US emergency oil reserve hits 1982 low as Hormuz risks keep crude elevated
America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 293.4mn barrels as Washington draws down emergency stocks
19 August, 2026
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America’s emergency oil stockpile has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 44 years, leaving Washington with a sharply thinner buffer as the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices elevated.
Stocks in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped by about 5.3mn barrels in the week ending August 14 to 293.4mn barrels, according to Department of Energy data, the lowest level since December 1982.
The 293.4mn-barrel level remained the latest official reading available on Wednesday, August 19, ahead of the US Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly petroleum report due later in the day.
The decline marks a dramatic reversal from earlier this year. The reserve held 415.4mn barrels on March 20, meaning stocks have fallen by roughly 122mn barrels, or about 29 per cent, since then.
Washington authorised the release of 172mn barrels from the SPR in March as part of a wider International Energy Agency (IEA) initiative to make 400mn barrels of oil and refined products available from emergency reserves following severe disruption to global energy supplies.
The 122mn-barrel reduction in SPR holdings since March 20 is equivalent to around 71 per cent of the volume authorised for release, although the change in overall inventories should not be read as a direct measure of how much of the programme has been delivered.
At its latest level, the SPR holds the equivalent of about 41 per cent of its 714mn-barrel authorised storage capacity.
Much of the emergency programme has been structured through exchanges, under which energy companies borrow crude from the reserve and return barrels at a later date, along with additional oil as a premium.
‘Oil market remains gripped by geopolitics’
The depletion of the US emergency reserve comes as geopolitical tensions continue to put upward pressure on crude.
Benchmark Brent crude futures climbed to $91.47 a barrel by 0754 GMT on Wednesday, while US West Texas Intermediate rose to $85.39 a barrel, with both benchmarks reaching their highest levels since late July.
Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, said the political stand-off between Washington and Tehran continued to underpin prices.
“The oil market remains gripped by geopolitics,” he said.
“The diplomatic gridlock and the power games between the United States and Iran create some uncertainty, which manifests itself in a risk premium embedded in oil prices.”
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, while uncertainty persists over how and when normal traffic through the strategic waterway will resume.
Before the conflict, Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Yet Rücker said the underlying physical oil market was showing signs of greater resilience than many had expected.
“Global and US inventories are holding up much better than many had feared only a short time ago,” he said.
Softer demand could be one explanation, he added, while significant quantities of crude also appear to be continuing to move through Hormuz despite the risks.
“The supply shock looks more benign, and pragmatism will very likely support oil flows out of the Middle East going forward,” Rücker said.
‘Hormuz is leaking lots of oil’
One of the biggest uncertainties remains the amount of crude actually moving through the strait.
Rücker said conventional vessel-tracking data could be understating flows because smaller ships are moving through the waterway without transmitting normal tracking signals.
“The shuttling of oil in smaller vessels through Hormuz in dark mode challenges the established ship tracking methods using transponder signals or satellite images,” he said.
His assessment was succinct: “Hormuz is leaking lots of oil.”
Asian buyers, particularly China and India, also appeared more willing to continue sourcing Middle Eastern crude despite the increased shipping risks, he said.
“Pragmatism and opportunism prevail against the shipping risks,” Rücker said.
The apparent resilience of oil flows helps explain why global inventories have not deteriorated as dramatically as some market participants initially feared.
US commercial crude inventories, which exclude the SPR, surged by 17.4mn barrels to 424.4mn barrels in the week ending August 7, their largest weekly increase since January 2023.
Preliminary American Petroleum Institute data released on Tuesday showed crude stocks falling by just 328,000 barrels in the week ending August 14.
Official EIA inventory figures are due later on Wednesday, with analysts expecting commercial crude stocks to have fallen by about 600,000 barrels.
Strategic releases running behind pledges
Rücker also pointed to the pace at which countries have deployed emergency reserves.
“Releases from strategic storage are roughly half the levels to date from the initially pledged volumes back in March,” he said.
That potentially leaves governments with additional barrels still available if supply conditions worsen.
“Amidst this fog, the stability of global inventory levels and the recent uptrend in US petroleum inventories offer some comfort,” Rücker said.
Julius Baer remains cautious on the outlook for crude prices despite the geopolitical risk premium.
“With the supply shock looking more benign and pragmatism likely supporting oil flows out of the Middle East going forward, we stick to our cautious view and short position,” Rücker said.
The bank expects oil prices to fall into the $70s later this year and into the $60s next year.
Could WTI fall back to $80?
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, said on Tuesday that crude prices were continuing to receive support from signs that the confrontation between Washington and Tehran could persist.
“From a fundamental standpoint, WTI has been grinding their way higher in recent sessions, as the US signals that the showdown with Iran is set to run,” Valecha said.
“The two sides remain far apart on a host of issues, including Hormuz.”
However, Valecha said WTI was approaching an important technical resistance level around $87 a barrel.
“On the 4-hour timeframe, a clear bearish RSI divergence is also visible,” he said.
Valecha said a failure to break through $87 could open the way for WTI to retreat towards $80, while a sustained move above that level could push the benchmark towards $90.
“However, a break above $87 can target $90,” he said.
The EIA, meanwhile, expects Brent to average around $85 a barrel during the third quarter, before easing to approximately $78 in the fourth quarter as traffic through Hormuz increases and disrupted production starts returning.
It forecasts Brent averaging $69 a barrel in 2027.
The agency nevertheless expects global oil inventories to decline by an average of 3.8mn barrels per day in the third quarter, highlighting the continuing uncertainty surrounding Middle East supplies.



















