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IMF slashes 2025 Saudi Arabia growth forecast on extended oil production cuts

The fund said it expected energy commodity prices to decline by 2.6 per cent in 2025, more than assumed in October

Reuters
Reuters

20 January, 2025

IMF slashes 2025 Saudi Arabia growth forecast on extended oil production cuts
Image credit: FAYEZ NURELDINE/ Getty Images

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The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2025 GDP growth projection for Saudi Arabia to 3.3 per cent, mainly due to extended oil production cuts, it said on Friday in the latest update to its global outlook.

It also trimmed its 2024 growth estimate for the Gulf state to 1.4 per cent.

In its October Regional Economic Outlook report, the IMF had estimated growth would accelerate to 4.6 per cent this year from a projected 1.5 per cent in 2024.

The cut to Saudi Arabia’s GDP forecast led to an overall lowering of the IMF’s growth projection for the Middle East and Central Asia region to 3.6 per cent this year. That was down from its October forecast of 3.9 per cent.

“In the Middle East and Central Asia, growth is projected to pick up, but less than expected in October,” the IMF said in Friday’s update.

“This mainly reflects a 1.3 percentage point downward revision to 2025 growth in Saudi Arabia, mostly driven by the extension of OPEC+ production cuts.”

Most analysts expected economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, to pick up sharply in 2025 on higher oil output after two years of modest growth. An October Reuters poll forecast the Saudi economy would expand 4.4 per cent in 2025, while the Saudi government projects 2025 growth at 4.6 per cent.

However, in December, the OPEC+ nations, which include Saudi Arabia, pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April, and further extended the full unwinding of cuts due to weak demand and rising production outside the group.

Declining oil prices and extended cuts to oil production have weighed on Saudi Arabia’s revenue in recent years, but Riyadh is pushing ahead with a spending plan to boost non-oil growth and deliver on its economic transformation plan.

The IMF said it expected energy commodity prices to decline by 2.6 per cent in 2025, more than assumed in October.

Read: Saudi Arabia approves 2025 state budget, forecasts $27bn deficit

Insights: Key compliance trends in the Middle East

We look at how companies can navigate the compliance landscape in the Middle East

Ben Cockram
Ben Cockram

20 January, 2025

Insights: Key compliance trends in the Middle East
Image: Supplied

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The Middle East’s compliance landscape is undergoing significant transformation, influenced by geopolitical shifts, economic realignments, and technological advancements. For chief compliance officers (CCOs) and businesses operating in this dynamic environment, understanding and adapting to these evolving trends is crucial.

The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape has always been complex, but recent crises are reshaping the region in ways that are sure to keep CCOs awake at night.

Such upheavals create cascading risks for businesses operating in or trading with the region. Disrupted supply chains are an immediate concern; for instance, intensified conflict zones or border restrictions could delay shipments, increase costs, and disrupt operations. For sectors like energy and logistics, where the Middle East serves as a vital hub, these disruptions could ripple globally.

Further complicating matters, the anticipated return of stringent US sanctions — potentially targeting entities with links to Iran or Syria — will require heightened vigilance in know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) practices. As new alliances form and old ones dissolve, ensuring accurate due diligence will be critical. Businesses must not only identify sanctioned entities but also map out complex ownership structures to avoid secondary exposure. In 2024 alone, over 25 per cent of financial institutions reported increased compliance costs tied to enhanced KYC requirements, according to Thomson Reuters.

While geopolitical tensions present challenges, China’s continued economic slowdown may offer unexpected opportunities for the Middle East. As Beijing’s economy grapples with structural weaknesses and declining global demand, its investments and energy imports are likely to scale back. This deceleration could reduce the region’s dependence on China as one of its primary trading partners, encouraging Gulf states to diversify their economic alliances further westward.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, is well-positioned to capitalise on this pivot. With the Middle East increasingly marketed as a stable and attractive destination for foreign direct investment, the region is poised to absorb capital flows redirected from East Asia.

In 2022, Saudi Arabia alone attracted $20.7bn in foreign direct investment — a 337 per cent increase from 2016 —underscoring the region’s growing appeal to global investors.

