprising 1,310 pence in cash and a dividend of 25 pence.

CBSE postpones class 10, 12 board exams in the GCC

CBSE further noted that it will reassess the situation on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and make appropriate decisions regarding examinations

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

03 March, 2026

CBSE postpones class 10, 12 board exams in the GCC
Image credit: Getty Images

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Due to the current situation in the Middle East, CBSE has postponed Class X and XII board exams scheduled for March 5th and 6th, 2026, in Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. New dates will be announced later. CBSE will reassess the situation on March 5th for exams from March 7th onwards. Students should check with...

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), an autonomous organisation under the Ministry of Education, Government of India, has announced the postponement of Class X and Class XII board examinations scheduled in several Middle Eastern countries.

In an official circular dated March 3, 2026 (Circular-2, CBSE/CE/SPPS/2026/2), the Board informed principals of CBSE-affiliated schools in Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates about the decision. The announcement follows a critical review of the current situation in parts of the Middle East, a circular posted on the entity’s official X account said.

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According to the circular, the examinations that were scheduled to be held on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and Friday, March 6, 2026, for both Class X and Class XII students have been postponed. The Board stated that the new examination dates will be announced at a later time.

CBSE further noted that it will reassess the situation on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and make appropriate decisions regarding examinations scheduled from March 7, 2026, onwards.

Students have been advised to remain in regular contact with their respective schools for updates and to carefully follow official announcements issued by the Board.

The circular was issued by Dr Sanyam Bhardwaj, controller of examinations, CBSE.

Copies of the circular have been forwarded to Indian ambassadors in the United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi), Saudi Arabia (Riyadh), Oman (Muscat), Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iran (Tehran), as well as to the Consul General of India in Dubai and the Director of CBSE Regional Office and Centre of Excellence in Dubai.

The board emphasised that further updates will be communicated after reviewing the situation.

Report: Oil spikes as Hormuz disruption rattles global markets

Despite the geopolitical spike, Sasha Foss, energy analyst at Marex, notes that global supply fundamentals remain relatively balanced, with increased output from Venezuela, Guyana, the US, Canada, Argentina and Brazil providing a buffer

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

03 March, 2026

Report: Oil spikes as Hormuz disruption rattles global markets
Image credit: Getty Images

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Article Summary
Oil prices rose due to Middle East geopolitical risks, with Brent crude reaching $78.42. Shipping slowdowns in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandap Strait are tightening prompt conditions. Regional producers have bypass options. Asian importers review strategic petroleum reserves as a precaution. OPEC+ agreed to increase output. Overall, supply fundamentals remain balanced.

Oil markets moved higher on March 2 following developments in the Middle East, with geopolitical risk premiums returning to crude benchmarks.

According to the latest Energy Market Situation Report from CSC Commodities, a division of Marex, front-month Brent crude rose $5.55 per barrel to $78.42 in trading, after earlier reaching $82.37. The front-month spread widened by $1.11 per barrel, with increasing backwardation reflecting tighter prompt conditions.

Strait of Hormuz in focus

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed after several tankers were reportedly struck on March 1. The Strait accounts for around 20 per cent of global oil flows daily, serving as a key route for Middle Eastern exports to Asia.

Some shipping companies have also paused transits through the Bab al-Mandap Strait, which may result in longer sailing routes and firmer freight costs. However, regional producers retain partial bypass options. Saudi Arabia operates the 5 million b/d East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while the UAE’s 1.8 million b/d pipeline to Fujairah provides an alternative export route outside the Gulf.

Sasha Foss, energy analyst at Marex, notes that even if transit conditions normalise, higher insurance costs and logistical adjustments could temporarily affect flows.

The report indicates that while shipping routes remain a focus for markets, attention is also on the resilience of regional energy infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities remain central to global supply, while open-source reports referenced by Marex point to an incident at the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery. Separately, the Juaymah terminal had already suspended LPG exports due to maintenance.

