China’s economy began the year on a firmer footing as factory output quickened while retail sales and investment rebounded in January-February, offering early relief for policymakers as the US-Israeli tensions with Iran injects fresh uncertainty for growth.

The resilience followed a surge in exports driven by booming AI-related technology demand, which also buoyed upstream manufacturing, although analysts cautioned of risks to the outlook from geopolitical tensions, fragile consumer confidence and strains in global trade and energy markets.

Industrial output rose 6.3 per cent from the same period in the previous year, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Monday, up from the 5.2 per cent growth clocked in December. It beat a 5 per cent expansion forecast in a Reuters poll and marked the quickest growth since September last year.

Read more-UN climate chief warns Iran war exposes fossil fuel dependence

“While risks to the outlook have increased amid geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global trade and energy markets, the latest figures indicate that China entered the year with a firmer growth footing than previously thought,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, jumped 2.8 per cent, quickening from the 0.9 per cent pace in December for their biggest gain since October last year. Analysts had expected 2.5 per cent growth.

The strong impetus was driven in part by the country’s longest Lunar New Year holiday in February. The festivities helped boost total tourism spending by almost 19 per cent from the same holiday period last year, which was one day shorter.

But domestic tourism spending per trip dipped 0.2 per cent, suggesting consumers remain cautious.

Data from earlier last week, for instance, showed passenger vehicle sales at home tumbled 26 per cent in the first two months.

China combines January and February data releases to smooth out distortions from the festival holidays, which can fall in either month.

Unemployment ticks up, jobs ‘hard to find’

Monday’s data provided another encouraging sign for policymakers as an unexpected upturn in investment took some of the sting off the challenge of a protracted downturn in the critical property sector.

Fixed asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 1.8 per cent in the first two months, defying expectations for a 2.1 per cent decline after contracting 3.8 per cent in 2025 – its first annual drop in about three decades.

Infrastructure investment led the rebound, growing 11.4 per cent as policy support, including a new financing tool from banks to fund key projects, began to take effect.

The overall data, while showing some positive momentum, still suggest a wide gap between robust external demand and sluggish household consumption that analysts warn could hamper China’s long-term growth prospects.

“It cannot be ruled out that domestic demand data in March will still face downward pressure,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ, though he added that the overall data do not support an interest rate cut in the near term.

Last week’s lending data pointed to a continued slump in household borrowing.

Also, worryingly for income generation, the survey-based nationwide jobless rate rose to 5.3% in the first two months from December’s 5.1 per cent, the NBS data showed.

“The current employment landscape remains challenging and jobs are hard to find,” said a college graduate surnamed Bai, who majored in education while attending a job fair in Beijing.

Tensions impact to start feeding through in coming months

At the annual parliament meeting that closed last week, policymakers set this year’s economic growth target at 4.5 per cent -5 per cent, down from last year’s “around 5per cent”. The target was met in 2025 largely on the back of a record trade surplus of $1.2trn, deepening unease among China’s trading partners.

Analysts say China faces significant challenges as it tries to foster sustainable longer-term growth.

While the government pledged a “notable” lift in household consumption, it spelled out limited measures to suggest a turn toward aggressive demand‑side reforms.

The Middle East conflict adds fresh uncertainty as it drives up energy prices and rattles global trade, raising the stakes for U.S. President Donald Trump’s late-March trip to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping.

Fu Linghui, NBS spokesperson, told a press briefing on Monday that the Middle East war has stoked oil-price volatility and market jitters, but China’s overall energy supplies should help buffer external shocks. He said the conflict’s impact on domestic prices will require further scrutiny.

“The disturbance in the Middle East is set to show its impact on the global economy in coming months… I expect policymakers to respond through fiscal policy if necessary,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“The market will focus on the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and American leaders. While China will likely purchase more goods from the US to mitigate the trade imbalance, the war in the Middle East has made the meeting complicated.”

Traffic on Dubai’s Airport Road has returned to normal after earlier closures linked to a fire near Dubai International Airport (DXB) temporarily disrupted access to the area, according to an update from Dubai Police.

In a post on the social media platform X, Dubai Police confirmed that traffic had resumed following the earlier shutdown that affected vehicles coming from Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Al Khawaneej, as well as traffic from the Marrakech Street intersection heading toward Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road.

The reopening comes after authorities implemented precautionary measures early Monday following a fire reported near DXB.

