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What does H2 2026 hold for gold prices?

The precious metal recorded more than 12 all-time highs during the first half of the year, peaking at a record $5,405/oz in late January before retreating sharply to a low

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

02 July, 2026

What does H2 2026 hold for gold prices?

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After a volatile opening half to the year, gold enters the second half of 2026 at a critical juncture, with performance increasingly shaped by shifting geopolitical risks, evolving interest rate expectations, and changing investor positioning dynamics, according to the Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 released by the World Gold Council.

The precious metal recorded more than 12 all-time highs during the first half of the year, peaking at a record $5,405/oz in late January before retreating sharply to a low of $4,002/oz in June. The swing resulted in a 7 per cent year-to-date decline and a rise in average volatility to 30 per cent. Despite the correction, gold remains among the strongest-performing major asset classes over the past year, underpinned by sustained structural demand.

Volatile first half driven by geopolitics and positioning

Elevated geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, emerged as the dominant driver of gold’s performance in the first half of 2026. According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), price action was also influenced by momentum-driven investor positioning and subsequent profit-taking as markets reacted to shifting macro expectations.

Read more-Dubai Gold District launched: What buyers, retailers need to know

The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold presented a mixed influence, as investors recalibrated expectations around interest rates and US dollar strength. Trading patterns also highlighted a structural shift in global liquidity flows, with a significant proportion of gold’s price discovery occurring during Asian and US trading hours, underscoring the growing influence of Asian investors in global bullion markets.

Macroeconomic signals shape the outlook

Looking ahead, the World Gold Council indicates that gold is likely to remain a key barometer of global macroeconomic conditions. Unlike assets driven primarily by domestic fundamentals, gold reflects a synthesis of global demand from consumers, institutional investors, and central banks.

At current levels, the gold price broadly aligns with consensus macro assumptions. These include expectations of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, likely by October, alongside parallel tightening cycles from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank. Inflation in the United States is projected to peak near 3.9 per cent in the second quarter.

Under these conditions, the World Gold Council suggests gold may trade within a narrow range of approximately ±5 per cent around $4,100/oz through the end of the year, assuming macroeconomic stability persists.

Scenario risks: Upside and downside pressures

The outlook for gold remains highly sensitive to changes in macro and geopolitical conditions. A deterioration in global growth or renewed escalation in geopolitical risk could reignite upward momentum. However, the World Gold Council notes that a sustained breakout above $4,500/oz would likely require a pronounced global economic slowdown or a significant shift in interest rate expectations.

On the downside, stronger-than-expected US dollar performance, tighter monetary policy than currently priced in, and renewed risk-on sentiment across equity markets represent key headwinds. A sustained break below $4,000/oz could trigger additional downside pressure. However, historical patterns suggest that declines of more than 10% from current levels tend to attract renewed physical and institutional demand across multiple regions, reinforcing gold’s longer-term support base.

Juan Carlos Artigas, regional CEO, Americas and global head of Research at the World Gold Council, commented:

“The gold market has made something clear this year: it is a genuinely global asset. The gold price reflects macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics around the world, not just in the US, which is part of what makes it such a valuable lens for investors. Rates matter, and we expect them to be a key variable in the second half. But gold’s performance is not driven by a single factor. Gold has come under pressure near US$4,000/oz this year and previously rebounded, supported by organic demand from long-term buyers across multiple geographies. That structural demand from central banks, institutional investors, and consumers worldwide is what underpins gold’s resilience.”

Precious metals under pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty

Broader precious metals markets have remained under pressure as renewed US-Iran tensions add to inflationary concerns. Both gold and silver declined by 1–2 per cent in the previous session, reflecting heightened volatility across commodities.

In intraday trading, gold briefly slipped below the $4,000 level before recovering, while silver traded near $59. Market sentiment has been influenced by conflicting diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran regarding potential negotiations. The US indicated that discussions with Iran are scheduled to begin in Doha, while Iranian officials signalled limited engagement, stating that only a delegation of experts would be sent and ruling out direct talks.

At the same time, a stronger US dollar, supported by a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, has added pressure on precious metals. Policymakers have indicated willingness to tighten monetary conditions further in response to persistent inflationary pressures. Upcoming US labour data, particularly non-farm payrolls (NFP), are expected to play a key role in shaping near-term policy expectations. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce a restrictive policy bias and weigh further on bullion prices.

Investor flows have also weakened, with holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds declining to their lowest levels since September. According to market participants, recent outflows have intensified bearish sentiment. Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, noted that the previous week alone saw ETF outflows of $4.39bn, equivalent to 36 tonnes, highlighting sustained institutional de-risking.

