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Middle East crisis clouds global trade outlook, as growth set to slow: WTO

The Geneva-based body stated that sustained increases in energy prices linked to the conflict could further reduce trade growth

Neesha Salian
Neesha Salian

22 March, 2026

Middle East crisis clouds global trade outlook, as growth set to slow: WTO
Image: WAM

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Article Summary
The WTO projects global trade growth slowing to 1.9% in 2026 after a 4.6% surge in 2025, driven by AI-related demand. The Middle East crisis poses a significant downside risk via higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions, potentially reducing trade growth further. Asia is expected to lead import growth. Predictable trade policies and supply chain resilience are crucial.

Global trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 after a stronger-than-anticipated expansion in 2025, with the ongoing crisis in the Middle East posing a significant downside risk through higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday.

In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the WTO said global merchandise trade growth is projected to ease to 1.9 per cent in 2026, down from 4.6 per cent in 2025, as a surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related goods fades, and trade flows normalise.

The Geneva-based body warned that sustained increases in energy prices linked to the conflict could further reduce trade growth, with goods trade potentially slowing to as little as 1.4 per cent under a high-energy-price scenario.

AI-led rebound fades

Trade growth in 2025 was driven by strong demand for AI-enabling products, which helped offset the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty.

According to the WTO, trade in AI-related goods rose 21.9 per cent year-on-year to $4.18tn, accounting for 42 per cent of global trade growth despite representing a relatively small share of overall trade.

This surge, alongside front-loaded imports ahead of tariff increases, pushed global merchandise trade growth above earlier expectations in 2025.

However, economists say these temporary factors are unlikely to persist at the same scale.

Baseline outlook points to moderation

Under the WTO’s baseline scenario, which excludes major energy shocks, merchandise trade growth is forecast at 1.9 per cent in 2026, before picking up to 2.6 per cent in 2027.

Commercial services trade is also expected to moderate, growing 4.8 per cent in 2026 after 5.3 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 5.1 per cent in 2027.

Combined goods and services trade is projected to grow 2.7 per cent in 2026, compared with 4.7 per cent in 2025, while global GDP growth is expected to edge down slightly from 2.9 per cent in 2025 to 2.8 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the outlook reflects underlying resilience but is increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

She cautioned that rising energy costs could increase pressure on consumers and businesses and pose risks to global food security.

Energy and supply chain risks

The WTO said elevated oil and gas prices could reduce global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points and cut trade growth by 0.5 percentage points, with sharper impacts in energy-importing regions.

The conflict has disrupted critical trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy and commodity flows.

Shipping and air transport disruptions have increased costs and added uncertainty for global supply chains.

The report also highlighted risks to fertiliser supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which are critical to global agriculture. Disruptions could affect agricultural production and food prices globally.

Services trade is also under pressure, with transport and travel disruptions weighing on growth. In a high energy price scenario, services trade growth could slow to 4.1 per cent in 2026, down from the baseline projection.

Regional outlook and policy landscape

Regionally, Asia is expected to lead merchandise import growth in 2026 at 3.3 per cent, followed by Africa at 3.2 per cent and South America at 2.5 per cent, while growth in Europe and the Middle East is forecast to remain subdued.

On the export side, Asia and South America are projected to post the strongest gains at 3.5 per cent, while Middle East export growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.6 per cent.

The WTO added that despite policy shifts and tariff adjustments, the multilateral trading system remains largely intact, with 72 per cent of global trade still conducted under most-favoured-nation terms as of early 2026.

Upside potential remains

Despite the weaker outlook, the WTO said there is scope for stronger trade growth if the conflict in the Middle East eases and demand for AI-related goods remains robust.

In such a scenario, merchandise trade growth could be boosted by 0.5 percentage points, reaching as high as 2.4 per cent in 2026.
However, the WTO said these factors were unlikely to continue at the same pace.

Overall, the body said the trajectory for global trade will depend on geopolitical developments, energy market trends and the sustainability of technology-driven demand, urging policymakers to maintain predictable trade policies and strengthen supply chain resilience.

