Commodities are entering 2026 from a position of relative strength, underpinned by robust structural drivers in precious and base metals, while recovery opportunities begin to emerge across energy and agriculture, according to Ninety One’s Natural Resources 2026 Outlook.

The active global investment manager, which oversees $215bn in assets, said tighter base-metal markets, evolving oil supply dynamics and an expected turn in grain balances are reshaping the natural resources sector, making selectivity increasingly critical for investors.

Gold and copper anchor the commodities outlook

Gold remains one of the most strongly supported assets entering 2026, buoyed by a softer US dollar, persistent geopolitical risk, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and sustained central-bank demand. Despite two years of strong performance, Ninety One believes the fundamental drivers behind gold’s rally remain firmly in place.

“Gold’s rally has been powerful, but it has also been grounded in fundamentals that are still very much in place. With real rates likely to fall and central banks continuing to diversify their reserves, we see more reason for gold to consolidate or edge higher than to sell off sharply,” said George Cheveley, natural resources portfolio manager.

For gold miners, higher prices have translated into a sharp improvement in profitability, with margins estimated to be four to five times higher than in 2024. Silver is also holding firm in its higher trading range, while platinum’s persistent supply deficit suggests higher prices may be required to unlock stockpiled material.

Among base metals, copper stands out as the tightest major market entering 2026. Supply disruptions, low inventories and rising demand from power infrastructure and data-centre development pushed prices to record highs in 2025, and those pressures remain intact.

“Copper is entering 2026 as the tightest of the major base metals. Supply disruptions have been widespread and inventories are low, while demand from power grids and data-centre infrastructure remains robust. Against that backdrop, we think copper-exposed equities still have an attractive risk-reward profile,” Cheveley said.

Aluminium has also benefited from copper’s strength as manufacturers seek substitutes, although capacity additions in Indonesia from 2027 could weigh on the medium-term outlook. Iron ore and coal are expected to trade sideways in 2026 as new supply comes on stream and China’s centralised buyer takes a more active role, even as long-term pricing assumptions appear conservative relative to costs and demand.

Read: Gold, silver hit record highs after Trump threatens tariffs on Europe over Greenland

Energy faces near-term pressure, medium-term opportunity

Oil markets enter 2026 under pressure, with incremental OPEC supply weighing on prices. Ninety One’s Natural Resources team is currently underweight energy, adopting a defensive stance in the near term.

Overall, we expect oil to find a bottom during the first half of 2026 and to recover later in the year as it becomes clear that both OPEC and US shale are operating near capacity. That could present an attractive entry point into oil-leveraged equities,” said Paul Gooden, natural resources portfolio manager.

Geopolitical developments, including recent US intervention in Venezuela, add further complexity. “The near-term implications are ambiguous, but the long-term implications for the oil price are negative as Venezuela has significant untapped reserves, although it would take several years to develop them. That said, the implications for energy equities are nuanced, with for example select oil services companies and US refiners potential beneficiaries,” Gooden noted.

Natural gas presents a clearer structural growth story. Demand continues to rise, driven by LNG export expansion along the US Gulf Coast and the surging power requirements of data centres.

“Within our energy holdings we have exposure towards companies that are positioned to benefit from this structural growth in gas volumes, and to companies where we are ‘paid to wait’ for the eventual recovery in oil prices,” Gooden added.

Grain markets set for a turning point

After record harvests led to oversupply in 2025, grain markets are expected to tighten as lower prices discourage planting, particularly on marginal land. Early indicators in the US suggest increased fallowing and a shift toward alternative crops.

“Low grain prices are already discouraging planting, particularly on marginal land. Early indications in the US point to more fallowing and a shift towards alternative crops. If that trend continues, we expect corn and soybean balances to tighten by the second half of 2026,” said Dawid Heyl, natural resources portfolio manager.