Technical landscape: Key levels in focus

From a technical perspective, gold has broken below its descending channel, signalling near-term weakness and increased sensitivity to key resistance levels. Immediate resistance is seen between $4,070 and $4,100, a zone reinforced by the 200-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart.

A failed retest of this range could present renewed downside pressure, with potential targets near the $4,000 level. Conversely, a sustained breakout above US$4,100 would shift focus toward the $4,200–$4,250 range, where additional resistance aligns with the 20-day exponential moving average. On the downside, support is expected around $3,930, followed by $3,880.

For silver, resistance is projected in the $61–$62 range, a zone also reinforced by the 50-period EMA on the four-hour chart. A retest of this resistance band may attract selling pressure, with downside targets near $56. Support is expected around $55–$56, consistent with last week’s lows, according to Valecha.

Oman signs $400m Sohar logistics terminal agreement

The planned logistics terminal in Sohar will provide advanced integrated logistics services and supply chain solutions while supporting new regional and international trade corridors

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

02 July, 2026

Oman signs $400m Sohar logistics terminal agreement
Image: Getty Images/Image for illustrative purpose

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Asyad Group and France-based CMA CGM Group have signed a framework agreement to develop, manage and operate a $400m multipurpose logistics terminal in Sohar, strengthening Oman’s position as a regional trade and logistics hub.

The agreement was signed during the official visit of His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik to France, reflecting the growing economic cooperation between the two countries.

The long-term partnership combines the capabilities of Asyad, Oman’s integrated logistics provider, and CMA CGM, one of the world’s largest shipping and logistics companies, to enhance Oman’s port infrastructure, improve operational efficiency and strengthen connectivity with international shipping networks.

The planned logistics terminal in Sohar will provide advanced integrated logistics services and supply chain solutions while supporting new regional and international trade corridors, increasing cargo handling volumes and reinforcing Oman’s role in global trade.

Eng. Abdulrahman Al Hatmi, group CEO of Asyad Group, said: “This partnership reflects Asyad Group’s vision of building strategic collaborations with major global companies to enhance the commercial attractiveness of Omani ports and maximise the economic value of their assets. This cooperation will open new horizons for attracting trade flows and quality investments to ports, free and economic zones, while strengthening Oman’s position in global supply chains.”

Rodolphe Saadé, chairman and CEO of CMA CGM Group, said: “This partnership with Asyad Group marks an important step in the development of our logistics and port activities in the Gulf. By developing a new logistics terminal at Sohar, we will strengthen regional connectivity while securing reliable inland access to key trade corridors. It will ensure greater resilience and efficiency for our customers’ supply chains. It also reflects our confidence in Oman’s long-term vision and our commitment to strengthening its position as a strategic gateway connecting the Gulf to global markets.”

The project forms part of Asyad’s strategy to expand Oman’s logistics ecosystem, which spans more than 76 cities across 24 countries and is supported by a fleet of more than 100 vessels serving over 90 destinations and connecting more than 200 commercial ports worldwide.

For CMA CGM, the investment strengthens its presence in the Gulf as the world’s third-largest container shipping company continues to expand its integrated sea, land, air and logistics network. The group currently operates more than 700 vessels, serves over 420 ports across five continents and manages interests in 65 port terminals globally.

What is happening in Dubai’s high-end apartment market? A closer look at Dhs10m+ market

The market remains narrow by transaction count, but important by value, reveals Ali Shahin, founder of The Real Estate Reports

Ali Shahin
Ali Shahin

01 July, 2026

What is happening in Dubai’s high-end apartment market? A closer look at Dhs10m+ market
Image: Getty Images

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Dubai’s high-end apartment market has changed significantly over the past decade, with flats priced above Dhs10m growing from a small high-end segment into a much larger contributor to residential transaction value.

The Real Estate Reports data covering flat sales from 2016 to 24 June 2026 shows that Dhs10m+ flat transactions increased from 71 deals worth Dhs1.22bn in 2016 to 2,003 deals worth Dhs44.04bn in 2025. In 2026, the segment recorded 726 transactions worth Dhs17.81bn up to 24 June.

The market remains narrow by transaction count, but important by value. In 2025, Dhs10m+ flats represented only 1.21 per cent of all flat transactions in Dubai, but accounted for 13.66 per cent of total flat sales value. In 2026 to date, they represented 1.16 per cent of transactions and 14.45 per cent of value.

