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GCC economies to shrink in 2026 before 8.5% rebound — ICAEW

Iran war dents near-term outlook, but strong fundamentals set the stage for a rapid recovery across the region

Gareth van Zyl
Gareth van Zyl

14 April, 2026

GCC economies to shrink in 2026 before 8.5% rebound — ICAEW
Image: Getty Images

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Article Summary
The ICAEW forecasts a mild contraction for GCC economies in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions impacting trade, energy, and tourism. A strong 8.5% rebound is expected in 2027 following stabilisation. The Middle East faces broader economic slowdown, with global growth also revised downwards. Despite near-term shocks, GCC fundamentals remain strong, although uncertainty persists.

GCC economies are expected to slip into a mild contraction this year as geopolitical tensions weigh on trade, energy flows and tourism, before staging a strong rebound with growth of 8.5 per cent in 2027, according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

The latest regional outlook shows that the escalation of the Iran war has triggered a “material reassessment” of the GCC’s near-term trajectory, with GDP now forecast to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2026 — a downgrade of 4.6 percentage points compared to expectations just three months ago.

“We now expect a slight decline in GCC GDP this year, with the pace of recovery conditional on the duration and trajectory of the current situation,” the report said.

The downturn reflects the region’s exposure to disrupted energy exports, constrained shipping routes and a sharp slowdown in travel demand, particularly as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.

The impact is expected to be uneven across the bloc, with economies more exposed to trade and tourism facing the most immediate pressure.

“Beyond the energy trade, tourism and travel will face the most sustained disruption before recovery takes hold,” the report added.

Rebound in 2027

Despite the near-term hit, the outlook points to a powerful recovery once conditions stabilise. Growth across the GCC is now projected to surge to 8.5 per cent in 2027, supported by a rebound in oil output, recovering trade flows and renewed investor confidence.

“We continue to expect a recovery in activity once conditions stabilise, supported by the region’s strong economic fundamentals and long-term investment appeal,” the report said.

The energy sector is expected to lead the rebound, with oil output projected to rise sharply next year after a decline in 2026, while non-energy sectors will also recover as domestic demand strengthens and tourism flows return.

Zooming out, the report highlights a broader slowdown across the region and globally. Middle East GDP is now expected to shrink by 2.2 per cent in 2026, a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts of 3.6 per cent growth, as conflict-related disruptions ripple across energy markets and trade routes.

Globally, growth is also being revised lower, with world GDP forecast at 2.6 per cent this year, down from the 2.8–3.0 per cent range seen over the past three years, reflecting the impact of energy price volatility and heightened geopolitical risk.

The report also points to severe country-level impacts. Iran’s economy is expected to contract by around 9.4 per cent this year amid damage to oil infrastructure and broader economic disruption, while Lebanon faces renewed instability that threatens its recovery prospects.

Across the GCC, inflation is expected to edge higher to 2.5 per cent in 2026 due to rising import costs and disrupted supply chains, before easing slightly to 2.4 per cent in 2027.

Despite the near-term shock, the report stresses that the region’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, with strong sovereign balance sheets, ongoing investment in strategic sectors such as AI, financial services and healthcare, and continued access to global capital markets.

“Outcomes will ultimately depend on how the situation evolves in the coming weeks,” the report noted, highlighting the high degree of uncertainty facing both the region and the global economy.

China’s Seres reports strong 2025 results on premium EV demand

The company said it is accelerating its global expansion strategy, focusing on overseas market development and building its international brand presence alongside domestic growth

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

14 April, 2026

China’s Seres reports strong 2025 results on premium EV demand
Image: Supplied

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Seres Group reported strong 2025 results, driven by high demand for its AITO premium NEVs. Revenue rose 13.7% to RMB165.05bn, with net profit at RMB5.96bn. Significant R&D investment (up 77.4%) fuelled innovation, with a focus on both range-extended and fully electric vehicles. Global expansion is planned, alongside exploration of new technologies like intelligent robotics.

Seres Group Co. reported a strong financial performance for 2025, driven by demand for its premium new energy vehicle (NEV) portfolio and continued investment in research and development.

