Editor’s note: The Strait question — will Iran reopen Hormuz after Trump’s ceasefire?
As a US-Iran ceasefire takes hold, attention turns to whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen — a decision with major consequences for oil, trade and confidence
08 April, 2026
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In just 41 days, regional tensions have delivered a sharp shock to the global economy.
Since the escalation began in late February, oil prices have surged, supply chains have come under pressure, and governments from Thailand to South Africa have been forced to reassess energy security.
Here in the GCC, the impact has been felt — not just economically. Periodic missile and drone incidents have introduced a layer of uncertainty, testing business confidence and day-to-day operations.
Major regional events have been postponed, including Formula One races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, while sectors such as hospitality and aviation have seen temporary slowdowns.
Air traffic through Dubai International Airport dropped significantly at the height of the disruption, with gradual recovery now underway. Dubai’s property market has also seen a short-term dip in transaction volumes, though experts say underlying fundamentals remain strong.
That resilience is important, especially as countries such as the UAE have had to contend with more than 2,700 projectiles during this period, with over 95 per cent intercepted.
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran has brought a degree of cautious relief.
But the ceasefire comes with a critical condition: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
This narrow waterway remains the single most important artery for global energy flows. Right now, it is still heavily constrained.
Shipping data suggests traffic through the Strait remains down by more than 90 per cent, with Iranian-controlled passage points — including via Larak Island — adding cost and complexity to global trade.
Iran has indicated it wants to retain a level of control over the Strait as part of any broader agreement. The US, meanwhile, has made clear that full reopening is essential.
Read more: This is Iran’s 10-point proposal to end the war
That tension sits at the heart of the current ceasefire.
It also reflects a familiar negotiating style from Trump. In his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, he describes starting from maximalist positions before stepping back: a strategy that can create leverage, but also unpredictability.
The question now is whether that approach will translate into a lasting outcome.
Mediation efforts, including those linked to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, have helped bring both sides to this point. But the agreement remains fragile, and highly dependent on what happens next.
A meaningful reopening would stabilise markets and restore confidence. A prolonged standoff, however, risks extending disruption.
Everything hinges on the Strait.
- Gareth van Zyl is the group editor of Gulf Business.

























