The start of the conflict on February 28 has clearly left its mark on Dubai’s real estate market.

After entering the year on very strong footing, the market saw an immediate slowdown in activity.

However, looking closely at the Dubai Land Department records tracked by The Real Estate Reports, the story isn’t just about falling volumes, it’s about a market that is pausing rather than breaking.

The immediate impact: A sharp drop in liquidity

The most visible change happened in the first full week after February 28. If we look at the headline totals, which include land deals, the numbers show a significant cooling effect.

In Week 9 (Feb 23–Mar 1), the market saw Dhs20.72bn across 5,473 transactions. By Week 10 (Mar 02–08), those figures dropped to Dhs10.37bn across 3,038 transactions. That is a 49.9 per cent decline in value and 44.5 per cent fewer deals week-on-week.

To get an even clearer picture, we can look at just the weekdays (Monday to Friday) to avoid the typical weekend data lulls. The five weekdays before the conflict saw Dhs20.41bn in activity, while the five weekdays after saw Dhs10.16bn. Essentially, the market’s “run-rate” cut in half almost immediately.

A stable structure: off-plan still leads

One of the most interesting findings in the recent data is that the “shape” of the market didn’t flip. Even with the geopolitical tension, off-plan properties continued to dominate.

In Week 9, off-plan made up 62.4 per cent of built-property value. In Week 10, that share actually grew slightly to 66.2 per cent. This suggests that investors haven’t abandoned long-term plays. Off-plan flats remain the core driver, making up about 78 per cent of all off-plan value in Week 10. The ready market followed a similar pattern, remaining largely apartment-led.

High-end resilience and mortgages

While overall sales cooled, the luxury end of the market proved it still has a pulse. On March 4, a single apartment at Aman Residences (Jumeirah Second) transacted for Dhs422m. Deals like this serve as a reminder that high-ticket liquidity hasn’t disappeared; the top end of the market tends to operate on its own logic, even during periods of caution.

Mortgage registrations also eased but stayed meaningful, representing about 19 per cent of the total market value in Week 10. These registrations remain heavily concentrated in the ready-property segment, where financing is most common.

The bottom line: A “risk-off” pause

It is important to keep the broader context in mind. Dubai entered this period in a position of extreme strength. Total market value in 2025 reached Dhs841.7bn (up from Dhs665.4bn in 2024), and January 2026 was nearly double the previous year.

The current data reflects a “risk-off” environment where buyers are exercising caution.

Activity is still clustering in familiar hubs like Dubai Marina, Palm Jumeirah, Burj Khalifa, and Business Bay.

In short: the market has slowed down, but it isn’t broken. The structural preference for off-plan and the occasional massive luxury transaction suggest that while the “run-rate” is lower for now, the fundamental interest in Dubai real estate remains intact.

• Ali Shahin is the founder of The Real Estate Report, an independent platform that dives into the data driving the property sector in the UAE. You can follow The Real Estate Report on substack or via its website.

The UAE is set to experience a mixed weather pattern this week, with periods of cloud cover, light rainfall in several regions, and strong winds that could affect maritime and outdoor operations, according to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM).

The NCM said conditions today will be partly cloudy to cloudy at times, with a chance of rainfall over some western and coastal areas as well as offshore islands. Winds will be light to moderate, freshening at times, while sea conditions will remain slight to moderate in the Arabian Gulf and slight in the Oman Sea.

On Tuesday, March 10, cloud cover is expected to continue with possible rainfall over western, coastal and eastern areas of the country. Temperatures are forecast to decrease slightly, particularly in western regions. Winds will blow northwesterly to northeasterly at speeds of 10–25 km/h, reaching up to 35 km/h. The sea will remain slight to moderate in the Arabian Gulf and slight in the Oman Sea.

By Wednesday, March 11, partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will persist, with a probability of light rainfall over some western, northern and eastern areas. Temperatures are expected to rise again during the day. Humidity levels will increase overnight and into Thursday morning across coastal and internal areas, raising the possibility of mist formation. Winds will remain northwesterly to northeasterly at 10–25 km/h, reaching 35 km/h, while the Arabian Gulf may see rough conditions at times early in the morning.

Weather conditions are expected to intensify slightly on Thursday, March 12, with moderate to fresh northwesterly to northeasterly winds strengthening over the sea. Wind speeds could reach 45 km/h, potentially causing blowing dust and sand across exposed areas. The sea will be rough in the Arabian Gulf before easing to moderate by evening, while conditions in the Oman Sea will range from moderate to rough at times. Light rainfall remains possible over islands and some coastal areas, alongside a decrease in temperatures.

On Friday, March 13, skies will remain partly cloudy to cloudy, with a probability of light rainfall over islands and some coastal and eastern areas. Winds will shift northeasterly to southeasterly at speeds of 10–20 km/h, reaching 35 km/h, while sea conditions will gradually ease to moderate to slight in the Arabian Gulf and remain slight in the Oman Sea.

