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Gold prices surge again: Will the trend continue?

The US central bank held interest rates steady in its last meeting

Reuters
Reuters

04 March, 2025

Gold prices surge again: Will the trend continue?
Image credit: Getty Images

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Gold prices extended gains on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven demand as trade conflicts erupted after US President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on top three trading partners of the world’s biggest economy.

Spot gold rose by 0.8 per cent to $2,917.61 an ounce by 0939 GMT, up for a second straight session. Bullion has gained 10 per cent so far this year and hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24.

Read-Gold price rises: Here’s what it means for traders

US gold futures rose by about 1 per cent to $2,928.90.

Trump’s new 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect at 0501 GMT. He also doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20 per cent. China hit back immediately with additional tariffs of 10-15 per cent on certain US imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated US entities.

“With Trump 2.0 delivering exactly the chaos he promised in the US election, Western investors are joining emerging-market central banks in buying gold as an all-weather hedge,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.

Traders now await the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory.

“Any indication of a slowdown in the US economy would support calls for more Fed rate cuts and support the gold price. We continue to look gold to re-test the highs over the coming weeks,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

The US central bank held interest rates steady in its last meeting. It is expected to resume cutting rates in June and could reduce short-term borrowing costs again in September.

J.P.Morgan said it expects gold close to $3,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Bitcoin falters as optimism wanes on Trump’s crypto reserve plan

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, rose 2.4 per cent from Friday’s levels, to $86,292, but was down 8 per cent from Sunday.

Reuters
Reuters

04 March, 2025

Bitcoin falters as optimism wanes on Trump’s crypto reserve plan
Image credit: Getty Images

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Bitcoin backpedaled on Monday after an early rise following US President Donald Trump’s weekend proposal for a national strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies.

Optimism on digital currency after Trump’s Sunday post on Truth Social turned to caution as market participants awaited more details about this crypto initiative.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, rose 2.4 per cent from Friday’s levels, to $86,292, but was down 8 per cent from Sunday.

Trump’s executive order

Trump said his January executive order on digital assets would create a stockpile of currencies, including bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana and Cardano. The names had not previously been announced.

Read-Bitcoin jumps, shares cling to hopes for tariff relief

Bitcoin and ether will be at the heart of this reserve, he said in a post on Sunday that sent bitcoin up by a fifth from the November lows. The token has been sliding since mid-January due to disappointment Trump had not followed through on pledges to loosen regulation.

Ether was down 4.3 per cent from Friday’s level, at $2,127.10, but sank nearly 16 per cent from Sunday.

XRP tumbled more than 15 per cent from Sunday’s levels to $2.48, but surged 25 per cent from Friday. Solana also weakened, down 16 per cent from Sunday to $148.89, but was up 1.6 per cent from Friday.

Cardano sank 19 per cent from Sunday to $0.8940, and fell 3 per cent from Friday.

Anthony Pompliano, founder and chief executive officer at Professional Capital Management, and one of the biggest crypto investors, said in a letter to his clients on Monday that he was not in favor of a strategic crypto reserve.

“Even though Solana is our second largest crypto position, and various public equities I hold are heavily correlated to altcoins, I still think this decision on a wide-ranging crypto strategic reserve is an unforced error that will be regretted in the future,” Pompliano said in a letter to investors.

He warned that the emerging policy appeared to be “a random smattering of speculative tools that will enrich the insiders and creators of these coins at the expense of the US taxpayer.”

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who run the Gemini crypto exchange, said on X, formerly known as Twitter, also expressed concern about the reserve. They noted that only bitcoin meets the bar for a store of value as a reserve asset, but were not sure about the other cryptocurrencies.

Trump’s strategic reserve: A positive sign for the crypto industry

Still, Trump’s promise of a strategic reserve has generated excitement for the crypto industry, which has languished in recent weeks.

Bitcoin fell more than 17 per cent in February, its biggest monthly percentage fall since June 2022. It lost more than a third of its price since topping $105,000 in early January.

Its rally since Trump’s November election was spurred by optimism that he would champion a strategic bitcoin fund and end former President Joe Biden’s crackdown.

“Ironically, a currency that was designed to be isolated from government interference and decentralized, is now reliant on the US government for its fortunes,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, reiterating that the $100,000 level was an “obvious target” for bitcoin.

Beyond a flurry of appointments of crypto-friendly officials when Trump took office, there has been little concrete news so far around that policy for investors.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote that the Trump announcement has raised concerns.

