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Will UAE fuel prices drop in May after OPEC exit?

The UAE has already seen a significant surge in fuel prices heading into April, driven by global crude market volatility and geopolitical tensions

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

29 April, 2026

Will UAE fuel prices drop in May after OPEC exit?
Image: Getty Images/Image for illustrative purpose

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With the UAE set to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+ from May 1, attention is now turning to a more immediate question for businesses and consumers: what happens to fuel prices in the UAE when May rates are announced.

The answer, based on current market dynamics, is far from straightforward.

A sharp rise already priced in

The UAE has already seen a significant surge in fuel prices heading into April, driven by global crude market volatility and geopolitical tensions.

Fuel prices for April 2026 were set at:

Super 98: Dh3.39 per litre (up from Dh2.59 in March)
Special 95: Dh3.28 (from Dh2.48)
E-Plus 91: Dh3.20 (from Dh2.40)
Diesel: Dh4.69 (from Dh2.72)

This marked one of the steepest month-on-month increases in recent years, reflecting a surge in global oil prices amid regional conflict and supply disruptions.

In effect, much of the geopolitical premium — including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and inventory drawdowns — has already been priced into April rates.

Short-term outlook: limited immediate relief

Despite the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, most analysts suggest that May fuel prices are unlikely to see a sharp drop.

This is because UAE fuel prices are linked to global crude benchmarks rather than domestic production policy alone. Monthly pricing is set by the UAE Fuel Price Committee based on international oil trends, exchange rates and supply-demand dynamics.

Global conditions remain tight, with crude markets are still dealing with:

  • Disrupted supply flows due to regional conflict
  • Depleted commercial and strategic inventories
  • Strong demand for stockpile replenishment

As a result, even if the UAE gains more flexibility to increase production outside OPEC quotas, the global market — not domestic policy — will continue to dictate pump prices in the near term.

Dr Sahitya Chaturvedi, Secretary General of the Indian Business and Professional Council Dubai under the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, noted that UAE’s exit from OPEC comes at a time of elevated oil prices and significant global supply disruptions.

“The move comes amid elevated market conditions, with Brent crude at $111–113/bbl and WTI above $100/bbl, alongside a global supply disruption of over 10 million bpd. While this may drive short-term volatility, it also enhances future supply responsiveness,” he said.

Market signals suggest that prices could either:

  • Remain elevated (if supply disruptions persist), or
  • Ease marginally (if crude stabilises after April’s spike)

But a sharp correction appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that several Gulf producers may take time to restore output to pre-war levels due to infrastructure damage and logistical challenges, while demand for replenishing depleted stockpiles is expected to remain strong.

“Against that backdrop, the UAE has seized the opportunity to exit OPEC, removing the production quota straitjacket that for years frustrated the oil-rich nation and limited its ability to fully utilise a steadily expanding production capacity,” he added.

According to Hansen, the market is likely to absorb additional UAE barrels in the near term, supported by depleted inventories and the need to rebuild reserves. However, he cautioned that the longer-term implications could be more significant.

Read: Analysts weigh UAE OPEC exit as supply dynamics shift

UAE exits OPEC, OPEC+ in major market shift

Outside the group, the UAE would have both the incentive and the ability to increase production, says Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

28 April, 2026

UAE exits OPEC, OPEC+ in major market shift
Image: Getty Images

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The UAE has announced its decision to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026, marking a significant shift in the country’s energy policy as it seeks greater flexibility in managing production and long-term growth.

The decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production strategy, current capacity and future energy outlook, and is aligned with the country’s broader economic and industrial ambitions, WAM reported.

In a statement, the UAE said the move reflects its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production,” while reinforcing its commitment to remaining a responsible and reliable participant in global energy markets.

The exit comes at a time of continued volatility in global energy markets, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. However, the UAE noted that underlying demand trends remain strong over the medium to long term, requiring flexible and reliable supply.

The country emphasised that its decision is rooted in national interest, while maintaining its commitment to supporting global market stability. The UAE has been a member of OPEC since 1967, initially through Abu Dhabi, and continued its participation following the formation of the federation in 1971.

Despite exiting the alliance, the UAE signalled it will continue to engage constructively with global energy stakeholders and bring additional production to market in a measured and demand-aligned manner.

“The UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions,” the statement said.

