As consulting adapts to a world shaped by AI, faster decision-making and rising expectations from boards, its role is changing. Clients are no longer looking for long reports, but for clear judgment and results they can act on. Ramki Jayaraman, managing partner at Synarchy Consulting, has spent the past few years working closely with leadership teams across the Middle East and Africa on strategy, operating models and data-led transformation.

Here, he shares his perspective on how the consulting industry is evolving, where organisations are still struggling with AI and data readiness, and what leaders should focus on as they plan for 2026.

What major trends marked the consulting industry across 2025, and which of those do you expect to accelerate or fade in 2026?

Across 2025, the most visible shift in consulting was the move from expert-only insight to insight at scale. Clients no longer expect consulting firms to be the sole source of analysis. Data, benchmarks, and even first-pass thinking are now widely accessible. What clients increasingly demand instead is evidence-led recommendations, faster synthesis, and greater precision in how insights are translated into decisions.

In parallel, GenAI has moved from experimentation to becoming a practical productivity layer. Leading firms are using it to accelerate research, structure problem statements, create first drafts of hypotheses, and stress-test scenarios. The firms pulling ahead are not those replacing judgment with automation, but those using AI to compress cycle times while strengthening quality control through governance, review discipline, and reusable knowledge assets.

In 2026, I expect three trends to accelerate meaningfully. First, AI-enabled delivery models will mature. We will see smaller, sharper teams delivering disproportionate impact, supported by reusable accelerators, agentic workflows, and domain-specific data products. Second, outcome-based engagements will expand. Clients are increasingly paying for measurable results, revenue uplift, cost-to-serve reduction, and cycle-time improvement, rather than the volume of slides produced. Third, industry-specialised transformation will continue to outpace generic strategy work, particularly in sectors such as government services, financial services, energy, logistics, and industrials.

What will fade is the traditional report-driven culture, where months are spent perfecting a document as the primary output. Boards and CEOs still value clarity and rigour, but they want decisions and execution momentum in weeks, not quarters. Consulting will remain anchored in structured problem-solving, but the unit of value is shifting decisively from the report to the result, with AI compressing the path from insight to implementation.

As AI, automation and data analytics become core to operations, what are the biggest capability or governance gaps you still see in regional organisations — and how should leaders close them?

The most common gaps I see in the region are not about ambition; they are about readiness and operating discipline. The first gap is data readiness. Many organisations still struggle with fragmented data ownership, inconsistent definitions, weak lineage, and limited interoperability across business units. There is a strong appetite for advanced analytics, but many enterprises are still operating on “spreadsheet truth” and duplicated systems.

The second gap is business-led AI. Too many initiatives are framed as technology experiments rather than business transformations. Without clear outcomes, accountable owners, and process redesign, these initiatives struggle to generate sustained value.

A third and very persistent gap is the “POC trap” — strong pilots that never scale. This typically happens because organisations have not designed an AI-ready product and operating model. Model monitoring, change management, process controls, cybersecurity, and long-term talent ownership are often afterthoughts rather than foundational elements.

Finally, governance is frequently miscalibrated. In some cases, it is too light, exposing organisations to risk. In others, it is so heavy that innovation stalls. What is needed is a pragmatic middle ground: clear policies, faster decision rights, and measurable performance guardrails.

Leaders can close these gaps with a structured approach. Start with a comprehensive AI diagnostic that spans business priorities, data maturity, target architecture, risk and compliance requirements, and organisational readiness. Translate this into a small number of outcome-defined use cases with named owners, ROI logic, and scale pathways. Build a fit-for-purpose governance model, covering model risk management, data stewardship, and ethical guidelines — and embed it into day-to-day operations rather than isolating it within a separate committee. Most importantly, invest in capability building: product owners, data engineers, process experts, and change leaders who can take AI from concept to enterprise value.

Middle East companies are prioritising operational resilience and scalability. What practical steps should boards and C-suite teams be taking now to make those priorities real, not just aspirational?

Operational resilience and scalability become real when leadership treats them as an operating system, not a slogan. Boards and C-suites should begin by clearly defining their non-negotiables, ervice continuity, regulatory compliance, cybersecurity posture, and cash-flow resilience under stress scenarios.

From there, the first practical step is to map critical value streams end-to-end, from procurement to delivery to after-sales, and identify single points of failure, manual bottlenecks, supplier concentration risks, and key-person dependencies. This exercise often reveals risks that dashboards alone do not surface.

