Food continues to arrive on UAE supermarket shelves despite disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, but industry leaders warn that the system keeping products moving is operating under increasing pressure.

Executives across the food, logistics and fresh produce sectors say consumers are unlikely to see widespread shortages in the immediate term.

However, the mechanisms that support the UAE’s heavily import-dependent food ecosystem are being forced to adapt to longer delivery times, mounting freight costs, port congestion and growing pressure on cold-chain infrastructure.

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The consensus among industry leaders is that the challenge is no longer limited to a single shipping route. Instead, the disruption is creating a cascading series of constraints that stretch from maritime access and port operations to trucking networks, warehousing facilities and retail replenishment cycles.

While alternative routes are helping to maintain supply continuity, executives say they cannot fully replicate the efficiency and capacity of established maritime corridors that have long underpinned Gulf food imports.

Shipping access remains the root cause

According to Sven Tietz, co-founder and CEO at HeadsUp, the most critical bottleneck remains access through the Strait itself.

“The primary bottleneck remains shipping access through the Strait itself. The other constraints are second-order effects downstream of that disruption. If shipping access existed normally, the congestion and inland pressure wouldn’t exist in the same way,” Tietz said.

However, once shipping capacity becomes constrained, the pressure rapidly shifts elsewhere in the supply chain.

“That said, once you accept that maritime access is constrained, the biggest operational bottleneck by far is land transport capacity. Trucks, drivers, and overland corridor throughput are the limiting factor at the moment,” he said.

The sudden shift from maritime transport to greater reliance on land-based logistics has exposed structural limitations that are difficult to address quickly.

“We’ve essentially moved from a scalable maritime logistics system to a much narrower land-based one overnight. Global supply chains are simply not designed to move equivalent food volumes by road at short notice,” Tietz said.

As a result, while shipping access remains the underlying cause of the disruption, much of the day-to-day operational stress is now emerging across inland transport networks.

“So while the root cause is unquestionably shipping access, the day-to-day pain is increasingly showing up in inland logistics capacity,” he said.

Delivery times become less predictable

One of the most immediate consequences of the disruption has been the extension of delivery schedules across multiple food categories.

Industry executives caution that the impact is not uniform. Some products continue to move through supply chains relatively smoothly because importers and distributors entered the disruption with healthy inventory levels already positioned in warehouses.

“It’s difficult to generalise because the impact varies significantly by product category and route. Some products have continued flowing relatively normally because there was stock in warehouses. In those cases, availability has remained stable, even if pricing has moved materially,” Tietz said.

Other product categories are facing simultaneous pressure on both availability and cost.

“Other categories have been affected on both fronts: availability and pricing simultaneously,” he said.

Yet many operators say the greatest challenge is not necessarily longer transit times, but uncertainty.

“In many ways, the bigger issue for operators isn’t even the lead times. It’s the unpredictability,” Tietz said.

Hospitality businesses, restaurants and food retailers can typically adapt to stable conditions, even when costs rise significantly. What becomes more difficult is planning menus, procurement cycles and inventory requirements when product availability and pricing fluctuate continuously.

“Hospitality businesses can adapt to almost any stable environment, even an expensive one. What becomes incredibly difficult is managing operations when you don’t know what’s going to be available tomorrow, next week, or at what price,” he said.

Agility becomes a competitive advantage

The disruption is also accelerating a shift in procurement behaviour across the food sector.

Operators are increasingly seeking alternative suppliers, substitute products and multiple sourcing channels rather than relying on a single supply route.

“That’s why optionality becomes so important during periods like this. Operators need visibility not just on their incumbent supplier, but on the broader landscape of viable alternatives around them,” Tietz said.

He warned that as availability becomes more constrained, businesses will need to become significantly more agile.

“Availability will become more constrained and hand-to-mouth. The ability to quickly identify alternative products, suppliers or routes becomes operationally critical,” he said.

“In our view, operators are going to need to become far more agile and far more comfortable exploring options dynamically, rather than relying on a single fixed supply structure. The businesses that cope best will be the ones with systems and visibility that allow them to pivot quickly as supply conditions change.”

Fresh produce sector faces cold-chain pressures

For fresh fruits and vegetables, maintaining product quality during disruptions is becoming one of the industry’s biggest operational challenges.

Mohammed Alrifai, CEO of NRTC Group, said the most significant pressure point lies in preserving logistics fluidity across increasingly complex supply routes.

“The most critical constraint today lies in end-to-end logistics fluidity, particularly port congestion, vessel schedule reliability, and inland distribution synchronization,” Alrifai said.

“While farm supply remains relatively resilient due to NRTC’s diversified sourcing across more than 50 countries, the pressure points are in transit predictability and cold-chain continuity.”

He noted that maintaining temperature integrity across disrupted routes has become increasingly difficult.

“Maintaining temperature integrity across extended or disrupted routes is increasingly the defining operational challenge,” he said.

Transit times for certain fresh produce categories have already increased by several days depending on origin and routing.

“Transit times have extended variably depending on origin and route, in some cases by several days,” Alrifai said.

“This has a direct impact on highly perishable categories such as berries, leafy greens and stone fruits, where shelf-life compression is more pronounced.”

To reduce losses, companies are relying on pre-conditioning at origin, dynamic rerouting strategies and prioritised customs clearance procedures.

However, executives acknowledge that the margin for error is becoming increasingly narrow.