The move underscores a broader evolution in the UAE’s energy strategy, which is increasingly focused on balancing hydrocarbons with investments in renewables, low-carbon technologies and energy transition initiatives.

The UAE also highlighted its position as a producer of cost-competitive and lower-carbon oil, noting that such resources will continue to play a role in supporting global economic growth while contributing to emissions reduction goals.

While stepping away from formal coordination under OPEC and OPEC+, the UAE reaffirmed its commitment to cooperation with both producers and consumers to ensure stability in global markets.

“We reaffirm our appreciation for the efforts of both OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance and wish them success,” the statement added. “During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all.”

Looking ahead, the UAE said it will continue investing across the full energy value chain, including oil, gas, renewables and low-carbon solutions, positioning itself to respond to evolving market dynamics while supporting long-term energy system transformation.

Only 0.82 minutes of outage: DEWA sets new world record

The result surpasses its own previous world record of 0.94 minutes set in 2024, reflecting an improvement of nearly 13 per cent

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

28 April, 2026

Only 0.82 minutes of outage: DEWA sets new world record

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Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has achieved a new global benchmark in electricity supply reliability, recording just 0.82 minutes of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) per year, equivalent to about 49 seconds, according to a WAM report.

The result surpasses its own previous world record of 0.94 minutes set in 2024, reflecting an improvement of nearly 13 per cent.

“We utilise the latest technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, particularly artificial intelligence, which we are fully integrating into DEWA’s strategies and operations,” said Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of DEWA.

This milestone reinforces Dubai’s position as a global leader in utility performance and reflects DEWA’s sustained investment in digital infrastructure and operational excellence across network

Smart grid transformation

Al Tayer said DEWA’s smart grid forms a core pillar of its long-term strategy to ensure highly reliable, efficient and sustainable energy services. He noted that the initiative supports Dubai’s broader development goals, including the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan and the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33), which aim to position the city among the world’s top three urban economies.

The authority has invested Dhs7bn in its smart grid programme through 2035, introducing advanced systems that enhance transmission and distribution efficiency, reduce outages, and improve load management across the network.

Advanced restoration system

A key innovation is DEWA’s Automatic Smart Grid Restoration System, the first of its kind in the Middle East and North Africa. It enables real-time monitoring, remote control, and automated fault detection without human intervention, allowing faster isolation of issues and rapid service restoration.

Officials said the system continues to enhance resilience, reduce response times, and improve customer satisfaction by ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply across Dubai’s rapidly expanding urban infrastructure and supporting future demand growth driven by smart city initiatives underpinned by advanced automation systems across the emirate Dubai

DEWA said it has steadily reduced CML from 6.88 minutes in 2012 to 0.82 minutes in 2025, significantly outperforming the European Union utility average of around 15 minutes.

Gold hits three-week low with US-Iran talks, central bank decisions in focus

The dollar gained, and oil prices rose above $111 a barrel, as the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway remained largely shut

Reuters
Reuters

28 April, 2026

Gold hits three-week low with US-Iran talks, central bank decisions in focus

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Gold fell to a three-week low on Tuesday, as elevated oil prices kept inflation concerns high, while investors awaited key central bank decisions this week to see if the Middle East conflict has altered the interest rate outlook.

Spot gold was down 1.1 per cent at $4,628.63 per ounce, as of 0746 GMT, its lowest level since April 7. US gold futures for June delivery fell 1.1 per cent to $4,642.90.

US President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month war, a US official said, dampening hopes for a resolution to the conflict that has disrupted energy supplies, fuelled inflation, and killed thousands.

Read more-Gold heads for biggest monthly drop in more than 17 years

“Geopolitical headlines are still the main driver (of gold prices). In the event of a deal (between the US and Iran) or an interim deal, the dollar should weaken, and gold will likely break out to the upside,” said Edward Meir, analyst at Marex.

The dollar gained, and oil prices rose above $111 a barrel, as the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway remained largely shut.

Higher crude oil prices can stoke inflation by raising transportation and production costs, increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates. While gold is considered an inflation hedge, high interest rates make yield-bearing assets more attractive, weighing on its appeal.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signalling policymakers’ concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.

The US Federal Reserve is also widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Investors will be focusing on other central bank decisions this week, including those from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.