Earlier in the day, some flights were diverted from Dubai International Airport to Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) after operations were temporarily suspended as a precaution while emergency teams responded to the incident.

To facilitate emergency access and manage congestion, Dubai Police temporarily closed several key routes in the airport vicinity, including Airport Road and the Airport Tunnel. Motorists were advised to use alternative routes while traffic restrictions were in place.

Additional closures were implemented at Al Garhoud Bridge leading to Casablanca Street, as well as at the Cargo Village and Marrakech Street intersections toward the airport.

Dubai Civil Defence said its teams responded quickly to the incident and successfully contained the blaze.

Authorities have not reported any major injuries in connection with the incident, and operations in the area have since stabilised, with traffic gradually returning to normal around the airport corridor.

The disruption to energy markets caused by the Iran war is an “abject lesson” in the risks of relying on fossil fuels, and underscores the case for governments to wean their economies off oil and gas, the UN climate secretary will tell EU policymakers on Monday.

While geographically far from the crisis in the Middle East, the European Union has felt its disruption through surging global energy prices. European gas prices have jumped by 50 per cent during the two-week war.

“Fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty, and replacing it with subservience and rising costs,” Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN climate change arm UNFCCC, will tell EU officials and government ministers at an event in Brussels.

“Europe is more reliant on fossil fuel imports than almost any other major economy,” Stiell will say, in prepared remarks that warned reliance on fossil fuels was leaving consumers “at the mercy of geopolitical shocks and price volatility”.

The EU imports more than 90 per cent of its oil and 80 per cent of its gas.

EU leaders are hurriedly drafting emergency measures to shield consumers from the energy price spike, and avoid a repeat of Europe’s 2022 energy crisis, when Russia slashed gas deliveries, sending prices to record highs.

In the longer term, the European Commission says its climate change strategy to replace fossil fuels with locally-produced renewable and nuclear energy will secure countries’ energy security, and cut them free from volatile fuel prices.

But governments including Italy and Hungary are urging Brussels to weaken its climate change policies, to provide short-term cost relief for industries.

Stiell will warn doing this would be “completely delusional” and argue the shift to renewable sources like wind and solar power means cheaper energy, jobs in clean-technology industries, and secure supplies.

“Meek dependence on fossil fuel imports will leave Europe forever lurching from crisis to crisis,” Stiell will say.

“Renewables turn the tables. Sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits.”

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has cancelled all remaining Class 12 board examinations scheduled to take place across several Middle East countries, according to an official circular issued by the board on March 15, 2026.

The circular, shared on CBSE’s official social media channels, states that all Class XII examinations scheduled between March 16 and April 10, 2026, stand cancelled for students studying in CBSE-affiliated schools in Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The decision follows a review of the feasibility of conducting the exams in the region. In the notice addressed to principals of CBSE-affiliated schools, the board said the decision was taken after assessing inputs and requests received from schools and authorities in the affected countries.

The circular notes that the review was conducted in continuation of several earlier notifications issued on March 1, March 3, March 5, March 7 and March 9, which had initially postponed a number of examinations amid ongoing regional disruptions.

As part of the latest decision, CBSE confirmed that all previously postponed Class 12 examinations in these countries will also stand cancelled.

The board added that a separate notification will be issued outlining how results will be declared for affected students.

“The mode of declaration of results for Class XII candidates in these countries will be notified separately in due course,” the circular states.

The directive was issued under Circular-6 (CBSE/CE/SPPS/2026/2) and signed by Dr Sanyam Bhardwaj, Controller of Examinations at CBSE.

The notice was also circulated to Indian diplomatic missions across the region, including the Indian embassies in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Muscat, Doha, Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as the Consulate General of India in Dubai and CBSE’s regional office in Dubai.

The move affects thousands of students enrolled in CBSE-affiliated schools across the Gulf, where the Indian curriculum is widely followed by expatriate communities. Further clarity on evaluation and result calculation is expected once CBSE releases its follow-up notification.

Dubai’s fast-growing food delivery sector is quietly stress-testing its operational resilience as regional tensions linked to the USA, Israel and Iran create uncertainty across the Middle East.

For millions of residents in the UAE, ordering food or groceries through a smartphone app remains a routine part of daily life. But behind the scenes, major platforms are monitoring developments closely, activating safety protocols for riders and maintaining contingency plans to ensure services remain operational.