The dollar surged on Monday as soaring oil prices sent investors scrambling for cash on worries that a protracted Middle East war could severely disrupt energy supplies and hurt global growth.

Against the surging greenback, the euro and sterling were down roughly 1 per cent in Asia, while the Aussie dollar and even the safe-haven Swiss franc similarly tumbled, as the dollar proved king.

“The US dollar’s finding no shortage of support from traditional haven considerations and obviously, the US’ net energy exporter status in sharp contrast to most of Europe,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

The broad market rout triggered indiscriminate selling across assets on Monday.

Stocks, bonds and precious metals slid as investors, spooked by the impact of surging oil prices on global inflation and economic growth, turned risk-averse and cashed in on some of their most profitable trades.

“The longer this goes on, the more exponential the damage becomes in a domino effect, which is exactly what oil is now showing to a market that saw some takes last week that things could be a lot worse,” said Michael Every, senior global strategist at Rabobank.

“If we are still in the same position this time next week, things could be quite terrifying.”

The euro last traded 0.9 per cent lower at $1.1517, having slid to a 3-1/2-month low earlier in the session, while sterling slid 1 per cent to $1.3294.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was up 0.75 per cent at 0.7817. The Australian and New Zealand dollars slid 0.77 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

Analysts have said Asia could bear the brunt of the energy price shock, due to the region’s heavy reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East.

The dollar was a whisker away from the 159 yen level in Asia, rising 0.55 per cent to 158.70, and it jumped 1 per cent against the South Korean won to 1,496.40.

“The real question is how high and how long prices stay elevated – because that’s what will ultimately determine the economic fallout,” said Deepali Bhargava, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING.

“A prolonged conflict, coupled with continued currency weakness, would feed more directly into inflation pressures across the region.”

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into the war.

The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supplies, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.

Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times on Friday he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel.

High energy prices act like a tax and can also stoke inflation, leaving investors worried that central bankers may be reluctant to cut interest rates.

Surprisingly weak US jobs data on Friday briefly stalled dollar gains and raised expectations for US rate cuts, but that faded somewhat by Monday, with traders now pricing in less than 40 basis points worth of easing by the end of the year.

Iran‘s Assembly of Experts has named Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader, state media reported on Sunday.

Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric with close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, had long been viewed by elements of Iran‘s ruling establishment as a potential successor to his father, who was killed after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

Although Iran‘s ruling ideology frowns on the principle of hereditary succession, he has a powerful following within the Guards and his dead father’s still-influential office.

More than 90 per cent of missiles and drones fired toward the UAE since February 28 have been intercepted, according to the latest figures released by the country’s Ministry of Defence (MOD).

The update came as the MOD published new video footage showing Iranian drones being destroyed mid-air as the UAE’s air defence systems continue responding to the regional escalation.

In the video, released on the ministry’s official X account, air defence operators can be heard confirming “target destroyed” as incoming unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are successfully intercepted.

“There is no compromise when it comes to the nation’s security and sovereignty,” the ministry said.

“The UAE Armed Forces stand ready to deter any threat.”

Latest interception figures

According to the MOD’s latest update released on Sunday, the UAE has detected more than 1,600 incoming projectiles since the conflict escalated on February 28 following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The figures include drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

UAVs (drones)

• 1,422 detected
• 1,342 intercepted
• 80 impacts on land

Ballistic missiles

• 238 detected
• 221 intercepted
• 15 fell into the sea
• 2 impacts on land

Cruise missiles

• 8 detected
• 8 intercepted

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A post shared by MOD | وزارة الدفاع (@modgovae)

The data shows that the overwhelming majority of incoming threats have been neutralised before reaching their targets, reflecting the effectiveness of the UAE’s layered air defence network.

The country operates advanced systems including THAAD and Patriot missile defence platforms, which are designed to intercept threats at different altitudes and ranges.

Iran’s Shahed drones

Many of the UAVs used in the attacks are believed to be part of Iran’s Shahed drone family, particularly the Shahed-136, which has been widely deployed by Iran in recent years.

The Shahed-136 is a loitering munition, sometimes referred to as a “kamikaze drone”, meaning it detonates on impact with its target.

Key characteristics include:

• Speed: approximately 160–185 km/h
• Range: estimated 1,000km to 2,000km
• Length: around 3.5 metres
• Wingspan: about 2.5 metres

The drones are typically launched from truck-mounted racks, allowing multiple units to be fired in quick succession.

They are relatively inexpensive compared with conventional missiles and are often built using commercially available components, including small piston engines, satellite navigation systems and lightweight composite materials such as fibreglass.

Because of their lower cost, they can be deployed in large numbers.

However, their relatively slow speed and predictable flight paths mean they remain vulnerable to interception by modern air defence networks.

Defence systems activated across the Gulf

The drone and missile campaign has targeted several countries across the Gulf since the escalation began at the end of February.

Authorities across the UAE have repeatedly emphasised that defence systems are operating as designed, with interceptions taking place before threats reach populated areas.

Officials have also stressed that national security and public safety remain the top priority as the situation continues to evolve.