The first-half comparison shows a more nuanced picture. Activity in 2026 is below the same period in 2025 by transaction count and total value, but pricing is stronger. Dhs10m+ flat sales fell from 868 transactions in H1 2025 to 726 transactions in 2026 to date, while value declined from Dhs18.88bn to Dhs17.81bn. However, the segment’s share of total flat value increased, and the average price per square foot rose sharply.

Off-plan sales have been the dominant force behind the segment’s growth. In 2016, off-plan Dhs10m+ flat sales stood at Dhs968.6m, representing 79.11 per cent of the segment’s value. By 2025, off-plan value had risen to Dhs35.79bn, or 81.25 per cent of Dhs10m+ flat sales. In 2026 to date, the off-plan share increased further to 83.94 per cent.

This does not mean the ready market disappeared. Ready Dhs10m+ flat sales rose from Dhs255.8m in 2016 to Dhs8.26bn in 2025. But the data shows that the largest part of the value growth has come from off-plan sales, particularly in branded, waterfront, and high-positioning projects.

The geography of the market has also changed. Earlier activity was heavily concentrated in Burj Khalifa and Palm Jumeirah. In 2016, Burj Khalifa accounted for 53.08 per cent of Dhs10m+ flat value, while Palm Jumeirah contributed 25.72 per cent. By 2022, Palm Jumeirah alone represented 66.75 per cent of the segment.

From 2023 onward, the market became more distributed. Palm Jumeirah remained a leading location, but its share fell to 37.33 per cent in 2023, 19.49 per cent in 2024, 16.91 per cent in 2025, and 21.06 per cent in 2026 to date. Other areas, including Business Bay, Burj Khalifa, Dubai Marina, Dubai Water Canal, Jumeirah First, and Jumeirah Second, became more visible at the top end of the apartment market.

The depth of the market also increased above the Dhs10m threshold. The Dhs10m-Dhs20m band remains the largest by transaction count, but higher price bands have become more meaningful. In 2025, Dhs20m-Dhs50m flats accounted for Dhs16.36bn, while Dhs50m+ transactions reached Dhs10.11bn. In 2026 to date, Dhs50m+ flat sales have already reached Dhs5.70bn.

One of the most important shifts is pricing. The average Dhs10m+ flat size fell from 5,517 sq ft in 2016 to 4,202 sq ft in 2026 to date. The median size fell from 5,253 sq ft to 3,230 sq ft. Over the same period, the weighted average price per square foot rose from Dhs3,126 to Dhs5,839.

This shows that growth has not simply been driven by larger apartments. Buyers are paying significantly more per square foot for high-end flats, reflecting stronger project positioning, prime locations, and demand for higher-end residential products.

At the very top of the market, the largest recorded transaction in the dataset was a Dhs550m off-plan sale at Bugatti Residences by Binghatti in Business Bay in December 2025. Other major deals included Dhs500m at Como Residences on Palm Jumeirah in December 2023 and Dhs422m at Aman Residences Dubai in Jumeirah Second in March 2026.

The data points to a market that is deeper, more expensive, and more project-led than it was a decade ago. While 2026 has so far recorded fewer Dhs10m+ flat transactions than the same period in 2025, pricing remains firm, off-plan sales remain resilient, and the segment continues to account for a significant share of Dubai’s total flat transaction value.

The next phase will depend on how selective buyers become as more high-end projects move through the development cycle. For now, Dubai’s Dhs10m+ apartment market is no longer only about isolated trophy penthouses. It is a broader high-value segment shaped by branded projects, prime locations, and sustained demand for luxury vertical living.

World Bank to phase out China lending by 2031

The World Bank’s board will review the plan during the week of July 20, although no formal vote is needed, one of the sources said.

Reuters
Reuters

01 July, 2026

World Bank to phase out China lending by 2031

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The World Bank will phase out its lending to China by 2031 after years of declining loans, reflecting the country’s rise to become the world’s second-largest economy, three sources familiar with the plan said on Tuesday.

The World Bank’s board will review the plan during the week of July 20, although no formal vote is needed, one of the sources said. It was agreed by the World Bank and China as part of its five-year “country partnership framework.”

The change, first reported by the Financial Times, would limit the multilateral development bank’s lending to Beijing to $2 billion between now and 2031, ending it thereafter.

World Bank lending to China has declined steadily, dropping from $2.4bn a year in 2017 to $750m in 2025. China exited eligibility for loans under the World Bank’s International Development Association facility for the poorest countries in 2000. It began contributing to the facility in 2007 and is now the fifth-biggest donor.