Demand from biofuels and livestock feed is also expected to strengthen. US biofuel targets imply higher ethanol production from 2025 to 2026, while strong livestock prices may encourage herd rebuilding, supporting feed-grain demand and improving conditions for select agricultural equities.

Active positioning remains key

Ninety One’s current positioning reflects divergent sector dynamics. The team is overweight precious metals, broadly at-weight base metals and bulks, and underweight energy and agriculture, while remaining ready to adjust as conditions evolve.

“An active and highly selective approach is essential in this environment. The headline story for a commodity can look positive, but the range of outcomes at company level is wide. We want to be very deliberate about where we take risk, and ready to adjust as the year unfolds,” Gooden concluded.

Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, Supreme Council Member and Ruler of Ras Al Khaimah, has issued Law No (1) of 2026 regulating the operation of autonomous vehicles in the emirate.

The law establishes a legal and technical framework governing the deployment of autonomous vehicles, with an emphasis on safety, security, data protection and the definition of responsibilities for operators and users, state news agency WAM reported.

Under the law, the Ras Al Khaimah Transport Authority (RAKTA) is designated as the regulator responsible for overseeing autonomous vehicle operations in the emirate.

Its mandate includes setting operational standards, ensuring data governance and cybersecurity compliance, and implementing digital monitoring and periodic reporting requirements, the WAM report said.

Read: A2RL’s Stephane Timpano on how UAE is a global hub for autonomous innovation

The law regulating autonomous vehicles is a strategic step, says RAKTA head

Engineer Esmaeel Hasan Al Blooshi, DG of RAKTA, said the law represents a strategic step to enhance road safety and support the safe integration of autonomous vehicles. He added that the framework covers operational regulation, cybersecurity, data governance and legal accountability, with the authority responsible for issuing further regulatory decisions to support implementation.

The legislation includes public safety requirements aimed at reducing human error, such as automatic transition to a safe mode if autonomous operation fails, connectivity with secure control centres, and the maintenance of transparent and traceable operational and incident records.

It also addresses cybersecurity and digital risks, sets obligations for operators, ensures accessibility of autonomous transport services for all segments of society, including People of Determination, and calls for public awareness initiatives to promote safe interaction with autonomous vehicles.

The law takes effect upon issuance and publication in the official gazette. RAKTA will oversee its enforcement and issue the necessary regulations to support a structured transition to autonomous mobility within the emirate.

In other news, RAKTA launched its Classic Taxi Service in December. The service also aims to offer tourists a nostalgic journey through time by providing an experience that reflects the traditional modes of transport used by earlier generations.

The United States has begun enforcing a sweeping suspension of immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries, marking one of the most extensive restrictions on legal migration pathways under the Trump administration.

The measure took effect on January 21 and applies to applications for permanent residency, including family-based and employment-based immigrant visas. The policy affects countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, including Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Thailand, Russia and Uruguay.

According to a statement from the US Department of State, the suspension is aimed at preventing immigrants deemed likely to become a “public charge” from entering the country. The administration has framed the move as part of its broader effort to ensure that immigrants are financially self-sufficient and do not rely on US government welfare programmes.

“President Trump has made clear that immigrants must be financially self-sufficient and not be a financial burden to Americans,” the State Department said, adding that the policy is designed to ensure that immigrants from what it described as high-risk countries do not utilise welfare benefits in the United States.

Scope and exceptions

The suspension applies to immigrant visa cases that have not yet reached the issuance stage. While applicants from the affected countries may still submit visa applications and attend interviews, their cases will not progress to visa issuance. If a visa has already been approved but has not been printed, consular officers have been instructed to refuse the application.

Existing visas held by nationals of the affected countries remain valid and are not impacted by the decision.

Limited exemptions apply. Dual nationals may proceed with immigrant visa applications if they apply using a valid passport from a country not on the list. Additional exceptions may be granted if an applicant can demonstrate that their travel serves an “America First” national interest, according to a State Department cable.