The funding for cryptocurrency purchases in the reserve could come from US taxpayers. But alternatively, they could come from cryptocurrencies seized in law enforcement actions, he said, which “isn’t anywhere near as bullish as it simply represents a transfer between accounts rather than new buying entering the market.”

Trump hits Canada, Mexico, China with steep tariffs

The tariff actions, which could upend nearly $2.2 trillion in two-way annual US trade went live at 12:01am EST (0501 GMT)

Reuters
Reuters

04 March, 2025

Trump hits Canada, Mexico, China with steep tariffs
Image credit: Getty Images

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US President Donald Trump’s new 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20 per cent, launching new trade conflicts with the top three US trading partners.

The tariff actions, which could upend nearly $2.2 trillion in two-way annual US trade went live at 12:01am EST (0501 GMT).

Read: Trump’s tariffs and implications for Middle East businesses

China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing additional tariffs of 10 per cent-15 per cent on certain US imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated US entities.

Canada and Mexico, which have enjoyed a virtually tariff-free trading relationship with the US for three decades, were poised to immediately retaliate against their longtime ally.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25 per cent tariffs on C$30bn ($20.7bn) worth of US imports, and another C$125bn ($86.2bn) if Trump’s tariffs were still in place in 21 days.

“Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship,” Trudeau said, adding that they would violate the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement signed by Trump during his first term.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford told NBC that he was ready to cut off shipments of nickel and transmission of electricity from his province to the US in retaliation.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was expected to announce her response during a morning news conference in Mexico City on Tuesday, the country’s economy ministry said.

Stacking China Tariffs

The extra 10 per cent duty on Chinese goods adds to a 10 per cent tariff imposed by Trump on February 4. The cumulative 20 per cent duty also comes on top of tariffs of up to 25 per cent imposed by Trump during his first term on some $370bn worth of US imports.

Some of these products saw US tariffs increase sharply under former president Joe Biden last year, including a doubling of duties on Chinese semiconductors to 50 per cent and a quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to over 100 per cent.

The 20 per cent tariff will apply to several major US consumer electronics imports from China previously untouched by prior duties, including smartphones, laptops, videogame consoles, smartwatches and speakers and Bluetooth devices.

China’s new tariffs announced on Tuesday targeted a wide range of US agricultural products including certain meats, grains, cotton, fruit, vegetables and dairy products.

It also added 15 US entities to its export control list and 10 US entities to its unreliable entity list.

The state-backed Global Times newspaper said on Monday Beijing’s retaliation would most likely target US agricultural and food products.

US farmers were hard hit by Trump’s first-term trade wars, which cost them about $27bn in lost export sales and conceded share of the Chinese market to Brazil.

Recession fears

The tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products could have much deeper repercussions for a highly integrated North American economy that depends on cross-border shipments to build cars and machinery, refine energy and process agricultural goods.

“Today’s reckless decision by the US administration is forcing Canada and the US toward recessions, job losses and economic disaster,” Canadian Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing said in a statement.

She said the US tariffs will fail to usher in a “golden age” coveted by Trump but instead raise costs for consumers and producers and disrupt supply chains. “Tariffs are a tax on the American people.”

Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council representing Detroit automakers, called for vehicles that meet the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement’s regional content requirements to be exempted from the tariffs.

Even before Trump’s tariffs announcement, US data on Monday showed factory gate prices jumped to a nearly three-year high, suggesting that a new wave of tariffs could soon undercut production.

Trump’s confirmation that the tariffs would proceed sent financial markets reeling with global stocks tumbling and safe-haven bonds rallying. Both the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell against the greenback.

Piling on

Trump has maintained a blistering pace of tariff actions since taking office in January, including fully restored 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that take effect March 12, rescinding prior exemptions.

Trump’s “America First” agenda, aimed at redrawing trade relationships in favor of the US, is expected to be a centerpiece of his Tuesday night address to a joint session of Congress.

Trump on Saturday opened a national security investigation into imports of lumber and wood products that could result in steep tariffs. Canada, already facing 14.5 per cent US tariffs on softwood lumber, would be hit particularly hard.

A week earlier, Trump revived a probe into countries that levy digital services taxes, proposed fees of up to $1.5m on every Chinese-built ship entering a US port and launched a tariff investigation into copper imports.

These add to his plans for higher “reciprocal tariffs” to match the levies of other countries and offset their other trade barriers, a move that could hit the European Union hard.