The company posted revenue of RMB165.05bn (approximately $23bn), up 13.7 per cent year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB5.96bn (around $865m). Gross profit margin for its NEV segment stood at 28.8 per cent, among the highest in the industry.

R&D investment rose sharply to RMB12.51bn (about $1.8bn), marking a 77.4 per cent increase year-on-year, as the company continued to prioritise product innovation and expansion.

AITO drives growth in premium segment

Seres’ performance was supported by strong demand for its high-end AITO range, which delivered more than 420,000 vehicles in 2025, making it the best-selling Chinese luxury car brand in the domestic market.

Key models continued to perform strongly, with the AITO M9 delivering over 110,000 units, the AITO M8 exceeding 150,000 units, and the AITO M7 also surpassing 110,000 deliveries during the year.

The company said these results reflect its growing competitiveness in China’s premium NEV segment, supported by product strength, technology capabilities and increasing brand recognition.

In intelligent driving, cumulative assisted driving mileage reached 3.8 billion kilometres, indicating rising user adoption of advanced driver-assistance features.

R&D expansion and technology focus

Seres continued to scale its R&D capabilities, with its workforce growing to 9,091 employees, up 45.4 per year-on-year. The company’s total authorised patents reached 8,046, supporting ongoing product development and innovation.

The group maintained its focus on a dual powertrain strategy spanning range-extended and pure electric vehicles. It ranked first in China’s range-extended segment with a 37.5% market share, while continuing to expand its fully electric portfolio.

The company reported net operating cash flow of RMB28.91bn (approximately $4bn), underlining a strong liquidity position to support ongoing investments and global expansion.

The board proposed a final dividend of RMB0.8 per share, with total cash dividends of around RMB1.9bn (approximately $275m), reflecting a continued focus on shareholder returns.

Seres also strengthened its environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance during the year, achieving a AAA rating from MSCI.

The company said it is accelerating its global expansion strategy, focusing on overseas market development and building its international brand presence alongside domestic growth.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Seres plans to deepen its focus on high-end intelligent electric vehicles, expand its product lineup and advance core technologies, with a target of reaching cumulative sales of two million units within the next two years.

The company also plans to expand its presence in international markets and explore new growth areas, including intelligent robotics, as part of its long-term strategy.

Relief for businesses: Dubai Healthcare City announces fee waivers, installment plans

Issam Galadari, CEO of Dubai Healthcare City Authority, emphasised the importance of the initiative in driving stability and investment within the free zone

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

14 April, 2026

Relief for businesses: Dubai Healthcare City announces fee waivers, installment plans

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Dubai Healthcare City Authority (DHCA) has launched economic measures to bolster business partners within Dubai Healthcare City (DHCC). These include fee waivers for licence renewals and flexible payment plans until September 2026. The initiative aims to drive stability, investment, and long-term sustainability of world-class services within the free zone, supporting business growth and resilience.

Dubai Healthcare City Authority (DHCA), the governing body of Dubai Healthcare City (DHCC), has introduced a new package of economic measures aimed at supporting its business partners and strengthening opportunities for sustainable growth.

The initiative underscores Dubai’s continued focus on empowering key sectors, enhancing resilience, and ensuring businesses are well-positioned to adapt to changing market conditions, according to a WAM report.

Leadership highlights long-term vision

Issam Galadari, CEO of Dubai Healthcare City Authority, emphasised the importance of the initiative in driving stability and investment within the free zone.

Read more-Dubai Integrated Economic Zones Authority unveils economic measures for firms

“The measures introduced by the Dubai Healthcare City Authority reflect our commitment to supporting our business partners and ensuring the sustainability and growth of their operations,” Galadari said. “They form an integral part of DHCC’s broader ecosystem objectives, fostering a stable and enabling environment for growth, investment, and the long-term sustainability of world-class specialised services within the free zone.”

Fee waivers and flexible payment options introduced

Among the key measures is a waiver of re-instatement fees and late renewal penalties for commercial licences renewed between April 1 and June 30, 2026.

Businesses will also be able to settle renewal fees through installment plans, including post-dated cheques, with deadlines extending until September 30, 2026.