The list of affected countries spans multiple regions and includes US allies, emerging markets and conflict-affected states. Among them are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Sudan, Syria, Thailand and Yemen.

The full list also includes several Caribbean and Latin American nations, as well as countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, underlining the global scale of the restriction.

Duration unclear

The Trump administration has not specified an end date for the suspension, raising concerns among immigration lawyers, businesses and multinational employers that the measure could remain in place indefinitely.

For companies operating across borders, particularly those reliant on talent mobility, family reunification or long-term workforce planning, the move adds another layer of uncertainty to US immigration policy at a time of heightened geopolitical and economic tension.

The suspension represents one of the most far-reaching immigration actions since President Donald Trump returned to office, reinforcing the administration’s hardline stance on immigration and welfare-related eligibility.

Here is the full list:

1. Afghanistan

2. Albania

3. Algeria

4. Antigua and Barbuda

5. Armenia

6. Azerbaijan

7. Bahamas

8. Bangladesh

9. Barbados

10. Belarus

11. Belize

12. Bhutan

13. Bosnia and Herzegovina

14. Brazil

15. Myanmar

16. Cambodia

17. Cameroon

18. Cape Verde

19. Colombia

20. Côte d’Ivoire

21. Cuba

22. Democratic Republic of the Congo

23. Dominica

24. Egypt

25. Eritrea

26. Ethiopia

27. Fiji

28. The Gambia

29. Georgia

30. Ghana

31. Grenada

32. Guatemala

33. Guinea

34. Haiti

35. Iran

36. Iraq

37. Jamaica

38. Jordan

39. Kazakhstan

40. Kosovo

41. Kuwait

42. Kyrgyzstan

43. Laos

44. Lebanon

45. Liberia

46. Libya

47. North Macedonia

48. Moldova

49. Mongolia

50. Montenegro

51. Morocco

52. Nepal

53. Nicaragua

54. Nigeria

55. Pakistan

56. Republic of the Congo

57. Russia

58. Rwanda

59. St Kitts and Nevis

60. St Lucia

61. St Vincent and the Grenadines

62. Senegal

63. Sierra Leone

64. Somalia

65. South Sudan

66. Sudan

67. Syria

68. Tanzania

69. Thailand

70. Togo

71. Tunisia

72. Uganda

73. Uruguay

74. Uzbekistan

75. Yemen

As the Middle East’s gift card and incentive market accelerates toward $38bn by 2030, businesses across the UAE and Saudi Arabia are transforming how they reward employees and customers.

According to new data from Mordor Intelligence, the gift card and incentive card market in the GCC is valued at $24.9bn in 2025 and is growing at an 8.8 per cent compound annual growth rate, driven by corporate digitisation, rising e-commerce adoption and mobile-first payments.

Read more-The loyalty programme disconnect and how to fix it

Within this momentum, YOUGotaGift’s @Work platform enables companies large and small to purchase eGift Cards in bulk, personalise them with messages, add custom corporate logos and branding, and track transactions through a centralised dashboard, all without administrative setup or integration.

“With corporates, especially SMEs, making up more than 61 per cent of the Middle East gift card market, the sector is redefining how businesses appreciate and reward their people,” said Husain Makiya, co-founder and chief executive of YOUGotaGift. “SMEs are moving quickly from cash payouts to digital solutions because they demand simplicity, speed and accountability.”

SMEs drive market expansion

The study shows that corporate SMEs represent the fastest-growing segment, forecast to expand at 14.9 per cent annually through 2030. eGift Cards already account for 67 per cent of the regional market and are advancing at nearly 20 per cent CAGR, while online platforms command almost 80 per cent of total distribution.

This shift highlights a decisive move away from paper vouchers toward real-time, digital reward systems that offer transparency and operational efficiency.

Saudi Arabia leads the regional market with a 43.9 per cent revenue share, reflecting strong alignment with its cash-lite agenda, while the UAE continues to pioneer enterprise adoption through digital economy initiatives and integrated fintech ecosystems.