Al-Futtaim Family Office invests in China’s BYD as automaker raises $5.59bn

The UAE’s Al-Futtaim Family Office is a key investor in the share sale, and the two firms are planning on forming a strategic partnership, according to BYD

Reuters
Reuters

04 March, 2025

Al-Futtaim Family Office invests in China’s BYD as automaker raises $5.59bn

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Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD said on Tuesday it had raised $5.59bn in a primary share sale that was increased in size, making it the largest of its kind in Hong Kong in four years.

The company said it sold 129.8 million primary shares in the deal, up from the original 118 million shares planned when the deal launched on Monday.

BYD’s Hong Kong shares opened down 8 per cent on Tuesday, in line with the discount the stock was sold at in the deal, while the Hang Seng Index was off 1.5 per cent.

BYD said the transaction was the largest equity follow-on offering globally in the automotive sector in the past decade.

The United Arab Emirates-based Al-Futtaim Family Office was a key investor in the share sale, and the two firms were planning on forming a strategic partnership, BYD said. It did not say how much the family had invested.

Most Chinese automakers have eyed the Middle East to grow their overseas sales in recent years.

Leveraging its competitive lineup of affordable battery-powered vehicles, BYD has emerged rapidly to be China’s largest automaker since 2022.

Over 90 per cent of BYD’s total sales of 4 million cars in 2024 were in China, where it accounted for more than a third of the total sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrids in the world’s largest auto market.

BYD sold the shares at HK$335.20 ($43.11) each, a 7.8% discount to the stock’s closing price of HK$363.6 on Monday.

The shares were marketed in a price range of HK$333 to HK$345 per share each in the accelerated book build.

BYD’s share sale is the largest of its kind in Hong Kong since 2021, when Meituan raised $6.9 billion, according to LSEG data.

The deal reflects increasingly positive sentiment in Hong Kong and China, especially in the tech sector following a high level summit of tech executives led by Chinese President Xi Jinping. China policymakers have also signalled a higher level of support for the country’s business private sector.

BYD’s Hong Kong shares have risen 36.38 per cent so far this year while its Shenzhen-listed listed stock has rallied 27.4 per cent on the back of the improved tech sector sentiment.

The company plans to use the proceeds to invest in research and development, expand overseas businesses, supplement working capital, and for general purposes.

The automaker has been accelerating its expansion to add production facilities and is hiring more workers as it targets to sell 5 million to 6 million cars in 2025, on par with General Motors and Stellantis globally. BYD said it had nearly 1 million employees as of early September, more than Toyota and Volkswagen each had.

BYD in February launched 21 models of electric and plug-in hybrid models cars priced from $9,555 to be equipped with its God’s Eye smart driving system to stay competitive at home.

It has also been ramping up export efforts, with Brazil its largest overseas market in 2024. In Europe, the automaker has launched new hybrid models as its EVs face an additional 17 per cent tariff in the region.

A Citigroup analysis said BYD raising the money offshore in Hong Kong would allow the company to expedite its international business plans.

“BYD has a lot of free cash flow and net cash domestically in China, but it’s not flexible and costs a lot to transmit the RMB from China into the currency outside China,” Citi analyst Jeff Chung wrote in a research note.

ADNOC, OMV to establish $60bn global polyolefins entity

Borouge Group International will be jointly controlled as an equal partnership between ADNOC  and OMV, with OMV injecting EUR1.6bn cash into the consolidated entity to equalise shareholding

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

04 March, 2025

ADNOC, OMV to establish $60bn global polyolefins entity
Image: ADNOC

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The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Austria’s OMV have agreed to merge their holdings in Borouge and Borealis, forming Borouge Group International, which will acquire North American polyethylene producer Nova Chemicals Corporation for $13.4bn, including debt.

The deal will create a $60bn global polyolefins giant, making Borouge Group International the fourth-largest polyolefins producer by nameplate capacity, with 13.6 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) across Europe, the Middle East, and North America.

Strategic expansion and financial structure

ADNOC has signed a share purchase agreement with Mubadala Investment Company’s Nova Chemicals Holdings, acquiring 100 per cent of Nova Chemicals.

The acquisition, combined with the planned recontribution of Borouge-4—set for completion by end-2026 at a cost of $7.5bn — is expected to be a major catalyst for the new entity’s growth.th.