Additional provisions offer greater flexibility in leasing arrangements, allowing companies to defer or restructure payments into installments. Notably, deferment charges and cheque return fees will also be waived.

DHCA confirmed that eligible partners can apply for these measures under specified criteria and timelines. The authority reaffirmed its commitment to supporting businesses as they explore growth and expansion opportunities from Dubai, a city that continues to foster ambition and innovation.

Sobha Realty enters Abu Dhabi with 38 million sq ft waterfront master community

Ravi Menon, chairman of Sobha Group, said the entry into Abu Dhabi reflects long-term confidence in the emirate’s development trajectory

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

14 April, 2026

Sobha Realty enters Abu Dhabi with 38 million sq ft waterfront master community
Image: Supplied

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Sobha Realty is expanding into Abu Dhabi with Sobha City, a large-scale waterfront development in Al Bahiya. The project prioritises low-density living and green spaces, featuring residential areas, retail outlets, and leisure facilities. It will include a wellness loop and marina district, reflecting Sobha's confidence in Abu Dhabi's growth and long-term residential demand.

Luxury developer Sobha Realty has announced its first entry into Abu Dhabi with Sobha City, a 38 million square-foot master-planned waterfront community in Al Bahiya designed around low-density living, green space and long-term residential demand.

The project marks a major expansion for the developer, which has projects in Dubai and Umm Al Quwain, and signals its push into the UAE capital’s premium residential segment.

Located along the E10 and E12 corridors near Zayed International Airport and Yas Island, the development’s first phase covers around 8 million square feet and is planned as a “city within a city” combining residential districts with retail, leisure and essential services.

Sobha City will dedicate around 60 per cent of its total area to open and green space, with more than 50,000 trees, landscaped zones and shaded walkways.

The master plan also includes an 18-kilometre wellness loop designed to encourage pedestrian movement and outdoor activity.

Waterfront promenade and marina district central to Sobha City

A two-kilometre waterfront promenade and marina district will anchor the community, alongside schools, healthcare facilities, mosques and an executive par-3 golf course designed by Greg Norman Golf Course Design.

Ravi Menon, chairman of Sobha Group, said the entry into Abu Dhabi reflects long-term confidence in the emirate’s development trajectory.

“Abu Dhabi holds a unique position as a city that balances cultural authenticity with forward-looking ambition,” he said. “Sobha City has been envisioned as a calm, enduring and connected environment that is future-ready.”

The development will offer waterfront apartments, villas and mansions aimed at families as well as international investors seeking long-term value. Sobha Realty said each residence will follow its “Art of Detail” design approach, supported by its in-house backward integration model covering design, engineering and construction.

Francis Alfred, MD of Sobha Realty, said the structure of the company’s development model would support quality control and long-term resilience.

The launch expands Sobha Realty’s UAE footprint, adding to projects including Sobha Hartland and Sobha Siniya Island.

More than 15 US warships blockade Hormuz: What we know about the fleet

Multiple US navy ships are deployed across the Gulf as Washington moves to stave off Iranian ports following the collapse of US-Iran talks

Gareth van Zyl
Gareth van Zyl

14 April, 2026

More than 15 US warships blockade Hormuz: What we know about the fleet
Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121) navigates in the Gulf of Mexico during bravo trials.

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Following failed negotiations, the US has reportedly deployed over 15 warships to enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports. This operation, confirmed by the US Central Command, aims to restrict Iran's oil exports and control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade is disrupting global shipping and energy markets, despite ongoing, albeit fragile, diplomatic efforts.

The US has deployed more than 15 warships to enforce a sweeping naval blockade targeting Iranian ports, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

The operation, launched after the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations on Sunday, is designed to restrict Tehran’s ability to export oil and control maritime traffic through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

The United States Central Command, in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters, confirmed the blockade came into effect at 14:00 GMT (18:00 UAE time) on Monday.

“Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorisation is subject to interception, diversion, and capture,” the note said.

Read more: In note to seafarers, US military says Gulf blockade to be enforced

Meanwhile, an advisory from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said restrictions now apply across Iranian ports and coastal areas spanning the Gulf, Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea.