Companies including noon, Careem and talabat say their platforms remain active across the UAE, with delivery services continuing to process orders normally. At the same time, they are adapting logistics, communicating frequently with riders and coordinating with authorities to ensure safety remains central to operations.

The challenge for these companies is balancing two priorities: maintaining access to essential goods for customers while protecting the thousands of riders who power the region’s gig-economy delivery networks.

Industry executives say their operational models, which rely on distributed logistics networks, digital communication tools and flexible delivery zones, are designed to respond quickly to disruptions.

Still, companies acknowledge that delays, service adjustments or temporary pauses in certain areas may occur if safety concerns escalate.

Platforms maintain operations

Delivery platform noon said its services across the UAE remain operational, with internal teams continuing to monitor developments in the region.

“At noon, our priority remains the communities we serve and the safety of our delivery heroes,” a noon spokesperson said.

The company said its operational teams are maintaining heightened vigilance while ensuring customers can continue accessing services across its digital platforms. “Our teams continue to adapt to the evolving situation, operating with heightened care to protect our people at every step,” the spokesperson said.

Despite regional tensions, the company emphasized that its services remain active.

“We remain fully operational across our platforms, ensuring the services you rely on are fully available as we continue to serve you responsibly and reliably,” the spokesperson said.

Noon said it continues to monitor developments and may provide updates if operational changes become necessary. “Thank you for your patience, and for your kindness toward our delivery heroes during this time,” the spokesperson added.

According to the company, key operational measures currently in place include:

• Operations remain active across all noon platforms.
• Rider safety and support remain top priorities, with teams following required safety protocols.
• The company continues monitoring developments and will provide updates if needed.

Real-time monitoring of delivery zones

Careem, one of the region’s largest ride-hailing and delivery platforms, said it is closely assessing the safety of its operations in real time.

The company said its operational model allows it to evaluate conditions at a granular level across different areas of the UAE. “Careem was founded with a clear purpose: to simplify and improve the lives of people in our region,” the company said in a statement.

“During such times of regional volatility, our primary focus remains the safety of our Captains, customers, colleagues, and partners, while ensuring that we continue to provide essential support to the communities we serve.”

Careem refers to its drivers and delivery workers as “Captains,” a distinction the company says reflects its internal culture.“At Careem, we do not have ‘drivers.’ We have Captains. This distinction is at the core of our culture and shapes how we manage this crisis,” the company said.

To maintain safety, the platform said it is continuously evaluating operating conditions and adjusting services if risks arise.

“Where we have determined that Captain safety may be at risk, or when public safety alerts have been issued, we have taken action immediately,” the company said.

Communication with riders is handled through several channels, including WhatsApp groups, SMS alerts and dedicated support teams.

“We are in active, 24/7 communication with our Captain community through dedicated WhatsApp channels, SMS, and support teams to provide them with real-time guidance on safe operating zones,” the company said.

The company also stressed that riders are not required to remain online during uncertain conditions.“Most importantly, we have reinforced to all our partners that Captains are not required to be online if they have concerns about doing so,” the statement said.

Supply chains under pressure

Beyond rider safety, delivery platforms are also closely monitoring supply chains as uncertainty drives changes in consumer purchasing behavior.

Careem said it has already observed increased demand for essential grocery items across its platform.“We have observed a notable surge in demand for staples such as water, rice, pasta, and fresh produce,” the company said.

To handle these demand spikes, the company said its distribution network is operating with additional capacity buffers.

“Our distribution centers across the UAE remain fully operational,” Careem said.

The company added that it is coordinating closely with both local suppliers and international import partners to maintain product availability.

“We are in continuous coordination with local producers and import partners to maintain steady replenishment cycles,” the company said.

“Our teams are working around the clock to ensure continuity across all services where it is safe to do so.”

Such supply chain flexibility has become increasingly important for delivery platforms that now play a critical role in distributing everyday essentials to urban populations.

Coordination with authorities

As part of their contingency planning, delivery companies say they remain in close communication with government authorities to ensure compliance with safety guidelines.

Careem confirmed that it is coordinating with UAE authorities as conditions evolve.“Careem is in close coordination with the relevant UAE authorities and is following official guidance on safety measures, knowing that the UAE has a highly sophisticated system in place,” the company said.

The company said its internal crisis-management systems allow it to quickly adjust services across business verticals.

“We are helping restore normalcy in these turbulent times through robust and agile crisis protocols, and readiness to modify services across verticals should the safety situation warrant it,” the company said.

