A surge in high-precision bets on geopolitical events—particularly those linked to recent US-Iran developments—has placed prediction markets like Polymarket under intense scrutiny, with growing concerns that some trades may be informed by more than just market sentiment.

According to Business Insider, analysts and researchers have described these trades as “anomalous,” with some estimates suggesting over $140m in profits tied to potentially “informed” activity across the platform in recent years.

What makes the recent activity notable is not just the scale of the bets, but their timing. In several cases, positions were reportedly taken minutes or hours before major policy announcements, prompting comparisons with traditional insider trading behaviour.

According to Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, the financial industry relies on well-established statistical benchmarks to distinguish normal market activity from potentially suspicious patterns. These include metrics such as abnormal returns, cumulative abnormal returns, and trading volume ratios.

“The financial industry relies on four core metrics… If the Abnormal Return (AR)… crosses roughly 2.5 per cent, it typically starts to raise a flag,” he explains. “Once those gains add up to more than 5 per cent, it tends to signal that the move may not just be random market noise.”

By those standards, the March 2026 trading patterns appear highly unusual. Valecha points out that “just 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement on peace talks, the volume in crude oil futures was almost 10 times the average… alongside more than $2bn in S&P 500 futures notional value.”

In prediction markets, the signals were equally striking. One trader reportedly achieved a 93 per cent success rate on Iran-related bets tied to military developments—an outcome that sits well outside normal probability expectations.

“Each signal on its own might be explainable,” Valecha notes. “But taken together, they form a pattern that sits well beyond what standard statistical market surveillance benchmarks are designed to capture.”

Trading the signal, not the event

Beyond the question of timing, a deeper shift is underway in how prediction markets operate. Increasingly, traders are not just betting on events themselves, but on the communication patterns that precede them, particularly political messaging.

Valecha highlights how platforms like Polymarket have expanded into pricing behavioural signals, including how frequently political leaders post on social media.

“Prediction markets have already crossed a new frontier,” he says. “Platforms like Polymarket now run weekly bets on how many times President Trump will post on Truth Social, treating his communication habits as a tradable asset.”

This evolution reflects a broader trend where language, tone, and timing of political communication, especially via platforms like Truth Social, are increasingly influencing market positioning.

In some cases, traders have been observed pre-positioning ahead of major announcements, using data from previous bets and communication patterns to gain an informational edge. This has effectively blurred the line between market sentiment and predictive intelligence.

“The clarity of a clear line in the sand between the President’s Truth Social account and prediction markets is fading,” Valecha adds, pointing to a Bloomberg report that Trump Media is exploring the integration of its own prediction market capabilities.

Transparency without accountability

One of the defining characteristics of platforms like Polymarket is their reliance on blockchain infrastructure, which theoretically offers full transaction transparency. However, this transparency does not necessarily translate into enforceability.

Valecha explains that while transactions are visible, the identities behind them often are not.

“Even though Polymarket runs on blockchain infrastructure, it is difficult to identify potential insider trading because the trader’s nature… is unknown,” he says. “The only way to trace ownership would be through legal proceedings or cooperation with exchanges.”

This creates a paradox: while every transaction is permanently recorded and timestamped, proving intent—particularly the use of material nonpublic information—remains extremely challenging.

“On-chain transparency is good for audit, but not for detection,” Valecha notes. “If someone is suspected of insider trading, then their transactions can be traced… but insider trading requires proving that someone acted on material nonpublic information, which on-chain data does not show.”

The speed of these markets further complicates enforcement. Unlike traditional financial systems, where settlement delays can allow regulators time to intervene, blockchain-based platforms enable near-instant execution and resolution of trades.

A regulatory grey zone

The regulatory landscape surrounding prediction markets remains fragmented, particularly when comparing platforms like Polymarket with regulated counterparts such as Kalshi.

Valecha describes the current environment as a “regulatory grey zone,” where existing insider trading laws only partially apply.

“These laws were originally made for stock markets… but prediction markets are different,” he explains. “They are based on events like elections, wars, or policy decisions which don’t fit neatly into those rules.”

On regulated platforms like Kalshi, contracts are treated as financial derivatives and fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, meaning the use of non-public information can still trigger enforcement.

However, offshore platforms like Polymarket operate with fewer reporting obligations and often rely on crypto wallets, making user identification significantly more difficult.

“Because of this, enforcement is inconsistent across countries,” Valecha says. “Prediction markets, especially offshore ones, don’t have a clear system to define or enforce [insider trading].”

Insider trading or something else?

Distinguishing between insider trading, coordinated market activity, and legitimate hedging strategies is another challenge facing regulators.

According to Valecha, the observable data across these scenarios can appear almost identical, making intent the key differentiator, yet also the hardest factor to prove.

“It is hard to distinguish between these strategies as the inherent observable data remains the same,” he explains.

He outlines three broad categories of behaviour:

• Insider trading, typically characterised by “perfect timing before major events” and consistent abnormal profits
• Coordinated “whale” activity, where large players move markets through significant positions
• Legitimate hedging, where investors offset exposure elsewhere and may not generate net profits

However, the anonymity enabled by blockchain infrastructure complicates attribution.

