Will UAE fuel prices drop in May after OPEC exit?
The UAE has already seen a significant surge in fuel prices heading into April, driven by global crude market volatility and geopolitical tensions
29 April, 2026
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With the UAE set to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+ from May 1, attention is now turning to a more immediate question for businesses and consumers: what happens to fuel prices in the UAE when May rates are announced.
The answer, based on current market dynamics, is far from straightforward.
A sharp rise already priced in
The UAE has already seen a significant surge in fuel prices heading into April, driven by global crude market volatility and geopolitical tensions.
Fuel prices for April 2026 were set at:
Super 98: Dh3.39 per litre (up from Dh2.59 in March)
Special 95: Dh3.28 (from Dh2.48)
E-Plus 91: Dh3.20 (from Dh2.40)
Diesel: Dh4.69 (from Dh2.72)
This marked one of the steepest month-on-month increases in recent years, reflecting a surge in global oil prices amid regional conflict and supply disruptions.
In effect, much of the geopolitical premium — including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and inventory drawdowns — has already been priced into April rates.
Short-term outlook: limited immediate relief
Despite the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, most analysts suggest that May fuel prices are unlikely to see a sharp drop.
This is because UAE fuel prices are linked to global crude benchmarks rather than domestic production policy alone. Monthly pricing is set by the UAE Fuel Price Committee based on international oil trends, exchange rates and supply-demand dynamics.
Global conditions remain tight, with crude markets are still dealing with:
- Disrupted supply flows due to regional conflict
- Depleted commercial and strategic inventories
- Strong demand for stockpile replenishment
As a result, even if the UAE gains more flexibility to increase production outside OPEC quotas, the global market — not domestic policy — will continue to dictate pump prices in the near term.
Dr Sahitya Chaturvedi, Secretary General of the Indian Business and Professional Council Dubai under the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, noted that UAE’s exit from OPEC comes at a time of elevated oil prices and significant global supply disruptions.
“The move comes amid elevated market conditions, with Brent crude at $111–113/bbl and WTI above $100/bbl, alongside a global supply disruption of over 10 million bpd. While this may drive short-term volatility, it also enhances future supply responsiveness,” he said.
Market signals suggest that prices could either:
- Remain elevated (if supply disruptions persist), or
- Ease marginally (if crude stabilises after April’s spike)
But a sharp correction appears unlikely in the immediate term.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that several Gulf producers may take time to restore output to pre-war levels due to infrastructure damage and logistical challenges, while demand for replenishing depleted stockpiles is expected to remain strong.
“Against that backdrop, the UAE has seized the opportunity to exit OPEC, removing the production quota straitjacket that for years frustrated the oil-rich nation and limited its ability to fully utilise a steadily expanding production capacity,” he added.
According to Hansen, the market is likely to absorb additional UAE barrels in the near term, supported by depleted inventories and the need to rebuild reserves. However, he cautioned that the longer-term implications could be more significant.






