UAE joins global call to protect Strait of Hormuz shipping route

Joint statement from more than 20 countries warns of wider economic risks and calls for an immediate halt to attacks on commercial vessels and civilian infrastructure

Gareth van Zyl
Gareth van Zyl

21 March, 2026

UAE joins global call to protect Strait of Hormuz shipping route

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Over 20 nations condemned Iran's attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats to global energy security and international peace. They demanded Iran cease disruptive activities like mining and drone strikes. The statement highlights the strait's importance for energy supplies and supports initiatives to stabilize markets, including releasing strategic petroleum reserves and ensuring maritime security.

More than 20 countries — including the likes of the UAE, UK, France and Japan — have issued a joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz, warning of growing risks to global energy markets and international security.

The statement, published by Emirates News Agency (WAM) on Saturday, criticised what it described as attacks on unarmed commercial vessels, strikes on civilian infrastructure, and the “de facto closure” of one of the world’s most critical shipping routes.

“We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf,” the statement said, adding that the disruption of shipping lanes and energy infrastructure poses a threat to international peace and security.

The signatories also called on Iran to immediately halt activities including the laying of mines, drone and missile attacks, and any actions that obstruct commercial navigation through the strait.

Global energy risk intensifies

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global oil and gas flows, with a significant share of the world’s energy supplies passing through the narrow waterway.

The joint statement warned that any sustained disruption would have far-reaching consequences, particularly for vulnerable economies dependent on stable energy supplies.

“The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable,” the statement noted.

In response to the escalating situation, the countries welcomed a move by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release strategic petroleum reserves, aimed at stabilising global markets amid rising uncertainty.

They also signalled plans to work with major energy producers to increase output where possible.

Call for maritime security and de-escalation

The joint statement reiterated that freedom of navigation remains a cornerstone of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It called for an immediate moratorium on attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, particularly oil and gas facilities, and stressed the importance of maintaining open and secure shipping routes.

“We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait,” the statement said, pointing to ongoing international planning to safeguard maritime traffic.

The statement comes as tensions in the region continue to raise concerns over prolonged supply disruptions and further volatility in global energy markets.

Iran war update: 5 key things to know on day 22

Tensions continue to ripple through global energy markets, aviation and geopolitics as the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week

Iran war update: 5 key things to know on day 22
Credit: Getty Images

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The US-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week, causing global disruption. Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz for Japan. The US waives sanctions to ease oil supply concerns. Reports indicate Iran launched missiles towards Diego Garcia. Airlines are cutting flights due to rising fuel costs. Trump opposes a ceasefire, urging international involvement in securing the Strait of Hormuz.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its fourth week, with global implications intensifying across energy markets, trade routes and military positioning.

From developments in the Strait of Hormuz to fresh comments from US President Donald Trump, here are five key things to know on day 22.

Iran signals possible opening of Strait of Hormuz for Japan

Iran is ready to allow Japanese-related vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kyodo news, citing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Tehran has begun talks with Tokyo about potentially reopening access, Araqchi said in a phone interview.

Japan relies on the strait for around 90 per cent of its oil imports. The waterway has largely been restricted during the conflict, contributing to a spike in global oil prices and prompting countries to release reserves.

US waives sanctions to ease oil supply pressure

The Trump administration has introduced a 30-day waiver on sanctions related to the purchase of Iranian oil at sea.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move could bring around 140 million barrels of oil back into global markets, helping to stabilise supply.

The decision reflects concerns in Washington that rising oil prices could impact businesses and consumers ahead of the November midterm elections.

Reports of Iranian missile attempt near Diego Garcia

Iran reportedly fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles towards Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing US officials.

One missile failed mid-flight, while a US warship launched an interceptor at the second. It remains unclear whether the interception was successful.

There has been no official confirmation from the White House or UK authorities.

Airlines cut flights as fuel costs surge

United Airlines has announced it will cancel around 5 per cent of its planned flights in the short term due to rising jet fuel costs linked to the conflict.

CEO Scott Kirby said current fuel prices could add $11bn in annual expenses if sustained.

The airline expects to restore its full schedule later this year, assuming conditions stabilise.

Trump rules out ceasefire for now

US President Donald Trump said he does not support a ceasefire at this stage of the conflict.

“You don’t do a ceasefire when you’re obliterating the other side,” he told reporters.

Trump also suggested that Israel could be ready to end the war once US military objectives are achieved, while calling for more international involvement to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

He added that countries such as China and Japan should play a greater role in ensuring safe passage through the critical shipping route.