“Platforms like Polymarket have lower KYC requirements and allow participation via crypto wallets… making it difficult for regulators to link any activity to specific individuals,” Valecha says.

A new frontier for financial markets

The convergence of prediction markets, social media signals, and geopolitical events is creating a new category of financial activity: one that sits somewhere between derivatives trading, behavioural analytics, and speculative forecasting.

While the technology underpinning these platforms offers unprecedented transparency, the absence of unified regulation raises critical questions about market integrity and investor protection.

As Valecha suggests, the issue is not just about whether unusual trades indicate insider knowledge, but whether the current system is equipped to answer that question at all.

The growing controversy has now pushed prediction markets into a regulatory spotlight. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have moved to tighten insider trading rules, introduce new surveillance measures, and restrict participation from individuals who could influence outcomes. These steps come amid mounting pressure from regulators and lawmakers, with enforcement bodies signalling that insider trading in prediction markets will be actively pursued and scrutinised more aggressively going forward, AP News stated.

For now, prediction markets remain a powerful but imperfect tool, offering real-time insights into collective expectations, while simultaneously exposing the limits of existing financial oversight frameworks.

The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to its Iranian community, describing it as a valued and integral part of the nation’s social fabric.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, the Ministry said the UAE remains home to more than 200 nationalities, underscoring its long-standing position as a diverse and open society built on coexistence and tolerance.

The comments come in response to what the Ministry described as inaccurate media reports regarding the residency status of Iranian nationals in the country.

MoFA said such claims do not reflect the UAE’s institutional approach, which is governed by established procedures and legal frameworks designed to safeguard the safety and well-being of all residents.

“The UAE reassures residents that its institutional approach is guided by well-established procedures and frameworks that safeguard the safety and well-being of all members of society, without exception,” the statement said.

The Ministry emphasised that all residents are protected under the rule of law, with policies applied consistently regardless of nationality.

It added that the UAE remains committed to maintaining a safe and stable environment, while upholding the rights of all individuals living in the country.

The statement reinforces the UAE’s broader positioning as a global hub for expatriates, where diversity and inclusion remain central to its economic and social model.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering, setting the stage for what could become the largest stock market listing on record, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

A public listing at a potential valuation of more than $1.75 trillion would signal that space exploration has moved from speculative venture to a mainstream investment theme. SpaceX‘s growth has been driven by its reusable rockets and the Starlink satellite internet network.

The filing comes after SpaceX merged with Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI in a deal that valued the rocket company at $1 trillion and the developer of the Grok chatbot at $250 billion.

Musk, the world’s richest person, runs a sprawling business empire that spans electric vehicles at Tesla, space launch, satellite broadband, AI and social media.

“Investors could use a sum-of-the-parts analysis, but, like with Tesla, SpaceX’s valuation could very much fluctuate wildly based off how much the public believes in Musk’s vision,” said Angelo Bochanis, data and index associate at Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO-focused research and ETFs.

“So far, investors seem to be clamoring for any sort of exposure to SpaceX.”

SpaceX did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Largest IPO ever

The Starbase, Texas-headquartered firm could seek to raise more than $50 billion in the IPO, handily surpassing the 2019 flotation of Saudi Aramco, which remains the largest IPO on record.

A blockbuster SpaceX debut could jolt the IPO market back to life after years of subdued activity, with market participants expecting strong demand from both retail and institutional investors, some drawn by Musk’s brand and others seeking exposure to SpaceX‘s fast-growing space and satellite businesses.

SpaceX is the world’s most valuable privately held company, based on the valuation implied by its merger deal with xAI. The rocket startup was last valued at about $800 billion in a secondary share sale independently.

Several other high-profile startups, including ChatGPT maker OpenAI and rival Anthropic, are also said to be weighing large IPOs, setting up a broader test of investor appetite for new listings.

Many large startups have remained private for longer, tapping deep pools of capital in private markets, but a listing by a company such as SpaceX could encourage more of them to pursue public offerings.

Bloomberg News first reported on the confidential filing earlier on Wednesday.

‘Muskonomy’

A listing would deepen analyst and investor scrutiny of “Muskonomy” — the billionaire’s sprawling business empire and intertwined fortunes — bringing renewed focus to how his companies are financed, governed and valued across markets.

“A likely dual-class share structure would let Musk tap public capital while retaining firm control, even after the substantial dilution that comes with a public offering,” said Minmo Gahng, assistant professor of finance at Cornell University.

He runs electric vehicle maker Tesla, brain-chip maker Neuralink and tunnel-digging firm The Boring Company.

Musk also folded social media platform X into xAI through a share swap last year, giving the AI startup access to the platform’s data and distribution network.

Questions about Musk’s ability to oversee multiple companies with market values exceeding $1 trillion could temper investor enthusiasm, analysts say.