Second, resilience requires decision-ready management information. Many organisations have dashboards, but very few have decision systems. Leaders should define a small set of operational KPIs that link directly to risk triggers and escalation playbooks, such as inventory coverage, supplier lead-time variance, plant uptime, order-cycle time, incident response metrics, and working-capital movement. This needs to be paired with a governance cadence that forces action: weekly operational reviews and quarterly scenario refreshes, rather than annual strategy off-sites.

Third, scalability depends on standardisation combined with modularity. Core processes should be standardised where control matters, finance, procurement, and data definitions, while modular components such as shared services, cloud platforms, reusable automation, and repeatable go-to-market motions enable scale across geographies or business lines.

In the GCC context, resilience also has a strong local dimension. As the region accelerates diversification beyond hydrocarbons, companies must strengthen local supply ecosystems, industrial partnerships, and capabilities that support “make in UAE” and “make in KSA” competitiveness. The organisations that succeed will be those that build durable operations today while positioning themselves for export-led growth tomorrow.

Which emerging technologies or strategic shifts should regional businesses prioritise to remain competitive and which are overhyped?

Regional businesses should prioritise technologies that move core business outcomes — revenue growth, customer experience, operating efficiency, and risk reduction. The highest-return opportunity right now lies in industry-specific AI use cases embedded directly into core operations.

For many organisations, the best starting point is revenue-focused AI: sales augmentation, pricing and promotion optimisation, customer segmentation, churn reduction, demand forecasting, and faster proposal or tender responses. Once value is proven, organisations can expand into efficiency-focused use cases across finance, procurement, HR, customer operations, and maintenance.

The second priority is cloud-native foundations, not as an IT upgrade, but as a business agility enabler. Cloud-native architectures, API-led integration, and modern data platforms make it feasible to scale analytics responsibly, reduce time-to-market, and support new digital products. Third, process automation with controls, including workflow, selective RPA, and AI-enabled decisioning, can unlock meaningful cycle-time reduction and compliance improvement when paired with process redesign and accountability.

What is overhyped is the belief that GenAI alone constitutes transformation. Many organisations are chasing generic copilots and chat interfaces without fixing data quality, workflow design, or adoption. The result is fragmented pilots and unclear ROI. Another overhyped pattern is technology-first roadmaps, where tools are deployed before outcomes, operating model changes, and governance are defined.

The organisations that win in 2026 will treat AI like a product portfolio: a small number of high-impact use cases, strong data and governance foundations, and an execution engine that takes initiatives beyond POC into scaled value. Anything that cannot explain its path to enterprise adoption should be treated with healthy scepticism.

How are regional economic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and national diversification agendas in the UAE and Saudi Arabia reshaping advisory demand?

The UAE and Saudi diversification agendas are reshaping advisory demand in very concrete ways. They are accelerating investment cycles, raising the bar on competitiveness, and expanding the definition of transformation itself. Demand is shifting from pure efficiency programmes to strategic reinvention — including new growth platforms, industrial development, and capability building aligned with national priorities such as advanced manufacturing, logistics, digital government, and future-ready workforce strategies.

Geopolitical uncertainty and global supply-chain volatility are also sharpening the focus on resilience. Boards are increasingly seeking guidance on multi-sourcing strategies, localisation, critical-infrastructure readiness, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance. Scenario-based planning that links macro signals to business decisions is becoming a core expectation rather than a specialist exercise.

Policy shifts are also accelerating the professionalisation of organisations. We see sustained demand for feasibility studies, business model design, and strategy-to-execution programmes, particularly where organisations are entering new sectors, building regional champions, or scaling cross-border. AI strategy and operating model design are also rising rapidly on board agendas, especially as regulators and stakeholders place greater emphasis on data governance, model risk, and responsible AI.

For advisory firms, the implication is clear: clients want partners who can integrate strategy, operating model, technology architecture, and governance into one cohesive transformation journey. In 2026 and beyond, demand will concentrate at the intersection of diversification, productivity, and digital capability — with faster delivery cycles and clearer accountability.

Family offices and Emirati families are playing a growing role in regional capital flows. How do their priorities differ from those of institutional investors, and how should advisers adapt?

Family offices and Emirati family investors bring a distinct lens to capital deployment. Financial returns matter, but so do legacy, continuity, reputation, and strategic relevance to the family’s broader business ecosystem. Compared to institutional investors, who operate under defined mandates, liquidity expectations, and structured risk frameworks, family offices often deploy patient capital.