Borouge Group International will be headquartered in Austria, with regional hubs in the UAE, Canada, the US and Singapore.

The company plans a $4bn capital raise in 2026 to secure MSCI index inclusion and maintain an investment-grade credit rating, targeting net leverage of up to 2.5x EBITDA.

ADNOC and OMV will hold equal 46.94 per cent stakes in Borouge Group International, exercising joint control. The remaining 6.12 per cent will be in free float, subject to UAE regulatory approval and shareholder exchanges.

“These transformative transactions mark a pivotal milestone in ADNOC’s global chemicals strategy,” said Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC MD and group CEO. “We are creating a new industry powerhouse, solidifying Abu Dhabi’s status as a leader in the chemicals sector while driving value for shareholders.”

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Synergies, dividend policy, and growth prospects

Borouge Group International is expected to generate over $7bn in EBITDA annually, leveraging $500m in synergy potential, with 75 per cent realised within three years.

The company will maintain a 90 per cent dividend payout ratio, targeting a minimum annual payout of 16.2 fils per share, representing a 2 per cent increase over Borouge’s 2024 dividend per share (DPS).

OMV CEO Alfred Stern called the deal a “momentous step” in OMV’s chemicals strategy. “With ADNOC, we are building a global polyolefins leader, enhancing value creation, and accelerating our transition toward circular economy solutions,” he said.

Regulatory approvals and sustainability commitments

The transaction is expected to close in Q1 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.

Borouge Group International will focus on sustainability and circular solutions, building on initiatives from Borealis, Borouge, and Nova Chemicals.

Both Borealis and Borouge have committed to Scope 1 and 2 net-zero emissions before 2050, with Borouge Group International’s sustainability strategy to be announced post-completion.

ADNOC’s XRG to oversee chemicals strategy

Upon completion, ADNOC’s stake in Borouge Group International will be transferred to XRG, its global chemicals investment arm.

XRG aims to maximise value creation and leverage synergies across the group’s expanding international chemicals portfolio.

Read: ADNOC secures long-term LNG deal with Japan’s Osaka Gas

Emirates flies higher: 3 new destinations to be explored in Asia

The convenient flight schedules will offer travelers optimised connections and access to major European cities

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

03 March, 2025

Emirates flies higher: 3 new destinations to be explored in Asia
Image credit: Dubai Media Office/Website

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Emirates will launch its daily non-stop flights between Dubai and Shenzhen starting July 1, 2025.

According to a WAM report, this move aims to strengthen its presence across Asia.

In addition to flights to Shenzhen, Emirates will also introduce four weekly flights to Da Nang on June 2, and three weekly flights to Siem Reap starting June 3. Both cities will be connected via Bangkok.

Read-Emirates to resumes flights to Beirut, Baghdad

The addition of Shenzhen, Da Nang, and Siem Reap positions Emirates as a leader with the largest and most diversified route network among non-Asian airlines in East Asia, offering 269 flights per week from Dubai to 24 destinations.

This expansion marks Emirates’ fourth gateway into mainland China, its third destination in Vietnam, and its second point in Cambodia.

Flights to Da Nang will operate with the Emirates Boeing 777 on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays.

Optimised connections for passengers

The convenient flight schedules will offer travelers optimised connections and access to major European cities such as London, Paris, Amsterdam, Manchester, Milan, and Rome, as well as several US cities.

Flight Schedules

Da Nang

Emirates flight EK370 will depart from Dubai at 0900hrs and arrive in Bangkok at 1825hrs. The flight will then depart from Bangkok at 2010hrs and arrive in Da Nang at 2150hrs. The return flight EK371 will depart from Da Nang at 2330hrs and arrive in Bangkok at 0110hrs the following day. The flight will then take off at 0340hrs, arriving in Dubai at 0650hrs. All times are local.

Siem Reap

Emirates’ three weekly services to Siem Reap will operate on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. Emirates flight EK370 will depart from Dubai at 0900hrs and arrive in Bangkok at 1825hrs. The flight will then depart from Bangkok at 2010hrs and arrive in Siem Reap at 2130hrs. The return flight EK371 will depart from Siem Reap at 2350hrs and arrive in Bangkok at 0110hrs the following day. The flight will then take off at 0340hrs, arriving in Dubai at 0650hrs. All times are local.

Emirates’ flight to Siem Reap is timed to offer leisure travelers connectivity through multiple daily operations from France, the UK, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Russia.

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Gold prices surge again: Will the trend continue?