Chuck Norris, legendary martial artist and actor, dies at 86

Chuck Norris, the US action star best known for Walker, Texas Ranger and a long career in martial arts and Hollywood, died on Thursday, his family said in a statement shared on Instagram

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

20 March, 2026

Chuck Norris, legendary martial artist and actor, dies at 86
Chuck Norris as Cordell “Cord” Walker. (Getty Images)

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Chuck Norris, martial arts icon and star of "Walker, Texas Ranger," has died at 86, his family announced. Known for action films and his own martial arts system, Chun Kuk Do, Norris was a six-time karate champion. He became a pop culture phenomenon through the "Chuck Norris Facts" meme, solidifying his legacy beyond entertainment.

Chuck Norris, the US martial artist and Hollywood action star best known for Walker, Texas Ranger, has died at the age of 86, according to a statement shared by his family on Instagram.

Reuters and AP both reported the death on Friday, citing the family’s announcement.

“It is with heavy hearts that our family shares the sudden passing of our beloved Chuck Norris yesterday morning,” the family said in the statement.

They described him as “a martial artist, actor, and a symbol of strength” to the world, and “a devoted husband, a loving father and grandfather” to his family.

Norris built a career that stretched from competitive martial arts into action films and television, becoming a household name through Walker, Texas Ranger. He was also known for films including The Way of the Dragon, in which he appeared opposite Bruce Lee, as well as a string of 1980s action titles that cemented his reputation as one of Hollywood’s best-known tough-guy stars.

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A post shared by Chuck Norris (@chucknorris)

Beyond acting, Norris was a major figure in martial arts. AP reported that he was a six-time undefeated World Professional Middleweight Karate champion and later developed his own martial arts system, Chun Kuk Do.

His public image also endured well beyond film and television. In later years, Norris became a pop culture phenomenon through the viral “Chuck Norris Facts” meme, which turned his screen persona into internet folklore and introduced him to a new generation of fans.

The news came just days after Norris marked his 86th birthday on social media. In a final post highlighted by multiple outlets, he shared a video of himself boxing and joked: “I don’t age. I level up.”

Some entertainment outlets reported that Norris had recently suffered a medical emergency in Hawaii, though the family’s statement did not disclose a cause of death.

Norris leaves behind a legacy spanning martial arts, film, television and popular culture, with tributes expected from across the entertainment world in the hours ahead.

Eid Mubarak 2026: Images of faith, family and celebration from across the world

From prayer and family gatherings to food, fashion and acts of charity, Eid Al Fitr is one of the world’s biggest shared moments

Gareth van Zyl
Gareth van Zyl

20 March, 2026

Eid Mubarak 2026: Images of faith, family and celebration from across the world
A man hold his son to look through a telescope to sight the new moon ahead of Eid al-Fitr which marks the end of the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan at the observatory office on Lhoknga beach in Aceh on March 19, 2026. (Credit: Getty Images)

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Eid Al Fitr 2026, celebrated by over 2 billion Muslims worldwide, is marked by joy and reflection. This year, celebrations in countries like the UAE are measured, with authorities prioritizing safety through indoor prayers and enhanced traffic readiness due to the regional situation. Family gatherings shift indoors.

Across continents, Eid Al Fitr 2026 is being marked with joy, reflection and togetherness, making it one of the most visually striking celebrations on the global calendar. The festival comes at the end of Ramadan and is observed by a worldwide Muslim population that has reached more than 2 billion in 2020, according to the Pew Research Centre.

This year, the mood in countries such as the UAE is celebratory but more measured. Authorities have stepped up safety and traffic readiness for Eid, while prayers are being held indoors across the country to prioritise worshippers’ safety amid the current regional situation. That means many family moments, greetings and gatherings are expected to shift into homes, malls, mosques and other indoor venues this year.

Pictured below is a selection of some photos of Eid Al Fitr 2026 celebrations from across the world.