This shift is also driving significant growth in sectors like clean energy, logistics, and financial services, as Middle Eastern nations continue the work to diversify their economies. For compliance teams, this diversification introduces new challenges, including navigating unfamiliar regulatory landscapes and managing the risks associated with multi-jurisdictional operations.

The Middle East is witnessing an influx of hedge funds, family offices, and private equity firms registering at ADGM or the DIFC, drawn by the region’s economic prospects and relative stability. This trend introduces sophisticated financial instruments and complex investment structures, elevating the importance of robust compliance mechanisms to mitigate risks such as money laundering and fraud.

Concurrently, the region’s relatively lenient stance on cryptocurrencies has positioned it as a haven for digital asset enterprises. The exit of major crypto platforms like Binance from the US market, due to stringent regulations, underscores this shift. However, the absence of rigorous oversight in the Middle East could expose businesses to financial crimes and regulatory scrutiny from other jurisdictions, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive internal compliance protocols.

Enhancing compliance frameworks: Key focus areas

1. Trade sanctions and export controls: The reimplementation of US sanctions demands meticulous compliance strategies. Businesses must establish robust screening processes to ensure transactions do not involve sanctioned entities, thereby averting severe penalties.

2. Anti-bribery and corruption (ABC): Aligning with global standards, Saudi Arabia has intensified its anti-corruption efforts, mirroring the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). This alignment necessitates that companies operating in the kingdom implement stringent ABC policies and training programmes to ensure adherence to both local and international regulations.

3. Investigations and due diligence: The intricate geopolitical landscape requires comprehensive due diligence to identify potential risks in business partnerships. Proactive internal investigations are essential to detect and address compliance issues promptly, thereby safeguarding organisational integrity.

4. Data privacy and cybersecurity: The enactment of data protection laws, such as Saudi Arabia’s Personal Data Protection Law (PDPL), signifies a regional shift towards stringent data governance. Organisations must invest in robust data management systems and cybersecurity measures to comply with these regulations and protect against cyber threats.

The talent imperative in compliance

The evolving compliance landscape underscores the critical need for skilled professionals adept at navigating complex regulatory environments. However, the Middle East faces a significant talent shortage in this domain.

According to Mercer’s 2024 Global Talent Trends Study, 50 per cent of regional HR professionals identify skills shortages as a top threat to their businesses. This scarcity is particularly acute in specialised areas such as compliance and governance, often necessitating the relocation of qualified professionals from global markets to fill the gap.

Predictions for the compliance landscape in 2025

  • Integration of artificial intelligence (AI): A study by PwC predicts that by 2025, 70 per cent of businesses in the Middle East will incorporate AI into their compliance programs, significantly altering the way companies approach data protection and regulatory adherence.
  • Emphasis on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors: Global trends indicate a shift from voluntary to mandatory ESG disclosures. Middle Eastern businesses are expected to align with this movement, necessitating the integration of ESG considerations into compliance frameworks.
  • Enhanced cybersecurity measures: Cybersecurity has become a critical focus with the increasing digitisation of business operations. Nearly half of the organisations in the Middle East have dedicated resilience teams in place, reflecting a proactive approach to safeguarding economic growth and innovation.

For businesses operating in the region, staying abreast of these trends and proactively adapting compliance strategies is essential.

Investing in skilled compliance professionals and leveraging advanced technologies will be pivotal in navigating the complexities of 2025 and beyond.

The writer is the MD, In-House Counsel Recruiting at Major, Lindsey & Africa.

Read: The path to sustainable business through ESG compliance

DIB bumps up stake in Türkiye’s T.O.M. Group to 25%

The group includes TOM Katılım Bankası – Türkiye’s first licensed digital retail bank; TOM Pay Elektronik Para ve Ödeme Hizmetleri and TOM Finansman

Kudakwashe Muzoriwa
Kudakwashe Muzoriwa

20 January, 2025

DIB bumps up stake in Türkiye’s T.O.M. Group to 25%
Image credit: Tom Dulat/ Getty Images

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Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) said on Monday that it had increased its shareholding in T.O.M. Group to 25 per cent, following its initial acquisition of a 20 per cent stake in the digital bank in September 2023.

The group includes TOM Katılım Bankası – Türkiye’s first licensed digital retail bank; TOM Pay Elektronik Para ve Ödeme Hizmetleri – a licensed e-money company; and TOM Finansman – a licenced financing company specialised in developing innovative digital products.

