FAB 2026 outlook flags capital reallocation as growth, policy paths diverge
The report projects global GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026, marginally lower than the 3.2 per cent estimated for 2025
04 February, 2026
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First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) said 2026 will mark a turning point for global capital allocation as economic growth diverges across regions, monetary policy easing slows, and geopolitical and technological risks reshape investment decisions.
In its Global Investment Outlook 2026, titled “Shifting Currents: Recalibrating Capital Amid a Changing Global Economic Order”, the UAE’s largest lender outlines a global environment defined by uneven growth, cautious central banks and shifting capital flows.
The report projects global GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026, marginally lower than the 3.2 per cent estimated for 2025.
Advanced economies are expected to expand at around 1.5 per cent, while emerging markets are forecast to outperform, led by the GCC and Egypt with growth above 4 per cent.
UAE expected to be the strongest performer in the region, FAB report shows
FAB expects the UAE to be the strongest performer in the region, with real GDP growth of about 5.6 per cent, supported by economic diversification, structural reforms and sustained investment activity.
Monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive relative to previous cycles. While inflation has eased from recent peaks, FAB identifies it as a continuing macroeconomic risk, alongside elevated geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing supply-side constraints.
In the US, interest rate cuts are expected to continue in 2026, but at a slower pace than in 2025.
The outlook highlights increasing divergence in regional and asset-class performance, calling for greater discipline in portfolio construction. Diversification remains central to risk management, particularly as structural shifts narrow traditional margins of safety across markets.
Technological change is identified as a major driver of long-term transformation, with artificial intelligence, automation and digital platforms accelerating changes in asset management and wealth allocation.
The report also points to growing institutionalisation in GCC capital markets, alongside regulatory development and a rising role for the region in global capital allocation.
MENA markets to play a larger role in diversified global portfolios
MENA markets are expected to play a larger role in diversified global portfolios, supported by non-oil growth and ongoing policy reforms.
Andrea Vigano, executive chairman of Asset Management at First Abu Dhabi Bank, said: “Despite a shifting global backdrop, 2026 offers compelling opportunities for investors who remain focused, disciplined, and well-diversified. FAB’s Global Investment Outlook 2026 provides practical insights to help clients navigate evolving market conditions with clarity and confidence.
“Drawing on the bank’s deep expertise and regional perspective, the report translates global macro trends into actionable guidance, empowering clients to rebalance portfolios, manage risk and capture long-term opportunities, with the GCC and the UAE continuing to serve as a key anchor of resilience and growth.”
FAB said the outlook is intended to support investors reassessing risk, return and diversification as global economic conditions adjust. The report brings together views from portfolio managers, research and investment strategy teams across the bank’s asset management platform.
FAB manages assets across more than 20 markets and reported total assets of Dhs1.40tn ($382bn) as of December 2025.
At a glance: Key highlights
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Monetary policy recalibration: 2026 is expected to be characterised by measured and cautious monetary policy globally. While inflation has eased from recent peaks, it remains a key risk amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing supply-side constraints.
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Interest rates: Rate cuts in the US are expected to proceed at a slower pace than in 2025, with inflation remaining the primary macroeconomic risk alongside elevated geopolitical tensions.
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Cross-asset and regional outlooks: Global economic growth in 2026 is expected to be modest and uneven. Advanced economies are forecast to grow by around 1.5 per cent, while emerging markets, particularly the GCC and Egypt, are expected to outperform with growth above 4 per cent.
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UAE outlook: The UAE is forecast to lead regional performance, with real GDP growth projected at around 5.6 per cent, supported by diversification initiatives, structural reforms and sustained investment activity.
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Technological transformation: Artificial intelligence, automation and digital platforms are accelerating structural shifts across wealth and asset management.
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Thematic and macro trends: The global economy is expected to continue expanding in 2026, but unevenly, as growth dynamics shift, demand and supply evolve, and margins of safety narrow.
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Portfolio construction and risk management: Diversification remains central to portfolio construction and risk management, helping mitigate downside risk while enabling investors to capture opportunities across market cycles.
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Global economic growth: Global GDP is projected to expand by 3.1 per cent in 2026, compared with 3.2 per cent in 2025. Regionally, growth momentum is expected to continue, supported by non-oil GDP expansion and policy reforms.
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MENA markets: MENA markets are expected to offer attractive investment opportunities and play a growing role in global portfolio diversification.
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Asset management landscape: The outlook highlights accelerating institutionalisation in the GCC, regulatory evolution and the region’s growing role in global capital allocation, alongside rising demand for professionally managed investment solutions and broader product offerings.



