Historically, many family investors have preferred asset-heavy and control-oriented investments such as real estate, industrial ventures, and joint ventures. What is changing is a more active engagement with growth-stage opportunities, including Series A and Series B investments, as families seek diversification and innovation adjacency to existing sectors.

Advisers need to adapt in three ways. First, focus on alignment and narrative. Family investors respond strongly to a clear story of strategic fit, risk containment, and long-term value creation. Second, strengthen governance and transparency. Investment theses must be backed by robust diligence, operating KPIs, and clear decision rights. Third, design structured deployment pathways, staged investments, milestone-linked funding, co-investment models, and partnership structures that respect family dynamics and confidentiality.

Ultimately, the most effective advisers in this segment combine strategic judgment with high-trust engagement. The best deal is not necessarily the one with the highest IRR, but the one that fits the family’s time horizon, values, and risk appetite while building sustainable capability.

How are investors, stakeholders and ecosystem partners reframing risk assessment today and what signals do they watch most closely?

Risk assessment in the region has become more dynamic and execution-focused. The question is no longer “Is this a good idea?” but “Can this organisation deliver, under real-world constraints, and how quickly will value materialise?”

The first signal investors examine is strategic alignment: whether the programme aligns with government agendas, regulatory direction, and sector tailwinds. In the Middle East, policy narratives significantly influence confidence and partnership momentum. The second signal is financial resilience: cash-flow durability, funding capacity, working-capital impact, and shock absorption under volatile conditions.

Execution readiness is the third major signal. Stakeholders look for credible sponsorship, clear decision rights, a capable PMO, and a proven ability to implement change. Fourth is technology and data feasibility: data foundations, cybersecurity integration, and scalable architecture. With AI, there is heightened scrutiny on governance — including model risk management and ethical considerations.

Finally, time-to-value has become critical. Programmes that deliver early, measurable wins without compromising control are perceived as lower risk. The strongest transformation proposals, therefore, combine ambition with sequencing: clear milestones, quantified benefits, risk controls, and transparent reporting that supports board-level decisions.

What differentiates Synarchy’s approach to digital and AI-enabled transformation in MEA?

Synarchy’s approach is grounded in a simple belief: AI transformation succeeds when it starts with business reality, not technology excitement. We begin with a robust AI readiness assessment covering business priorities, data maturity, technology landscape, governance requirements, and people readiness. In MEA, where regulatory expectations, legacy systems, and operating models vary widely, context matters deeply.

Our methodology spans four dimensions: business value, data and information architecture, technology ecosystem, and people and culture. From this, we design pragmatic roadmaps that balance near-term wins with long-term capability building. Importantly, we treat AI as an operating model shift, addressing decision rights, processes, controls, and adoption, not just models.

We are outcomes-oriented. We prioritise use cases tied to measurable value and design clear scale pathways beyond pilots. Our partnership model is long-term: advisory design, onboarding of AI solutions and governance, and implementation oversight to ensure adoption, performance monitoring, and value realisation. In short, we partner to deliver outcomes, not frameworks.

Can you share Synarchy’s near-term plans for expansion and capability buildout for 2026?

Our 2026 expansion is shaped by a consistent message from leadership teams: AI alone does not create advantage — organisations must be redesigned to move faster, decide better, and scale with confidence.

Geographically, we are expanding our presence in Abu Dhabi and progressing our Africa agenda, aligned with rising demand in government and key industries. Capability-wise, we are strengthening our offering in organisational and operating model design, helping clients clarify decision rights, streamline governance, redesign functions, and establish execution rhythms that match AI-compressed cycle times.

We are also deepening our full-stack AI advisory, but with sharper integration into the operating model change. This means linking AI initiatives directly to process redesign, talent deployment, and measurable performance outcomes. A third pillar of our buildout is long-term capability development — leadership upskilling, internal talent pipelines, and sustainable operating models.

Our focus is clear: combining strategy with execution, and AI transformation with organisational agility — so clients are not just transformed once, but are built to adapt continuously.

Dubai’s ambition to become one of the world’s leading cashless cities is no longer a future-state vision. With more than 80 per cent of payments already digital and a government strategy expected to add Dhs100bn to the digital economy, the shift is now forcing businesses to rethink how money moves inside their organisations.

For Armin Moradi, CEO and founder of Qashio, the transition is not just about payment methods, but about business velocity, visibility and control.

“Dubai’s Cashless Strategy will be a positive shift in how businesses fundamentally manage everyday finances,” Moradi said. “Velocity will be key moving forward.”