Efficiency, sustainability and scale

As companies accelerate digital transformation, YOUGotaGift’s @Work supports this transition by simplifying employee rewards and customer incentives. Each transaction eliminates paper and plastic waste, aligning corporate recognition programs with sustainability and governance priorities.

“Digital rewards are not just convenient; they are measurable and environmentally responsible,” Makiya added. “By replacing traditional procurement methods with instant digital rewarding, businesses across the GCC can enhance engagement while operating more efficiently.”

YOUGotaGift’s @Work is designed for organisations of all sizes, from SMEs to large enterprises. With no system integration required, businesses can reward employees, incentivise customers and issue payouts within minutes.

By combining local fintech innovation with enterprise-grade functionality, the platform reflects the region’s broader push for productivity, transparency and inclusion. Businesses across the UAE and Saudi Arabia are transforming how they reward employees and customers businesses.

The Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) has reported that its Lost and Found Team at the Call Centre, operating under the Customer Happiness Department, managed 104,162 reports of lost property in taxis across Dubai during 2025.

According to a WAM report, these reports were handled through a comprehensive, integrated process that ensures rapid response, accurate follow-up, and secure return of lost items to customers. The procedure includes verification of trip and driver details, meticulous documentation, and adherence to the highest standards of accuracy and reliability.

Meera Al Shaikh, director of Customer Happiness at the corporate administrative support services sector, highlighted the RTA’s commitment to placing customers at the heart of its services.

Read more-Heading to Dubai Airport Terminal 1? RTA opens newly expanded bridge

“These efforts align with RTA’s strategic mission to provide safe and seamless mobility by developing innovative and sustainable roads and transport systems. Our focus is on elevating the customer experience to global standards,” Al Shaikh said. “Customer happiness is a top priority, guiding initiatives that enhance understanding of customer needs, develop tailored services, and reinforce positive practices that support an efficient and sustainable mobility ecosystem.”

She added that the lost property framework relies on well-prepared specialised teams, close collaboration between the call centre, taxi operators, and drivers, and the use of smart technology to safeguard belongings while reinforcing trust in RTA services.

High-value recoveries

In 2025, the Lost and Found Team recovered cash exceeding Dhs2m, alongside around 35,000 electronic devices, including smartphones, laptops, and tablets. The team also returned approximately 3,000 passports and official documents, as well as jewellery and other valuable personal items.

Al Shaikh noted that the reporting process is designed for ease of access, with multiple communication channels available. The call centre handled 56 per cent of reports, while smart applications accounted for 10.8 per cent, and the text-based chat service with the virtual agent Mahboub managed 30.8 per cent. Services are offered in several languages, including Arabic, English, Hindi, Filipino, French, Chinese, and Russian, ensuring broad accessibility across Dubai’s diverse population.

RTA has implemented advanced systems to enhance search and follow-up operations, improving efficiency and reducing processing times. Smart channels have seen increased usage, reflecting a growing preference for digital solutions. These systems allow precise tracking of taxi movements, swift communication with drivers, and careful monitoring of each report through to resolution.

Clear procedures govern the handover of lost items, including verification of customer identity, privacy protection, and secure return in line with approved processes. The system ensures that customers are contacted within two hours in most cases, boosting overall satisfaction. In 2025, the call centre received over 30 messages of thanks from appreciative customers.

Promoting integrity among drivers

Positive contributions from taxi drivers were also noted, with many promptly handing in lost items. Several drivers were recognised for their honesty, reinforcing values of integrity and responsibility in the Emirate’s mobility sector.

The Lost and Found Team remains a crucial link between customers and service providers, demonstrating that customer happiness extends beyond the journey itself. By protecting belongings and fostering trust, RTA continues to strengthen smart services and enhance Dubai’s reputation as a global benchmark for transport excellence.