GCC economies to shrink in 2026 before 8.5% rebound — ICAEW
Iran war dents near-term outlook, but strong fundamentals set the stage for a rapid recovery across the region
14 April, 2026
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GCC economies are expected to slip into a mild contraction this year as geopolitical tensions weigh on trade, energy flows and tourism, before staging a strong rebound with growth of 8.5 per cent in 2027, according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).
The latest regional outlook shows that the escalation of the Iran war has triggered a “material reassessment” of the GCC’s near-term trajectory, with GDP now forecast to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2026 — a downgrade of 4.6 percentage points compared to expectations just three months ago.
“We now expect a slight decline in GCC GDP this year, with the pace of recovery conditional on the duration and trajectory of the current situation,” the report said.
The downturn reflects the region’s exposure to disrupted energy exports, constrained shipping routes and a sharp slowdown in travel demand, particularly as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
The impact is expected to be uneven across the bloc, with economies more exposed to trade and tourism facing the most immediate pressure.
“Beyond the energy trade, tourism and travel will face the most sustained disruption before recovery takes hold,” the report added.

Rebound in 2027
Despite the near-term hit, the outlook points to a powerful recovery once conditions stabilise. Growth across the GCC is now projected to surge to 8.5 per cent in 2027, supported by a rebound in oil output, recovering trade flows and renewed investor confidence.
“We continue to expect a recovery in activity once conditions stabilise, supported by the region’s strong economic fundamentals and long-term investment appeal,” the report said.
The energy sector is expected to lead the rebound, with oil output projected to rise sharply next year after a decline in 2026, while non-energy sectors will also recover as domestic demand strengthens and tourism flows return.
Zooming out, the report highlights a broader slowdown across the region and globally. Middle East GDP is now expected to shrink by 2.2 per cent in 2026, a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts of 3.6 per cent growth, as conflict-related disruptions ripple across energy markets and trade routes.
Globally, growth is also being revised lower, with world GDP forecast at 2.6 per cent this year, down from the 2.8–3.0 per cent range seen over the past three years, reflecting the impact of energy price volatility and heightened geopolitical risk.
The report also points to severe country-level impacts. Iran’s economy is expected to contract by around 9.4 per cent this year amid damage to oil infrastructure and broader economic disruption, while Lebanon faces renewed instability that threatens its recovery prospects.
Across the GCC, inflation is expected to edge higher to 2.5 per cent in 2026 due to rising import costs and disrupted supply chains, before easing slightly to 2.4 per cent in 2027.

Despite the near-term shock, the report stresses that the region’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, with strong sovereign balance sheets, ongoing investment in strategic sectors such as AI, financial services and healthcare, and continued access to global capital markets.
“Outcomes will ultimately depend on how the situation evolves in the coming weeks,” the report noted, highlighting the high degree of uncertainty facing both the region and the global economy.




