Perishable foods receive priority

As pressure builds, companies are increasingly prioritising products based on perishability and consumer demand.

“Yes, prioritisation is driven by perishability, nutritional importance and demand elasticity,” Alrifai said.

“Highly perishable, high-turnover items are fast-tracked through air freight or optimised sea routes where feasible, while more durable produce provides buffer stability.”

These decisions are becoming increasingly data-driven as companies weigh transit risk against shelf life and market demand.

“Decisions are data-led, factoring in shelf life, transit risk and market demand to ensure both availability and minimal waste,” he said.

Industry executives say this approach has helped maintain supply continuity even as logistics networks become more strained.

Alternative routes help — but cannot fully replace existing capacity

One of the key questions facing the industry is whether alternative transport corridors can fully offset disruption in traditional shipping lanes.

Most executives say the answer is no, at least in the short term.

“I think the answer depends heavily on timeframe,” Tietz said.

“In the short term, the ability of alternative corridors to fully compensate is probably overstated.”

He pointed to the importance of infrastructure assets such as Jebel Ali.

“Red Sea and overland Saudi corridors, or ports like Fujairah absolutely help, but Jebel Ali is one of the largest and most deeply integrated ports in the world and replacing that kind of throughput and infrastructure is not something that happens quickly,” he said.

“You can reroute some volume, but it’s more like breathing through a straw than restoring normal circulation.”

Alrifai echoed similar concerns.

“Alternative sourcing and rerouting are essential tools, but they come with trade-offs,” he said.

“While they help maintain supply continuity, they can introduce variability in product specifications, longer transit times and higher costs.”

Maintaining freshness under such conditions requires tighter coordination across suppliers, logistics providers and cold-chain operators.

UAE food security remains strong despite risks

Despite current pressures, food industry leaders say the UAE remains among the best-positioned countries globally to manage prolonged supply disruptions.

Mohamed Itani, CEO of United Foods Company, noted that the UAE imports approximately 85 per cent to 90 per cent of its food requirements from international markets, leaving it exposed to maritime disruptions.

“The UAE remains heavily dependent on imported food products, with approximately 85 per cent to 90 per cent of total food consumption sourced internationally,” Itani said.

“A significant proportion of these imports move through Hormuz-linked maritime routes.”

Staple categories including edible oils, cereals, pulses, sugar and fresh vegetables are among the most exposed.

“Poultry, dairy, eggs, meat products and processed foods are also highly exposed because any disruption in shipping routes or freight movement creates ripple effects across the broader food ecosystem,” he said.

However, he stressed that the UAE’s diversified sourcing network provides a significant buffer.

“The UAE has built one of the world’s most diversified food sourcing networks, importing products from India, Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, Europe, the US, Southeast Asia, East Africa and the Black Sea region,” Itani said.

At the same time, he acknowledged that sourcing diversification does not eliminate concentration risk within shipping infrastructure.

“This reflects an important distinction: sourcing diversification alone does not eliminate concentration risk if critical logistics infrastructure remains dependent on a limited number of maritime corridors,” he said.

Freight costs and insurance pressures build

Executives say one of the clearest impacts of the disruption is rising logistics costs.

Under prolonged disruption scenarios, freight rates, insurance premiums and rerouting expenses all increase, creating inflationary pressure throughout the food supply chain.

“Freight costs rise sharply, insurance and war-risk premiums increase, rerouting congestion develops, and supply lead times become more volatile,” Itani said.

The impact often appears first in highly perishable categories before spreading across broader food segments.

“Perishable categories are typically affected first, while feed shortages can place additional pressure on livestock and poultry supply chains,” he said.

“Over time, inflation broadens across food categories, retail variety narrows, and strategic reserves face greater replenishment pressure.”

He added that disruptions are affecting more than just food products themselves.

“With this crisis, we understand even the packaging materials and raw materials are playing a significant role apart from the food security challenges on hand,” he said.

A structural shift in food supply thinking

Beyond the immediate disruption, industry leaders believe the crisis may trigger lasting changes in how governments and businesses approach food security.

“Yes, I think so. I think we’re witnessing the beginning of a long-term shift in thinking about food routes, food sovereignty and procurement psychology,” Tietz said.

Part of that shift will involve building greater routing resilience through diversified logistics corridors.

“Routes and corridors will be diversified to reduce dependency on a single chokepoint,” he said.

“The pathways products travel will likely become more diversified over time.”

Food sovereignty is also expected to receive greater attention.

“Events like this force governments and regional leadership to confront how dependent the Gulf remains on imported food supply,” Tietz said.

He pointed to Qatar’s response during the regional blockade as an example.

“A good example from the Qatar blockade is the Baladna Dairy Project. Qatar responded by rapidly investing in local dairy supply capability, including the creation of Baladna, which flew thousands of dairy cattle into the country to establish domestic dairy production from scratch,” he said.

The final shift, executives say, will be behavioural.

“I think these events are changing procurement psychology permanently,” Tietz said.

“Operators are becoming less comfortable relying too heavily on one supplier, one route, or one system. Increasingly, resilience and optionality are becoming part of procurement strategy itself.”

For now, food continues to reach UAE shelves. But behind that continuity, industry leaders say a vast logistics network is absorbing growing pressure. As shipping routes face disruption, ports juggle congestion, and inland distribution networks stretch to accommodate new realities, the system is proving resilient, though not without cost.