UAE braces for a hotter end to 2026 as El Niño strengthens, rainfall outlook shifts
The NCM expects temperatures across most of the UAE to exceed seasonal averages in October, with the probability of above-normal conditions surpassing 80 per cent
19 October, 2026
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The UAE is likely to experience above-average temperatures and near- to above-normal rainfall between October and December 2026, as the El Niño climate phenomenon is forecast to strengthen through the end of the year, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
In its Seasonal Climate Outlook for October to December 2026, the NCM said most climate models indicate that very strong El Niño conditions will continue to intensify until the end of 2026 and persist into spring 2027. The forecast points to a warmer-than-average final quarter, with the possibility of increased rainfall across parts of the country.
Temperatures could rise up to 2°C in October
The NCM expects temperatures across most of the UAE to exceed seasonal averages in October, with the probability of above-normal conditions surpassing 80 per cent. Its deterministic forecast suggests temperatures could be 1°C to 2°C higher than normal during the month.
Read more: Will your UAE flight be delayed? GCAA flags weather conditions that could disrupt operations
The warming trend is expected to continue through December. The seasonal outlook places the probability of above-normal temperatures across the UAE at more than 80 per cent, with readings potentially ranging from 0.5°C to 1.5°C above the seasonal average.
The projections indicate that the country is likely to face warmer-than-usual conditions during the final three months of the year, although actual temperatures will depend on evolving weather patterns.
Rainfall outlook points to a potentially wetter season
Rainfall forecasts for October are more mixed. The NCM puts the probability of normal rainfall across most of the UAE at around 40 per cent, while the northern parts of the country have a greater likelihood of receiving above-normal rainfall. Its deterministic forecast points to generally normal rainfall during the month.
For October to December, the outlook indicates an increased chance of near- to above-normal rainfall across most of the country. The probability of above-normal seasonal rainfall exceeds 40 per cent, although the deterministic forecast suggests rainfall levels will remain close to normal across much of the region.
The projections point to the possibility of a wetter-than-average season in some areas, but they do not guarantee higher rainfall. Actual precipitation will depend on weather systems and atmospheric conditions as the season progresses.
NCM cautions against unverified weather claims
In a statement reported by the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on September 11, 2026, the NCM addressed social media claims about severe El Niño impacts, including predictions of flooding and unusually heavy rainfall in the UAE.
The Centre said El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon whose direct effects are concentrated in the Pacific Ocean, while its influence on the UAE is indirect. The phenomenon can contribute to drought in some regions and above-average rainfall in others.
The NCM said the strong El Niño conditions forecast this year could be associated with beneficial rainfall in the UAE. However, heavy rainfall could still occur at times if suitable weather conditions develop.
The Centre added that weather conditions remained stable and were being monitored around the clock. Significant weather events would be communicated in advance through official channels, supported by relevant reports and warnings.
The NCM also urged residents and media organisations to verify weather information, avoid circulating unconfirmed claims and rely on official sources for updates.

