Historically, reliance on cash has created friction across finance operations. “Heavy dependence on cash has led to delayed book closures, slower payments, and overall slower decision-making and growth,” he said. Beyond inefficiency, there is also financial leakage. “There’s the very real financial impact of petty cash leakages and administrative inefficiencies that come with manual processes.”

Digitisation, in contrast, changes the operating model. “By digitising spend, businesses gain instant visibility into their finances, more accurate data, and the ability to make decisions faster and with greater confidence,” Moradi said. “This level of transparency allows companies to scale more efficiently, while significantly reducing the risk of fraud, theft, and petty cash leakages that are inherent in cash-based systems.”

The challenge of replacing petty cash

While the direction of travel is clear, replacing petty cash and manual expense claims is not friction-free. Moradi said one of the biggest challenges is uneven adoption across the economy.

“Some older, more traditional businesses still don’t fully accept digital payments,” he said. “While this is changing, primarily driven by governance requirements and consumer behaviour, there are still pockets of the economy catching up.”

That unevenness creates operational risk. “As adoption in certain pockets of the economy is slower than others, two visible issues surface,” Moradi said. “First, it adds unnecessary complexity instead of simplifying expense management if adoption would be unified. Second, it introduces inconsistent business practices, governance challenges and security concerns.”

Manual handling of financial data is a growing liability. “Sensitive financial data is often stored manually and physically or on personal devices posing a data risk either by loss of the physical documentation or off offshore data centres where mobile apps are stored,” he said.

A fully digital environment fundamentally reshapes the role of finance teams. Instead of retrospective control, oversight becomes real time.

“Cashless businesses benefit from instant visibility and control,” Moradi said. “Because all transactions are digitised and connected to a centralised system, finance teams know in real time how much money has been spent and where.”

Control also becomes preventative rather than corrective. “They can also control cash outflows instantly using digital spend management tools: setting limits, approving vendors, and restricting where and how money can be spent,” he said. “This helps mitigate fraud, control spending, and enforce budgets without slowing the business down.”

For employees, clarity improves compliance. “There’s no ambiguity around what is and isn’t allowed,” Moradi said. “Only approved budgets and vendors can be paid, and any out-of-policy purchases are instantly rejected.”

“This shifts compliance from a manual, after-the-fact process to something that’s built into how spending happens in the first place,” he added.

Why SMEs stand to gain the most

Moradi believes small and medium-sized enterprises have the most to gain from the cashless transition, precisely because their margin for error is smaller.

“SMEs sit in a tricky middle ground,” he said. “They’ve found product–market fit, but they haven’t yet scaled to the level of large enterprises.”

At this stage, discipline matters. “Unlike large enterprises, SMEs don’t have the luxury of doing an ‘okay’ job with expense tracking,” Moradi said. “One miscalculation, delayed reconciliation, or late payment can be the difference between a longer runway and missed payroll.”

Digital payments change how SMEs are perceived by lenders and investors. “Digital payment adoption centralises all spending in one system, keeping financial records clean, accurate, and up to date,” he said. “This level of visibility and discipline signals maturity to investors and lenders, strengthens an SME’s credibility, and makes it far easier to assess risk.”

Access to capital follows. “As a result, access to financing and credit improves significantly, especially when digital payment platforms offer credit or financing natively, removing friction from the process entirely,” Moradi said.

In a cashless economy, the tools that replace cash matter as much as the payments themselves. Moradi sees digital cards as a major upgrade on traditional corporate cards.

“Digital cards allow businesses to create temporary or purpose-specific cards for individual vendors or transactions, significantly reducing the risk of fraud, overcharging, or misuse,” he said.

Control is granular. “When combined with preset balances and spending rules, finance teams can control exactly where a card can be used, how much can be spent, and over what period of time,” Moradi said. “Making it far easier to enforce strict budgets and prevent overspending.”

AI completes the loop. “AI-powered reconciliation and real-time reporting then close the loop,” he said. “Transactions are matched automatically, spend is visible instantly, and finance teams can close their books accurately and on time, without manual effort.”

“Together, these tools shift finance from reactive clean-up to proactive control,” Moradi added, “which is essential in a fully cashless economy.”

One concern businesses often raise is whether digital spending tools give employees too much freedom. Moradi argues the opposite: ambiguity, not autonomy, drives overspending.

“A lot of overspending doesn’t come from bad intent, but from human error and grey areas in policy,” he said.

He offered a simple example. “A company has a policy of Dhs100 per meal. If a meal comes to Dhs101, it’s likely a manager will approve it during expense review. Multiply that flexibility across teams and months, and budgets start to slip without anyone noticing.”