BEIRUT, LEBANON – MARCH 20: Worshippers take part in the Eid al-Fitr prayer marking the end of Ramadan inside of the Mohammad Al Amin Mosque on March 20, 2026 in Beirut, Lebanon. This year, Eid al-Fitr comes amid a reignited war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant and political group. More than one million Lebanese have been displaced during the conflict, in which Israel has conducted daily bombing across the country, including central Beirut. (Photo by Adri Salido/Getty Images)
BEIRUT, LEBANON – MARCH 20: Worshippers take part in the Eid al-Fitr prayer marking the end of Ramadan inside of the Mohammad Al Amin Mosque on March 20, 2026 in Beirut, Lebanon. This year, Eid al-Fitr comes amid a reignited war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant and political group. More than one million Lebanese have been displaced during the conflict, in which Israel has conducted daily bombing across the country, including central Beirut. (Photo by Adri Salido/Getty Images)
KRAKOW, POLAND – MARCH 20: Members of the Muslim community offer Eid al-Fitr prayers inside a sports hall in Krakow, Poland on March 20, 2026. As the Muslim community continues to grow and a sports hall was rented to host the community to celebrate the Eid al-Fitr , marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by Omar Marques/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Muslim worshippers gather around the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest shrine, at the Grand Mosque complex in Saudi Arabia’s holy city of Mecca on March 20, 2026 for the early morning prayers for Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT – A Yemeni boy looks on as others offer the morning Eid al-Fitr prayers, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan, outside a mosque in the capital Sanaa on March 20, 2026. (Photo by Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT – This aerial view shows Albanian muslim worshippers attending the morning prayers for the Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan, near the Grand Mosque at the main square in Durres on March 20, 2026. (Photo by Adnan Beci / AFP via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT – Muslim worshippers gather for the early morning prayers for Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, along a main street outside the Siddiq Mosque in eastern Cairo’s Heliopolis district on March 20, 2026. (Photo by Ahmed HASAN / AFP via Getty Images)
DUBAI, UAE – MARCH 20: Muslims gather to perform Eid al-Fitr prayer at Al Farooq Omar Bin Al Khattab Mosque in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on March 20, 2026. (Photo by Waleed Zein/Anadolu via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT – A Muslim devotee attends the morning prayers celebrating the holiday of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, at the Mary Mother of Jesus Mosque in Abu Dhabi early on March 20, 2026. (Photo by Ryan Lim / AFP via Getty Images)
Afghan Muslims gather to offer Eid al-Fitr prayers, which marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan at the Kharqa Sharif mosque in Kandahar on March 19, 2026. (Photo by Sanaullah SEIAM / AFP via Getty Images)

UAE weather forecast: Rain, thunderstorms and a chance of hail

Authorities say they are proactively preparing for unstable conditions, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi set for a cloudy, rainy spell over the coming week

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

20 March, 2026

UAE weather forecast: Rain, thunderstorms and a chance of hail
Forecasts from Windy.com show that thunderstorms are expected across the UAE on Saturday, 21 March.

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The UAE is under a weather alert for the coming days, with rain, thunderstorms, and potential hail expected in areas like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. NCEMA is proactively monitoring the situation and activating contingency plans. Residents should anticipate varying rainfall, strong winds, and reduced visibility, taking caution and staying updated with official weather forecasts.

The UAE has issued a fresh weather alert, with rain, thunderstorms and the possibility of hail expected across parts of the country over the coming days, as authorities step up preparations for unstable conditions.

According to the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA), authorities are taking a proactive approach to the changing conditions.

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In a recent update, it said preparations are underway “within the framework of proactive preparations for the potential impacts on the country”.

It also noted that weather developments are being continuously monitored, alongside the activation of continuity plans where needed.

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A post shared by NCEMA (@ncemauae)

The latest forecast points to unsettled conditions across parts of the UAE, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with rainfall of varying intensity, possible thunderstorms and the chance of hail in some areas.

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In Dubai, the forecast from Saturday, March 21 through to Friday, March 27 indicates a mainly cloudy and unsettled stretch, with daytime temperatures ranging between 26°C and 30°C and overnight lows between 20°C and 22°C. Thunderstorms are expected in parts of the emirate on several days during the week.

Screenshot: Apple Weather.

In Abu Dhabi, temperatures are set to range from 27°C to 30°C during the day, with lows between 21°C and 23°C. The capital is also expected to experience cloudy conditions and thunderstorms on multiple days over the coming week.

Screenshot: Apple Weather.

Authorities have warned residents to expect rainfall of varying intensity, a chance of hail in some areas, and stronger winds that could lead to blowing dust and reduced visibility.

The unstable spell is expected to continue through much of the week, before clearer and sunnier conditions return towards next weekend.

Residents are advised to monitor official weather updates and exercise caution on the roads during periods of rain, thunder and reduced visibility.

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