“China has made significant development advances over the past several decades,” said one World Bank official familiar with the matter. “Now we are reaching a new phase of our relationship, reflecting that reality.”

The US and other countries have long pushed the World Bank to stop lending to China, given its growing economic power. China’s continued borrowing from the World Bank and other institutions has been an irritant for the Trump administration since its first term.

The World Bank this month agreed to a similar change for Poland, ending development loans to the country after 2031.

A US Treasury spokesperson called the move “a step in the right direction” and said Washington looked forward to other institutions following suit.

“As the second-largest economy in the world, China should not be receiving handouts from multilateral institutions,” the spokesperson said.

A senior US official said China should not be eligible for development funding given the size of its economy, and called for assistance for China from other institutions such as the Asian Development Bank, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and UN agencies to end as well.

China’s finance ministry said on Wednesday that the gradual decline in World Bank loans to China is a natural result of changes in domestic demand and the transformation of cooperation between the two sides, and is in line with international practices.

China will continue to strengthen cooperation with the World Bank in addressing global challenges, the finance ministry said in its statement.

Dubai airport forecasts busiest travel day in July: What passengers must know

Transfer passengers are expected to represent around 50 per cent of total travellers, reinforcing Dubai’s position as one of the world’s leading international aviation hubs

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

01 July, 2026

Dubai airport forecasts busiest travel day in July: What passengers must know

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Dubai International (DXB) is preparing for a high-demand summer travel period, with nearly 3 million guests expected to pass through its terminals during the first half of July. The seasonal surge begins on July 2 as residents depart for holiday destinations, marking one of the busiest periods for the airport.

Drawing inspiration from Dubai’s spirit of exploration and global connectivity, the airport’s “I Heart DXB” experience at Terminal 3, Concourse B (near Gates B28), highlights the city’s role as a meeting point for travellers from around the world, reflecting the legacy of explorers such as Ibn Battuta, a WAM report said.

Passenger traffic expected to exceed 200,000 daily

The busiest day is forecast for July 12, when passenger numbers are expected to surpass 225,000. During the peak period, daily traffic is projected to consistently exceed 200,000 guests.

Read more-UAE reopens Lebanon travel, Emirates issues advisory: Key details to know

Transfer passengers are expected to represent around 50 per cent of total travellers, reinforcing Dubai’s position as one of the world’s leading international aviation hubs.

Interactive experience connects travellers with Dubai

Through the I Heart DXB installation, departing and transit passengers can upload a selfie to become part of a growing digital portrait of Dubai displayed in the colours of the UAE flag.

The installation continues to expand with every traveller passing through DXB, while a handwritten message wall captures personal notes of appreciation and memories, adding a human element to the airport experience.

The initiative also offers participating passengers access to rewards at selected airport retailers, including souvenirs and exclusive offers.

Saudi Arabia extends expat work permit deadline until 2026: Key details for employers

The revised timeline also covers workers who were not issued work permits within six months of joining an establishment

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

01 July, 2026

Saudi Arabia extends expat work permit deadline until 2026: Key details for employers

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Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development has extended the grace period for employers to rectify the status of expatriate workers with expired work permits until the end of 2026.

The extension applies to workers whose permits have been expired for more than 12 months, allowing businesses additional time to complete the required legal procedures and ensure compliance with labor regulations.

Read more-Saudi Arabia extends tax penalty waiver until December 2026: Key details revealed

The revised timeline also covers workers who were not issued work permits within six months of joining an establishment, according to a report published by Saudi Gazette.

Ministry focuses on market stability and legal compliance

The ministry said the decision is part of its continued efforts to improve adherence to labor laws, safeguard the rights of both employers and employees, and support businesses in completing necessary administrative processes.

“The extension reflects the ministry’s commitment to enhancing compliance across the labor market and providing establishments and workers with sufficient time to regularize their status,” the ministry said.

The move follows positive responses from several establishments and workers that have already taken steps to resolve outstanding work permit issues.

The ministry encouraged employers to renew or issue work permits before the revised deadline, warning that failure to complete the required procedures by the end of 2026 could lead to the implementation of applicable legal measures.

Qiwa rules continue to apply for expired permits

The announcement comes shortly after the Qiwa platform stated that workers with expired work permits would begin being automatically removed from employers’ records starting July 1 if their permits had remained expired for more than three months.

Under Qiwa regulations, employers remain responsible for outstanding financial obligations linked to workers employed without valid permits, even after records are removed from company files.

Qiwa has advised employers to clear pending work permit fees and complete required procedures, including renewals or worker service transfers where applicable, to avoid potential legal consequences and financial penalties.

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