Careem chief executive Mudassir Sheikha said operational continuity remains important for communities relying on delivery services.

“Our priority remains the safety of our Captains and the wellbeing of the communities we serve,” Sheikha said.

“Our teams are working around the clock to navigate this situation and continue providing the essential services people rely on.”

However, he acknowledged that the company’s safety-first approach could lead to service disruptions.

“To keep our Captains safe, we are managing operations with extra care. This may result in some disruptions or delays, and we ask for your patience and kindness toward our Captains as we navigate this together,” Sheikha said.

“We hope and pray that peace prevails soon. Stay safe.”

Rider safety at the center of operations

Talabat, another major delivery platform operating across the Middle East, said rider safety remains central to its operational strategy during periods of instability.

“At talabat, the safety and wellbeing of the riders, customers, and partners is our absolute priority and guides every operational decision we make,” said May Youssef, senior director of Corporate Affairs at talabat.

The company said it continuously monitors regional developments and adjusts its operations accordingly.

“We continuously monitor developments across the region and operate only where it is safe to do so, always in coordination with local authorities and in line with official guidance,” Youssef said.

A key element of talabat’s approach is ensuring riders retain full flexibility over whether they work.

“Riders are never required to log in. If they do not feel comfortable working, they can choose to stay offline at any time with no consequences,” she said.

For riders who voluntarily choose to remain active on the platform, the company has introduced additional financial incentives.

“For those who voluntarily choose to be online, we have introduced additional financial support during this period,” Youssef said.

Operational monitoring on the ground

Talabat said it has deployed dedicated operational teams to monitor rider safety and delivery conditions in real time.

Across the UAE, more than 30 field staff members known as “tPatrollers” are responsible for providing on-ground support to riders.

“Across the UAE, more than 30 tPatrollers actively support riders in real time, monitoring conditions, ensuring rider safety, and providing operational updates across the network,” Youssef said.

In addition, supervisors stationed at talabat Mart locations coordinate operations and logistics.

“More than 10 talabat Mart supervisors are stationed directly at our stores, overseeing operations at store level and working closely with tPatrollers to ensure safe and coordinated operations,” she said.

Delivery zones may be temporarily paused if safety risks arise.

“Specific zones or areas may be temporarily paused based on guidance from local authorities, and services only resume once it is confirmed safe to do so,” Youssef said.

“During these periods, no deliveries are assigned in those areas, and riders are immediately informed.”

Technology and insurance safeguards

Delivery platforms are also relying on technology and insurance systems to support rider safety.

Talabat said riders benefit from enhanced accident insurance coverage through fleet partners as well as digital safety monitoring tools.

“Our platform also uses technology-enabled safety programs, including telematics tools that promote safer riding behaviour and monitor driving patterns,” Youssef said.

Riders are also required to follow strict safety protocols while on the road.

“These include operating only in areas deemed safe by authorities, adhering to traffic laws, wearing mandatory protective equipment such as helmets and safety gear, and following safety standards supported by telematics technology,” she said.

Ensuring access to essentials

Maintaining stable access to everyday goods has also become a priority for delivery platforms during periods of regional uncertainty.

Talabat said its marketplace includes thousands of locally produced items sourced from UAE suppliers.

“Across our Local Shops marketplace, we feature more than 4,000 Made in the UAE SKUs, and over 2,000 local products through talabat Mart,” Youssef said.

To help maintain price stability, the company has also introduced a price-locking initiative.

“At talabat Mart, we introduced a Locked Prices initiative covering more than 300 essential SKUs, where prices are reviewed and locked on a weekly basis,” she said.

The company said it has increased procurement planning to reduce the risk of price volatility.

“This represents a significant investment on our side, particularly in fresh produce and fruits and vegetables, where we proactively secure stock in advance,” Youssef said.

Riders as essential workers

Despite the technology underpinning the sector, delivery platforms say the resilience of their operations ultimately depends on riders working across cities.

“In moments like these, we’re reminded that riders are often the ones keeping communities connected to essential services,” Youssef said.

Customers can support riders through tipping features in the app.

“Customers who wish to show appreciation can do so through tips in the app, with 100% of tips going directly to riders,” she said.

Talabat recently introduced a program to match customer tips in several markets, effectively doubling rider earnings during the period.“At the end of the day, our focus remains on supporting communities responsibly while always prioritising the safety and wellbeing of the riders who keep these services running,” Youssef said.