“It is understandable that investors would be concerned with Musk overseeing multiple significant enterprises, especially given his polarizing public profile at times. However, SpaceX appears somewhat differentiated,” said Kat Liu, vice president at ‍IPOX.

“The business is operationally mature, technologically ahead in several key areas, and profitable, which provides a solid fundamental underpinning.”

Space race

The move comes as NASA is set to launch four astronauts as soon as Wednesday evening on a 10-day flight around the moon, marking the most ambitious US space mission in decades.

SpaceX generated about $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue last year, Reuters reported in January, citing people familiar with the matter.

A growing number of billionaires and private firms have bankrolled a fresh space race in the US, investing heavily in rockets, satellite networks and lunar ambitions, including SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

As NASA leans more on commercial partners and defense budgets climb, space is emerging as a strategic battleground shaped by technological edge, national security priorities and the promise of new economic gains.

SpaceX has also sought permission to launch up to 1 million solar‑powered satellites engineered as orbital data centers, far beyond anything currently deployed or proposed.

NASA engineers and technologists have speculated for nearly two decades about moving energy‑hungry computing off the planet.

SpaceX‘s merger with xAI has drawn investor attention to how Musk could use a tightly integrated network of rockets, satellites and AI systems to overcome technical and capital hurdles, extending artificial intelligence infrastructure beyond Earth.

Artificial intelligence has become Wall Street’s favorite theme, with anything tied to AI helping fuel a powerful rally in technology stocks and lifting valuations across the sector.

Indian fuel retailers raised jet fuel and commercial liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices on Wednesday, following a sharp spike in global prices due to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

India, the world’s second-largest LPG importer, is battling its worst gas crisis in decades, with the government cutting supplies for industries to shield households from cooking gas shortages.

Domestic fuel retailers have raised prices of aviation turbine fuel by 8.6 to 104,927 rupees per kiloliter and commercial LPG by 10.4 per cent to 2,078.50 rupees per 19-kilogramme cylinder in New Delhi, the Indian Oil Corporation’s website showed.

Read more-Ryanair warns fuel disruption could hit summer flights

In order to insulate domestic travel costs from the substantial increase in international prices, state-owned oil marketing companies, in consultation with the Ministry of Civil Aviation, have passed only a “partial and staggered increase” to airlines, the ministry said in a post on social media.

The price increase in commercial cylinders is due to a 44 per cent surge in the Middle Eastern benchmark Saudi Contract Price, as 20 per cent to 30 per cent of global LPG supplies are stuck in Strait of Hormuz, the ministry said.

The country consumed 33.15 million metric tonnes of LPG, or cooking gas, last year, with imports accounting for about 60 per cent of the total. About 90 per cent of those imports came from the Middle East.

The consumption of commercial cylinders, used by industries and hotels, is less than 10 per cent of the total LPG consumed in the country and the prices are revised on a monthly basis, the ministry said.

The 14.2-kg domestic gas cylinder prices have been kept unchanged to protect domestic customers from the price surge, the ministry added.

To tackle the LPG crisis, India has increased domestic daily LPG production by 40 per cent to 50,000 metric tons against a requirement of 80,000 tonnes and Indian companies have secured 800,000 tonnes of LPG cargoes from the US, Russia, Australia and other countries.

US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran has requested a ceasefire, tying any potential agreement to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in remarks posted on Truth Social.

But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said claims by Trump that Tehran had requested a ceasefire are “false and baseless,” according to Iranian state TV.

In a post published on Wednesday, Trump said Iran’s leadership had approached Washington seeking a ceasefire, adding that the US would only consider such a move once the key shipping route is “open, free, and clear”.

Trump claimed that Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, had made the overture.

Trump wrote: “Iran’s New Regime President, much less radicalised and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!”

TEarlier in the conflict, on March 7, Pezeshkian said Iran’s temporary leadership council had approved a suspension of attacks against neighbouring countries unless Iran itself was targeted. The comments were widely interpreted as a potential de-escalation signal.

Read more: Iran’s president says his country will suspend strikes on GCC neighbours

However, strikes continued in the hours and days that followed. And Iranian officials walked back his comments.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s latest claim is likely to be treated with caution.

Strait of Hormuz

The status of Hormuz remains central to any potential breakthrough. The waterway is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and disruptions in recent weeks have significantly impacted shipping flows and market sentiment.

Earlier this week, Gulf Business reported that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill, with 181 vessels recorded passing through the waterway between March 1 and March 30, 2026.

Read more: Hormuz traffic collapse: 181 ships recorded in March, majority Iranian-linked

This is according to data provided to Gulf Business by Lloyd’s List.

The data indicates that, on average, fewer than 10 ships per day were recorded passing through the strait — a dramatic drop from around 138 daily transits recorded on February 28, according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre.

Prior to the escalation, roughly 3,000 vessels would typically pass through the strait each month, according to the BBC.

Lloyd’s List data further shows that of the 181 vessels that transited the strait in March, 125 — nearly 70 per cent — had Iranian links, while just 56 did not. Of these, 130 vessels were eastbound and 51 westbound, reflecting a heavily restricted and uneven flow.