What we know about the fleet

The US naval force is built around a mix of high-capability assets, including aircraft carriers acting as floating airbases, guided-missile destroyers forming the backbone of enforcement, amphibious assault ships capable of deploying Marines and helicopters, and support vessels coordinating operations across the theatre.

While US officials have not released a full list of vessels involved, multiple reports from The Wall Street Journal and Business Insider suggest the fleet includes guided-missile destroyers such as the USS Michael Murphy and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., which have recently operated in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Sailors man the rails aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (Image: US Navy)

The USS Michael Murphy and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. are Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, among the most versatile and heavily armed ships in the US Navy. Designed for multi-role operations, they combine advanced radar systems, long-range missiles and anti-submarine capabilities, allowing them to track threats across air, sea and below the surface.

The guided missile destroyer USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) returns to Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, March 29, 2013. The Michael Murphy was underway in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of responsibility preparing for her final contract trials. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jon Dasbach/Released)

In a scenario like the Strait of Hormuz, these ships act as frontline enforcers — escorting commercial vessels, monitoring shipping lanes, intercepting suspect traffic and providing air and missile defence for the wider fleet. Their speed, firepower and surveillance capabilities make them critical to enforcing a blockade, particularly in contested waters where risks such as mines, drones and fast-attack craft are elevated.

Read more: Two US warships entered the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what happened next

Analysts say additional assets likely include Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, carrier strike group elements and amphibious ships positioned across the region — though the exact composition remains fluid and undisclosed.

That uncertainty is deliberate. The US Navy rarely publishes full operational details in active conflict zones, meaning the “more than 15 warships” figure reflects aggregated reporting and defence analysis rather than a confirmed manifest.

Together, these assets allow the US to monitor vast stretches of sea, control shipping lanes and physically enforce the blockade through interception, escort operations and boarding missions.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, handling roughly 20 per cent of global oil flows.

The blockade is already reshaping shipping patterns, with vessels rerouting or delaying transit amid heightened security risks. Washington’s strategy appears focused on applying sustained economic pressure on Iran by targeting its export routes, while maintaining control over a critical global trade artery.

The scale of disruption is stark. In normal conditions, around 130 to 135 ships transit the strait dailyl. That flow has now slowed dramatically, with only a handful of vessels, in some cases fewer than 10, passing through in recent days.

Before the crisis, the strait handled roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 20 per cent of global supply. Now, much of that flow has been disrupted, with vessels delaying transit or avoiding the route altogether, raising concerns across global energy markets.

Diplomacy still in play

Despite the escalation, there are signs diplomacy is not entirely off the table.

US Vice President JD Vance overnight said talks with Iran failed to secure agreement on the core issue of Tehran’s nuclear programme, but indicated discussions covered a wide range of topics, including frozen assets, and could continue if positions shift.

The remarks suggest that while the blockade marks a major escalation, it may also serve as leverage in ongoing, albeit fragile, diplomatic efforts.

Sanctioned Chinese tanker crosses Hormuz despite US blockade

The Rich Starry would be the first to make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began

Reuters
Reuters

14 April, 2026

Sanctioned Chinese tanker crosses Hormuz despite US blockade
Image: Getty Images/Image for illustrative purpose

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A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker, the Rich Starry, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. The vessel, owned by Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping and carrying methanol, is the first to exit the Gulf since the blockade began. Another sanctioned tanker, the Murlikishan, also entered the strait, expected to load fuel oil in Iraq.

A Chinese tanker sanctioned by the United States passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday despite a US blockade on the chokepoint, shipping data showed.

The Rich Starry would be the first to make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began, data from LSEG, MarineTraffic and Kpler showed.

The tanker and its owner Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd were sanctioned by the United States for dealing with Iran. The company could not be immediately reached for comment.

Rich Starry is a medium-range tanker that is carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol on board, according to the data. It loaded the cargo at its last port of call, the United Arab Emirates’ Hamriyah, the data showed.

The Chinese-owned tanker has Chinese crew on board, the data showed.

Another US-sanctioned tanker Murlikishan also headed into the strait on Tuesday, LSEG data showed. The empty handysize tanker is expected to load fuel oil at Iraq on April 16, Kpler data showed. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oil.

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