In Iran, Kharg Island continues to serve as the country’s primary export hub. Any prolonged disruption there would have implications for export volumes.

Airspace restrictions across parts of the Middle East, including at Dubai and Bahrain airports, may weigh modestly on regional jet fuel demand, though overall impacts are still being assessed.

Asia reinforces energy buffers

Asian importers are reviewing strategic petroleum reserves as a precautionary measure. India, which imports more than half of its 5 million b/d crude requirement via Hormuz, holds around 10 days of import cover.

Increased Russian crude flows to India are expected, supported by alternative shipping routes. Thailand has suspended oil exports to safeguard domestic supply and holds roughly 60 days of reserves. South Korea and Japan have indicated readiness to draw on strategic stocks if necessary.

China remains relatively well-positioned. Independent refiners process approximately 1.2 million b/d of Iranian crude, and government-controlled reserves have reportedly expanded to around 1.3 billion barrels onshore. Prior stockbuilding has enabled refineries to maintain stable run rates.

Despite the recent price movement, Foss notes that broader supply fundamentals remain comparatively balanced, supported by rising production from Venezuela, Guyana, the US, Canada, Argentina and Brazil. The US is not expected to release crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve unless conditions materially tighten.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ core producers agreed on March 1 to increase output by 206,000 b/d in April, reversing earlier pauses on production increases due to weaker prices.

The additional barrels are expected to provide incremental supply to the market, helping to moderate volatility while producers continue to manage market share and price stability.

China yuan snaps losses on stronger central bank fix

Prior to its two-day slide, the yuan had been strengthening steadily for months against a broadly weaker greenback

Reuters
Reuters

03 March, 2026

China yuan snaps losses on stronger central bank fix

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The Chinese yuan rebounded against the dollar after the central bank (PBOC) significantly raised its official guidance, the largest increase in over six months. This move, interpreted as a calming measure amid Middle East conflict volatility, followed recent yuan depreciation. Analysts believe the PBOC remains cautious about rapid yuan appreciation, focusing on balancing external and domestic economic factors.

China’s yuan rebounded versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, snapping two days of steep declines, after the central bank lifted its official guidance by the most in more than six months.

Investors interpreted the move as an attempt to calm the market amid the volatility induced by the war in the Middle East.

Prior to market open, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set its midpoint rate at 6.9088 a dollar, 148 pips or 0.21 per cent firmer than its previous setting.

That marked the biggest one-day strengthening of the yuan fix in percentage terms since August 25.

The central bank allows spot yuan to trade within a 2 per cent band either side of the midpoint each day.

Both onshore and offshore yuan bounced following the guidance. Onshore yuan last fetched 6.8845 a dollar as of 0330 GMT, 0.3 per cent firmer than the previous late night close. Its offshore counterpart gained nearly 0.3 per cent to 6.8838.

The midpoint – which was set at a fresh 34-month high on Tuesday – is acting as a policy tool guiding market expectations, said chief financial market analyst Marco Sun at MUFG (China).

“The yuan has already depreciated following the recent adjustment of the FX forward reserve requirement to zero, along with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, so the fixing will remain steady to anchor market expectations,” Sun said.

Prior to its two-day slide, the yuan had been strengthening steadily for months against a broadly weaker greenback, reaching the highest since April 2023 at 6.831 per dollar on Wednesday of last week.

That spurred the central bank to scrap risk reserve requirements for some forward currency contracts, a move that would encourage dollar buying as exporters feel the pinch from a stronger currency.

While markedly stronger, the central bank’s midpoint on Tuesday was 272 pips weaker than a Reuters’ estimate of 6.8816.

“In our view, the PBOC remains cautious of overly rapid yuan appreciation,” Citi analysts said in a note.

“We maintain our view that some yuan appreciation supports external rebalancing but works against domestic rebalancing.”

Even amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, domestic investor attention is shifting to the annual meeting of China’s parliament from Thursday, where major economic targets and the year’s policy agenda will be mapped out.