Unclear rules also slow execution. “New employees are often unclear about what they can and can’t expense,” Moradi said. “That confusion slows down decision-making and delays critical purchases, which hurts velocity.”

Digital tools remove that friction. “Clear rules define what’s in and out of policy before a transaction happens,” he said. “Employees are empowered to spend with confidence… while finance teams maintain strict control over budgets and governance.”

As transaction volumes move fully digital, Moradi believes businesses must focus on one critical area: outflow control.

“Every business has two main cash flows: inflow and outflow,” he said. “While both matter, actively managing outflow is arguably more critical.”

“Uncontrolled outflow leads to shorter runways, tighter budgets, and a poor spend culture,” Moradi said. The solution lies in structured spend management. “Businesses should prioritise strong spend management, whether by optimising internal workflows or adopting digital tools built for fraud prevention, payment security, and regulatory compliance.”

The benefits extend beyond daily operations. “This also simplifies downstream requirements like VAT filing and audits,” he said. “In a fully digital economy, controlling cash outflow is no longer just a finance function, but a shared collective responsibility and essential business function.”

Who will thrive—and who will fall behind

Looking ahead, Moradi sees a widening gap between businesses that adapt early and those that delay.

“Over the next three to five years, businesses that struggle to adapt to Dubai’s cashless economy will lack real-time visibility into spending, rely on manual processes, and face slower decision-making as a result,” he said.

The consequences are tangible. “This often leads to delayed tax filings, higher compliance risk, and potential penalties,” Moradi said.

In contrast, leaders will look very different. “Businesses that thrive will have digital spend management tools in place that centralise payments, provide instant visibility, and enforce controls by default,” he said.

“In a cashless economy, the ability to move quickly, stay compliant, and maintain control over spending will be the key differentiator between companies that scale and those that fall behind.”

Read: Murat Cagri Suzer on Network International’s blueprint for an AI-driven cashless society

The Middle East’s retail sector ended 2025 on a high, but the headline growth figures only tell part of the story. During peak periods such as Cyber Week, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Ramadan shopping season, consumer demand across the region surged. What matters more, however, is how that growth was achieved.

This was not a boom driven by deeper discounts or short-term promotions. Instead, it points to a more structural shift underway, one that will redefine how commerce works in 2026 and beyond. At the centre of that shift is the rise of agentic AI.

Based on aggregated commerce data and consumer research published by Salesforce, analysing activity from more than 1.5 billion shoppers and over 1.5 trillion page views globally during peak periods, clear changes are emerging in how people discover, decide, and engage, not just what they buy. Nowhere is that shift more visible than in the Middle East.

Cyber Week 2025 proved pivotal for the region. Across Middle Eastern markets, both online sales and orders grew by 23 per cent, with traffic up 19 per cent. Crucially, this growth was achieved without heavier discounting. Average discounts edged down to 27 per cent, from 28 per cent in 2024, a strong indicator of healthier, more confident demand.

Black Friday followed a similar pattern. Online sales rose 21 per cent, orders increased 20 per cent, and traffic grew 17 per cent, while average discounts narrowed slightly to 28 per cent, down from 29 per cent the year before. Even globally, where growth was more moderate, the Middle East continued to outperform, with Cyber Monday delivering 8 per cent online growth and a 19 per cent increase in traffic.

Beyond the traditional year-end shopping season, Ramadan once again underscored the region’s distinct retail dynamics. In March 2025, online sales increased by 19 per cent year-over-year, with traffic up 15 per cent. Retailers relied more heavily on promotions during this period, with average discounts rising to 21 per cent from 14 per cent the previous year, reflecting increased competition and heightened consumer awareness around seasonal value.

Taken together, these figures indicate a digitally mature retail market that is expanding rapidly, yet also becoming increasingly complex. Growth alone does not explain what comes next.

The way consumers in the Middle East discover, evaluate, and purchase products is changing at speed. A growing share of shoppers now begin product searches using AI-powered assistants such as ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Meta AI, or Grok. Adoption is even higher among Gen Z consumers. Increasingly, AI tools are being used not only for inspiration but for comparison, decision-making, and purchase support.

This shift is not happening in isolation. As AI-powered discovery tools proliferate, consumers are gravitating toward experiences that deliver relevance rather than volume. These systems understand context, learn preferences and intent, and translate that intelligence into real-time, personalised recommendations.

