Commodities enter 2026 on firmer ground as investors turn selective
Gold remains one of the most strongly supported assets entering 2026
21 January, 2026
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Commodities are entering 2026 from a position of relative strength, underpinned by robust structural drivers in precious and base metals, while recovery opportunities begin to emerge across energy and agriculture, according to Ninety One’s Natural Resources 2026 Outlook.
The active global investment manager, which oversees $215bn in assets, said tighter base-metal markets, evolving oil supply dynamics and an expected turn in grain balances are reshaping the natural resources sector, making selectivity increasingly critical for investors.
Gold and copper anchor the commodities outlook
Gold remains one of the most strongly supported assets entering 2026, buoyed by a softer US dollar, persistent geopolitical risk, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and sustained central-bank demand. Despite two years of strong performance, Ninety One believes the fundamental drivers behind gold’s rally remain firmly in place.
“Gold’s rally has been powerful, but it has also been grounded in fundamentals that are still very much in place. With real rates likely to fall and central banks continuing to diversify their reserves, we see more reason for gold to consolidate or edge higher than to sell off sharply,” said George Cheveley, natural resources portfolio manager.
For gold miners, higher prices have translated into a sharp improvement in profitability, with margins estimated to be four to five times higher than in 2024. Silver is also holding firm in its higher trading range, while platinum’s persistent supply deficit suggests higher prices may be required to unlock stockpiled material.
Among base metals, copper stands out as the tightest major market entering 2026. Supply disruptions, low inventories and rising demand from power infrastructure and data-centre development pushed prices to record highs in 2025, and those pressures remain intact.
“Copper is entering 2026 as the tightest of the major base metals. Supply disruptions have been widespread and inventories are low, while demand from power grids and data-centre infrastructure remains robust. Against that backdrop, we think copper-exposed equities still have an attractive risk-reward profile,” Cheveley said.
Aluminium has also benefited from copper’s strength as manufacturers seek substitutes, although capacity additions in Indonesia from 2027 could weigh on the medium-term outlook. Iron ore and coal are expected to trade sideways in 2026 as new supply comes on stream and China’s centralised buyer takes a more active role, even as long-term pricing assumptions appear conservative relative to costs and demand.
Read: Gold, silver hit record highs after Trump threatens tariffs on Europe over Greenland
Energy faces near-term pressure, medium-term opportunity
Oil markets enter 2026 under pressure, with incremental OPEC supply weighing on prices. Ninety One’s Natural Resources team is currently underweight energy, adopting a defensive stance in the near term.
Overall, we expect oil to find a bottom during the first half of 2026 and to recover later in the year as it becomes clear that both OPEC and US shale are operating near capacity. That could present an attractive entry point into oil-leveraged equities,” said Paul Gooden, natural resources portfolio manager.
Geopolitical developments, including recent US intervention in Venezuela, add further complexity. “The near-term implications are ambiguous, but the long-term implications for the oil price are negative as Venezuela has significant untapped reserves, although it would take several years to develop them. That said, the implications for energy equities are nuanced, with for example select oil services companies and US refiners potential beneficiaries,” Gooden noted.
Natural gas presents a clearer structural growth story. Demand continues to rise, driven by LNG export expansion along the US Gulf Coast and the surging power requirements of data centres.
“Within our energy holdings we have exposure towards companies that are positioned to benefit from this structural growth in gas volumes, and to companies where we are ‘paid to wait’ for the eventual recovery in oil prices,” Gooden added.
Grain markets set for a turning point
After record harvests led to oversupply in 2025, grain markets are expected to tighten as lower prices discourage planting, particularly on marginal land. Early indicators in the US suggest increased fallowing and a shift toward alternative crops.
“Low grain prices are already discouraging planting, particularly on marginal land. Early indications in the US point to more fallowing and a shift towards alternative crops. If that trend continues, we expect corn and soybean balances to tighten by the second half of 2026,” said Dawid Heyl, natural resources portfolio manager.
Demand from biofuels and livestock feed is also expected to strengthen. US biofuel targets imply higher ethanol production from 2025 to 2026, while strong livestock prices may encourage herd rebuilding, supporting feed-grain demand and improving conditions for select agricultural equities.
Active positioning remains key
Ninety One’s current positioning reflects divergent sector dynamics. The team is overweight precious metals, broadly at-weight base metals and bulks, and underweight energy and agriculture, while remaining ready to adjust as conditions evolve.
“An active and highly selective approach is essential in this environment. The headline story for a commodity can look positive, but the range of outcomes at company level is wide. We want to be very deliberate about where we take risk, and ready to adjust as the year unfolds,” Gooden concluded.