Türkiye continues to be a pivotal market for DIB, given its sizeable population, rapidly expanding digital infrastructure and impressive economic growth trajectory.

“This decision comes on the back of a market-beating performance and incredible take-up of the recently launched digital bank,” said Dr Adnan Chilwan, group CEO of DIB.

“The increased shareholding not only solidifies DIB’s position as a key stakeholder in Türkiye’s thriving digital banking sector but also underscores our deep-rooted belief in the country’s strategic intent around tech-based economic development.”

Founded in 1975, DIB’s nine-month profit rose by 13 per cent year-on-year to $1.48bn (Dhs5.44bn) while revenues rose by 6.3 per cent YoY to reach Dhs9.1bn compared to Dhs8.5bn for the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said last July that banks in the GCC region are strongly interested in expanding their presence in major regional markets, particularly Turkey, Egypt, and India, driven by improved economic conditions and growth opportunities in target markets.

ADQ, the smallest of Abu Dhabi’s three sovereign wealth funds, agreed to acquire 96 per cent shareholding in Turkish lender Odeabank from Lebanon’s Bank Audi. Under the deal, Bank Audi and other investors, including the International Finance Corporation, IFC FIG Investment Company Sàrl, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, will sell their stakes in Odeabank to ADQ.

Read: GCC banks show robust interest in global expansion, Fitch says

Photos: Emirates passenger teams get uniform ‘makeover’

The airline’s team has come out with a brand new uniform

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

18 January, 2025

Photos: Emirates passenger teams get uniform ‘makeover’
Image credit: Emirates Website

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The Premium & VIP Passenger Services team at Emirates has a new look.

The team, responsible for the transfer of premium individuals through the Dubai International Airport (DXB), has showcased an all-together new and fabulously chic ensemble, as part of their new work regalia.

What does their ‘NEW MODISH’ uniform look like

The new uniform has been designed by the in-house Emirates standard team and comprises of:

For the ladies

  • A-line skirt suit for ladies
  • Another stylish pantsuit for ladies

For the gentleman

  • A tailored 3-piece suit for the men

Colour of the uniform

The ward sand color of the voguish uniform symbolises the desert dunes of the UAE, with red collars and matching cuffs for ladies.

The skirt is accentuated by a stylish red pleat for the ambassadors to walk comfortably, with a red leather belt at the waist, adding a polished touch to the entire look.

The wonderful look is topped with the iconic Emirates hat and the gold pin showcasing the Emirates logo and the exquisite chiffon scarf, representative of the Emirati culture.

The look in its entirety is put together by the red leather shoes as well as the handbag.

The dapper male ambassadors of the Premium & VIP Passenger Services team would also be seen flaunting tailor-made jackets, pants, and waistcoats all accented with red pocket squares and muted ties.

Work profile for the Emirates Premium & VIP Passenger Services team

The prime focus of the team involves

  • Pickups
  • Drop-off’s
  • Airport check-ins
  • Connections and arrival formalities, all for the VIP passengers passing through the Dubai International Airport. This is to ensure a safe and smooth passage of the passengers through the airport, within the significant time constraints.

(With inputs from Emirates media centre)

AD Ports Group, KazMorTransFlot to expand Caspian Sea operations

The partnership includes expanding the tanker fleet for crude oil transportation, further strengthening Kazakhstan’s energy sector and deepening the collaboration between AD Ports Group and KMTF

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

17 January, 2025

AD Ports Group, KazMorTransFlot to expand Caspian Sea operations
Image: Supplied

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Noatum Maritime, the maritime and shipping arm of AD Ports Group, has signed a heads of terms agreement with Kazakhstan National Shipping Company – KazMorTransFlot (KMTF), a subsidiary of KazMunayGas, the Kazakh National Oil Company, to expand operations in the Caspian Sea region.

The collaboration aims to bolster Kazakhstan’s shipping and logistics capabilities by focusing on the construction of two new container vessels.

Each vessel, designed specifically for the Caspian Sea, will feature a capacity exceeding 500 TEUs.

These vessels, which will be larger than existing vessels in the region, are expected to enhance operational efficiency with advanced cargo handling systems and improve scheduling and turnaround times.