Trust in these tools is accelerating. Many consumers who already rely on AI chat services for product recommendations now expect to use them when purchasing gifts or planning seasonal spending. A meaningful share are even open to letting an AI agent complete purchases on their behalf.

Importantly, this behaviour is not limited to online shopping. When visiting physical stores, a growing proportion of consumers now use AI assistants on their phones to compare prices, check reviews, or validate choices. For today’s shoppers, the journey no longer starts in one channel and ends in another. They expect fluid, conversational, always-on engagement, and increasingly, they expect brands to respond on their terms.

Retailers across the Middle East began responding decisively to this shift throughout 2025. AI agents are increasingly being deployed both in customer-facing experiences and across back-end operations.

On the front end, these agents enable more personalised and conversational shopping journeys. Drawing on browsing behaviour, purchase history, and real-time signals, they can recommend products, resolve complex questions, and guide customers seamlessly from discovery through to checkout.

Behind the scenes, agentic AI is already reshaping operations. Retailers are using autonomous systems to model inventory more precisely, dynamically adjust pricing, strengthen supply chain resilience, detect fraud in real time, and automate clearance strategies with minimal human intervention. The payoff is faster decision-making, greater efficiency, and the ability to scale without compromising experience.

Why businesses will learn to trust in 2026

If 2025 was the year enterprise AI learned to act, 2026 will be the year businesses learn to trust.

The evolution from insight-generating tools to autonomous, multi-step systems has not been without friction. Many organisations continue to wrestle with governance, data quality, security, and the balance between human oversight and machine autonomy.

Yet the momentum is undeniable. AI adoption has accelerated sharply over the past four years. The constraint is no longer technical feasibility, but organisational confidence and clarity around guardrails.

In 2026, competitive advantage will belong to organisations that can responsibly orchestrate AI agents, ground them in trusted data, and clearly define where human judgment adds value.

This shift carries particular significance for the Middle East. The region’s young, digitally native population embraces new technology quickly, while governments continue to invest heavily in AI, digital infrastructure, and innovation-led growth.

Agentic commerce gives retailers a way to meet rising expectations amid disruption. It enables personalisation at scale, operational agility, and real-time responsiveness, critical in a region where peak periods such as Ramadan or Cyber Week can determine annual performance.

Even as prices increased, shoppers demonstrated a clear willingness to spend when experiences felt relevant, personalised, and effortless. In the near future, agentic commerce will no longer be a differentiator. It will simply underpin how modern retail in the Middle East works.

The writer is the SVP/GM Middle East, Salesforce.

The sudden collapse in gold and silver prices that erased trillions of dollars in market value was not driven by a single headline or political announcement, but by a tightly wound mix of leverage, margin pressure and market structure failures that finally snapped in late January.

After months of relentless gains, precious metals reversed sharply between January 27 and February 2, triggering one of the steepest sell-offs in decades. Silver fell from highs of around $121 an ounce, while gold retreated from peaks near $5,597, dragging futures, ETFs and spot prices sharply lower.

While early media narratives focused on speculation surrounding US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, market participants point to more technical and structural causes behind the move.

According to Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, the sell-off was primarily driven by two decisive triggers: a rapid tightening of margin requirements in the US futures market and an emergency trading halt in China.

“The main triggers for the sell-off in metals were: one, an increase in margins, and two, a trading halt in China,” Valecha said.

Margin pressure created a forced unwind

In mid-January, the CME Group shifted from a fixed-dollar margin system to a percentage-based margin framework. The change significantly increased the amount of collateral required as metal prices rose, effectively capping leverage just as prices were hitting record highs.

“This increase in collateral requirements relative to the contract value effectively caps leverage as prices rise,” Valecha explained. “The capital required to maintain a single COMEX contract rose in tandem, creating an environment in which even minor price declines would trigger massive margin calls.”

Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, said the rally had become increasingly vulnerable as positioning grew crowded across financial instruments. “The rally had become over-owned through bullion ETFs, leveraged futures and call-option structures that mechanically amplified upside,” she said. She added that news around Kevin Warsh potentially being nominated as Federal Reserve chair strengthened the dollar and shifted policy expectations, “triggering forced selling as liquidity thinned.”

By January 27, CME raised maintenance margins again to ensure “adequate collateral coverage” amid extreme volatility. In total, five margin hikes were implemented within ten days, creating what Valecha described as a “coiled spring” of latent selling pressure.

As prices began to dip, leveraged investors were forced to either inject fresh capital or liquidate positions, accelerating the sell-off across COMEX futures and exchange-traded funds.