“Overall, we do not expect the recent gains in yuan versus dollar to alter the path of monetary policy,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.

“We continue to expect one 10-basis-point policy rate cut and a 50bp reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q2 2026, and we do not expect any further cuts to either the policy rate or the RRR thereafter.”

Paramount debt to hit $79bn after Warner Bros deal, no plan to sell cable assets

The contest for Warner Bros studio and streaming assets heated up over months, with Paramount and Netflix trading rival takeover bid

Reuters
Reuters

03 March, 2026

Paramount debt to hit $79bn after Warner Bros deal, no plan to sell cable assets
Image: Getty Images/ For illustrative purposes

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Paramount will acquire Warner Bros Discovery, creating a streaming giant with combined services and significant cost savings (over $6 billion) through technology consolidation. The deal, valued at $110 billion, consolidates linear networks and extensive IP libraries, including franchises like "Game of Thrones" and "Mission Impossible". The combined entity will have $79 billion in net debt. The deal is expected to...

The Paramount Skydance – Warner Bros Discovery merger will create a combined entity that would have a net debt of about $79bn, Paramount said on Monday, ruling out any plan to divest or spin off the cable assets.

The companies will fold their streaming services, including Paramount+ and HBO Max, into a single platform, Paramount CEO David Ellison said on a call with analysts.

Together, the companies already serve more than 200 million direct-to-consumer subscribers in more than 100 regions, Ellison said, giving them the scale and firepower to better compete in a market dominated by Netflix.

Paramount signed the $110bn, or $31 per share, deal for Warner Bros Discovery early on Friday, after Netflix declined to raise its offer.

The acquisition is expected to save more than $6bn in costs, with a big share coming from non-labour sources by combining streaming technology stacks and cloud providers, Paramount strategy chief Andy Gordon said.

The savings target is much higher than Netflix’s promised synergy goal of as much as $3bn and had sparked fears of layoffs and shrinking of TV and film production by the combined Warner Paramount.

The merger will also unite Paramount’s CBS, MTV, Comedy Central and BET with Warner’s networks, including CNN, TNT and Food Network.

By combining our linear businesses, we expect to boost cash flow, drive efficiencies and help manage market pressures, Ellison said.

The merged entity will have one of the industry’s deepest libraries of commercially proven intellectual property, uniting franchises such as Game of Thrones, Mission Impossible, Harry Potter, Top Gun, the DC Universe and SpongeBob SquarePants.

HBO is a crown jewel in this business and will continue to have the resources and independence to do what it does best, Ellison said.

The Paramount deal is backed by $54bn in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citigroup and Apollo.

This includes $39bn of new debt and $15bn to refinance Warner Bros existing bridge facility, Gordon said.

Warner Bros Discovery had a net debt of $29bn, while Paramount had $10.36bn at the end of last year.

Paramount shares were down about 1.6 per cent.

The long-drawn bidding contest for Warner Bros

The contest for Warner Bros studio and streaming assets heated up over months, with Paramount and Netflix trading rival takeover bids.

Netflix struck first, signing a deal early in December to buy those assets, excluding cable networks, for $27.75 per share, or $82.7bn.

After Warner’s board deemed the Paramount proposal superior, Netflix stepped back from the high-stakes battle for assets, including DC Comics, HBO and HBO Max.

The Paramount Warner Bros deal would also remove doubts surrounding the value and risk of the cable networks’ spinoff that Warner shareholders would have retained under the Netflix proposal, reducing one of the key variables that had added to doubts around Netflix’s bid.

The combined entity is expected to produce at least 30 theatrical films a year, while maintaining both Warner Bros and Paramount studios.

Paramount paid the $2.8bn termination fee that Warner owed Netflix on Friday. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

The acquisition is likely to easily win European Union antitrust approval, with any required divestments likely to be minor, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources.

Paramount, led by David Ellison, son of billionaire Larry Ellison, has deep ties to the Donald Trump administration, a factor some analysts said could help it secure more favourable regulatory treatment.

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