Noatum Maritime-KazMorTransFlot agreement highlights

The agreement also outlines plans to develop a new trans-Caspian Sea intermodal system. This initiative will involve high-capacity ferries and the development of the corresponding terminal infrastructure, drastically reducing transit times for Kazakh exporters and other stakeholders along the Middle Corridor.

In addition, the partnership includes expanding the tanker fleet for crude oil transportation, further strengthening Kazakhstan’s energy sector and deepening the collaboration between AD Ports Group and KMTF.

Captain Ammar Al Shaiba, CEO of the Maritime & Shipping Cluster at AD Ports Group, highlighted the strategic importance of the partnership, saying, “We remain deeply committed towards our vision of facilitating international trade by enhancing and expanding our collaboration with our valued partners in Kazakhstan. Together we have achieved much success in the Caspian region, underscoring the strength of our partnership. This agreement not only solidifies our bond but also paves the way for new opportunities and shared growth.”

Aidar Orzanhov, director general of KazMorTransFlot, echoed these sentiments, stating, “We are proud to strengthen our collaboration with AD Ports Group, a trusted partner that shares our vision for advancing trade and logistics in the Caspian Sea region. Together we are creating new opportunities that will benefit not only our organisations but also the wider economy.”

The agreement builds on the foundation of the joint venture formed in 2022, Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions (CIMS), which has played a key role in providing integrated offshore solutions and shipping services in the Caspian Sea region.

This latest step signals a continued commitment by both parties to enhance maritime connectivity and trade within the Caspian Sea, further aligning Kazakhstan’s growing energy and logistics sectors with global supply chains.

Etihad Rail debuts carbon emission avoidance, reduction certificates

The company’s operations are projected to reduce CO2 emissions from the UAE’s road transport sector by 21 per cent annually by 2050

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

17 January, 2025

Etihad Rail debuts carbon emission avoidance, reduction certificates
Image credit: Etihad Rail/ Supplied

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UAE’s Etihad Rail has debuted the region’s first-ever “CO2 Emission Avoidance and Reduction Certificates,” an innovative initiative that highlights the environmental benefits of rail transport for its customers.

The certificates – powered by EcoTransIT, a globally recognised tool for assessing the environmental impact of transport – quantify and validate the carbon savings businesses achieve by choosing rail over alternative transport modes, directly contributing to the UAE’s decarbonisation goals.

The developer and operator of the UAE’s railway network said the certificates calculate CO2 Equivalents (CO2e) by factoring in direct emissions from diesel and indirect emissions from biofuels.

The process includes Well-to-Wheel (WTW) analysis, which covers the full lifecycle of fuel use – from extraction to combustion – ensuring an accurate measurement of the environmental impact of each tonne-km transported.

“The initiative empowers businesses to take active roles in reducing their carbon footprint while leveraging the unparalleled efficiency and reliability of rail transport. By aligning with the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategy and the UAE Climate Change law, we are driving transformative change in the logistics sector, building a more sustainable future for the UAE and the region,” said Omar Alsebeyi, executive director of Commercial & Performance of Etihad Rail.

Etihad Rail plans to transport 60 million tonnes of cargo annually by 2030, contributing to the UAE’s economic diversification, enhancing supply chain resilience, and contributing to its climate targets.

The firm’s operations are projected to reduce CO2 emissions from the UAE’s road transport sector by 21 per cent annually by 2050, taking up to 300 trucks off the roads for every train journey.

Last September, Etihad Rail Freight, a unit of Etihad Rail, signed a haulage services deal with Trojan General Contracting to provide seamless, end-to-end transportation and logistics solutions.

Etihad Rail will transport aggregates from Trojan’s quarries in Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah to the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi and Dubai Industrial City. It will provide comprehensive logistics solutions, including first- and last-mile services, via its Al Ghail Dry Port rail terminal.

Earlier in September, Noatum Group, a subsidiary of AD Ports Group, launched its new rail logistics solution for the Middle East region.

The shuttle service, provided by Etihad Rail, aims to add significant capacity to the regional logistics network and offer customers the option of transporting large volumes of overland freight.

Read: Etihad Rail, Trojan General Contracting seal haulage services deal

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