China trading halt added fuel to the fire

The second major shock came from China. On January 30, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange imposed a full-day emergency trading halt on the SDIC Silver Futures Fund, mainland China’s only publicly traded fund dedicated to silver futures.

“This suspension created a liquidity trap for Chinese institutional and retail traders,” Valecha said. “They were unable to liquidate their domestic holdings and were forced to dump SLV and COMEX futures to raise cash or hedge their exposure.”

The halt effectively trapped capital onshore, forcing offshore selling to meet margin calls, amplifying pressure on already fragile futures markets.

Akoner added that China remains the key near-term variable for precious metals. “Physical demand remains firm, with Shanghai prices at a premium and strong jewellery and bar buying ahead of Lunar New Year,” she said, adding that near-term price action is likely to remain volatile “until forced selling clears.”

Was this manipulation or spoofing?

The speed and scale of the decline reignited speculation about market manipulation, spoofing and coordinated selling, especially given the long history of regulatory action in precious metals markets.

Gold and silver trade in highly financialised, derivative-heavy ecosystems, particularly on COMEX and through the London over-the-counter market linked to London Bullion Market Association. Daily paper trading volumes routinely exceed physical supply multiples over.

“In such an environment, a large sell programme from a macro fund, CTA or bank desk can trigger stop-loss clusters, margin calls and systematic trend-following models flipping short,” Valecha said. “This creates a self-reinforcing liquidation spiral.”

US regulators have previously fined traders at major banks for spoofing — the practice of placing large fake orders to influence prices before cancelling them — in precious metals futures. However, there is no confirmed evidence of coordinated wrongdoing linked to this specific crash.

“Spoofing can accelerate a move, not create the macro trend,” Valecha noted. “What we usually see is a more mundane mix of crowded trades, leverage and automated selling feeding on itself.”

Impact on investors and the Gulf region

The sharp correction reflects a leverage-driven risk reset, rather than a breakdown in precious-metal fundamentals, according to analysts cited by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Akoner said underlying demand dynamics remain supportive, particularly from central banks. “Central banks continue to anchor demand, with roughly 800 tonnes of buying expected in 2026,” she said, noting that purchases are increasingly targeted in tonnes rather than value, making demand more price-inelastic. She added that combined investor and central-bank demand averaged around 750 tonnes per quarter in 2025, well above the roughly 380 tonnes historically required to support higher prices.

Silver bore the brunt of the sell-off due to concentrated futures positioning, but gold was pulled lower as professional investors reduced exposure amid heightened volatility.

In the UAE, the global rout translated into a swift correction in local prices. Dubai gold prices fell by more than Dh100 per gram, sliding to around Dh553 per gram from Dh589, mirroring international futures markets rather than weakening physical demand.

“This type of decline often lures physical buying from jewellery consumers and long-term investors throughout the Gulf,” Valecha said.

The move also underlined a key lesson for regional investors: futures markets can become temporarily decoupled from physical supply-demand dynamics. Violent downside moves do not necessarily signal the end of a cycle.

“Typically, liquidations like this have marked a position reset rather than the end of a bull phase, particularly when physical demand has held up,” he said.

Akoner cautioned that silver may remain more vulnerable in the near term. “Silver is different, as it remains more fragile after a speculative overshoot,” she said. “Unlike gold, silver lacks central-bank dip buyers and is more exposed to positioning, seasonal effects around Chinese New Year, and shifts in industrial demand.” She added that further volatility is likely as positioning normalises, and said eToro prefers to wait for clearer signs that excess leverage has fully washed out before re-engaging.

Read: Gold, silver slide as CME hikes margins after brutal selloff

What happens next

Valecha argues the crash was ultimately a leverage-induced failure, driven largely by overextended Chinese futures positioning colliding with tighter margin rules.

“The crash in silver and gold prices from their highs is purely due to overleveraged Chinese positions, and the fundamental bullish stance on both remains,” he said.

Silver remains structurally tight, with a supply deficit of around 9 per cent in 2025, projected to widen significantly by the end of the decade. Gold continues to see strong central-bank demand, while technically both metals have bounced from key moving averages.

Looking ahead, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Rising real yields, particularly if balance-sheet reduction accelerates under a more hawkish Fed stance, could pressure commodities in the near term. But for long-term investors, sharp corrections may offer staggered entry opportunities rather than signalling the end of the precious-metals cycle.

Wealth management and financial advisory in the Middle East have changed more in the past decade than they did in the previous three. The model, with its small pool of high-net-worth individuals, serviced through highly personalised, relationship-led advisory, was both simple and profitable. Access was scarce by design, digital investment was limited if present at all, and scale was neither expected nor required.

Fast forward to today, and that model is now misaligned with the market. The region is wealthier, younger, more digital, and more diverse in its financial needs. Dubai alone has seen a 78 per cent increase in individuals with liquid investment wealth of over $1m in the last decade. The UAE welcomed close to 9,800 new millionaires last year, while Saudi Arabia added a further 2,400. At the same time, one of the largest segments of the population remains materially underserved. These are the professionals who earn well, are digitally fluent, but fall below the traditional thresholds for private banking.

It is in this gap that a new advisory persona has taken hold.

The rise of digital influence

In the UAE, 64 per cent of the population sits within the 25–54 age bracket. People spend close to three hours a day on social media. This is not a fringe audience but rather the economic core of the country. In parallel, a new generation of investors is emerging globally as part of the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history, with more than $60tn expected to change hands over the next decade.

The individuals shaping early financial thinking for these audiences are no longer exclusively bank-employed advisors. They are finfluencers. Today, it’s content creators who translate investing, saving, and financial planning into relatable, lifestyle-driven narratives. And until recently, this sat outside the remit of regulated banking.

Why banks could afford to ignore finfluencers — until now

For most banks, finfluencers were previously viewed as a novelty rather than a strategic channel. The space was unregulated, advice quality was inconsistent, and the distance between a licensed advisor and a social media creator was simply too wide.

That dynamic is rapidly changing, evidenced in initiatives such as the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) introducing a formal licensing framework for financial content creators.

By setting a baseline of trust, the SCA is making collaboration between banks and finfluencers not just possible, but viable.

This, of course, does not signal the end of the traditional financial advisor. Complex planning, high-value portfolios, and life events requiring nuanced judgment still demand regulated expertise.

Instead, what is evolving is how trust is built and where engagement begins. Millennials and Gen X investors, for instance, often follow individual advisors across firms, demonstrating loyalty to people rather than institutions.

Licensed finfluencers operate in this same trust economy, but at scale. When aligned with regulated frameworks, they can serve as the top of the advisory funnel, educating and preparing clients long before a formal interaction occurs, effectively extending the advisory bench without compromising governance.

Why banks cannot sit this out

The economic rationale is clear. Beyond high-net-worth individuals, the region is seeing the rise of HENRYs (high earners not rich yet). Globally, by 2030, there will be around 250 million Millennial and Gen Z professionals earning over $100,000 a year. These customers will define the future of assets under management.

Banks have already started experimenting at the edges, from youth-focused accounts to prepaid cards for kids and teens. Finfluencers offer a more scalable, culturally relevant way to engage these segments early, when financial habits and service provider preferences are still being formed.

By waiving licensing fees for the first three years, the SCA framework effectively lowers the barrier to entry. Smaller ‘finfluencers’ can become licensed without prohibitive costs, allowing banks to pilot partnerships, test content formats, and measure impact without committing to large-scale programmes from day one.

Platform banking is what makes this viable

If banks have learned anything over the past decade, it is that chasing every new trend through disconnected point solutions is a reliable route to complexity and, ultimately, failure. So, this evolution will only work if they have the right operating model underneath.

Banks do not win loyalty in the AI era by bolting tools onto fragmented legacy estates. They win by treating the platform itself as the product. Platform thinking collapses silos, standardises journeys, and creates clear control points where intelligence can be applied consistently.

A modern engagement layer allows banks to own the end-to-end customer journey, from education and onboarding through to advice, servicing, and growth. Layered on top of this is an intelligence fabric, where AI augments every step: personalised content delivery, next-best-action recommendations, risk controls, and compliance monitoring. This is how incumbents regain speed without embarking on perpetual core replacement programmes.

Within such a model, finfluencers are not external anomalies. They become governed contributors within a broader ecosystem, amplifying reach while the bank retains orchestration, data integrity, and regulatory control.

A logical next step, not a leap of faith

Modernising wealth management is about more than adopting new technology. It requires a holistic approach where people, processes, and systems evolve together. By simplifying operations, integrating data and AI, and equipping advisors and support staff with the right tools, banks can create more seamless experiences for both clients and employees.

This approach not only enhances efficiency and decision-making but also positions firms to capitalise on emerging opportunities, such as the licensing of finfluencers, in a way that drives measurable impact. Ultimately, the future of wealth management will favour organisations that balance innovation with human expertise.

The writer is the regional sales director, Middle East at Backbase.