Spot silver fell 2.9 per cent to $73.28 per ounce, platinum lost 1.6 per cent to $1,951.33, and palladium was down 1.6 per cent at $1,453.38.

Trump unhappy with Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, nuclear talks put on hold

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said the US has “been clear about our red lines” as it seeks to end the conflict it began in February alongside Israel

Reuters
Reuters

28 April, 2026

Trump unhappy with Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, nuclear talks put on hold

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US President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal on resolving the two-month conflict, a US official said, dampening hopes for resolution of a conflict that has disrupted energy supplies, fuelled inflation, and killed thousands.

Iran’s latest proposal would set aside discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme until the war, on hold following a ceasefire announced earlier this month, is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved.

Read more-Trump safe after gunfire triggers panic at Washington Hilton gala

Trump is unhappy with Iran’s proposal as he wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset, said a US official briefed on the president’s Monday meeting with his advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said the US has “been clear about our red lines” as it seeks to end the conflict it began in February alongside Israel.

A previous agreement in 2015 between Iran and multiple other countries including the US sharply curtailed Iran’s nuclear programme, which it has long maintained is for peaceful, civilian purposes. But that deal fell apart when Trump unilaterally withdrew from it in his first term in office.

Hopes of reviving peace efforts have receded since the US president scrapped a visit planned for last weekend by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to mediator Pakistan.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi shuttled in and out of Islamabad twice during the weekend. He also visited Oman and on Monday went to Russia, where he met President Vladimir Putin and received words of support from a longstanding ally.

Iran’s Deputy Defence Minister Reza Talaei-Nik said on Tuesday that Tehran was ready to share defensive weapons capabilities and experiences gained from “America’s defeat” with “independent” nations including those of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. That bloc includes Iran, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Central Asian states.

Oil prices rise again

With the warring sides still seemingly far apart, oil prices resumed their upward march, rising nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday and extending gains from the previous session.

“For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and right now, that flow remains constrained,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note.

At least six tankers loaded with Iranian oil have been forced back to Iran by the US blockade in recent days, ship-tracking data showed, underscoring the war’s impact on traffic.

Iran’s foreign ministry condemned US action against Iran-linked tankers as “outright legalization of piracy and armed robbery on the high seas”, in a social media post.

However, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told state media on Tuesday that Iran had prepared for maritime blockade scenarios as early as the US 2024 presidential election and made necessary arrangements so that “there is nothing to worry about”.

She added Tehran was using northern, eastern and western trade corridors that do not rely on Gulf ports to neutralise the blockade’s effects.

Between 125 and 140 ships usually crossed in and out of the strait daily before the war, but only seven have done so in the past day, according to Kpler ship-tracking data and satellite analysis from SynMax, and none of them were carrying oil bound for the global market.

With his approval ratings falling, Trump faces domestic pressure to end a war for which he has given the US public shifting rationales.

Senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the proposal carried by Araqchi to Islamabad over the weekend envisioned talks in stages, with the nuclear issue to be set aside at the start.

A first step would require ending the US-Israeli war on Iran and providing guarantees that the US cannot start it up again. Then negotiators would resolve the US Navy’s blockade of Iran’s trade by sea and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran aims to reopen under its control.

Only then would talks look at other issues, including the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme, with Iran still seeking some kind of US acknowledgment of its right to enrich uranium.

Fully equipped ladies beach park opens in the UAE: What facilities does it offer?

The project includes a two-wing building featuring a fitness hall, creativity hall, café, administrative offices, a clinic, a prayer room, and security facilities

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

28 April, 2026

Fully equipped ladies beach park opens in the UAE: What facilities does it offer?

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Sharjah Department of Public Works (SDPW) has completed the Ladies Beach Park in Dibba Al Hisn, delivering a 6,350 square metre women-focused recreational development aimed at enhancing quality of life and community amenities.

The project is part of wider efforts to expand modern leisure infrastructure across the emirate, according to a WAM report.

Read more-Dubai to roll out ‘Work from Park’ spaces in push to blend productivity with green areas

The project includes a two-wing building featuring a fitness hall, creativity hall, café, administrative offices, a clinic, a prayer room, and security facilities, along with supporting services. Designed as an integrated destination, the park provides a dedicated environment for women to engage in sports, wellness, and social activities within a modern and well-equipped setting.

Family-friendly amenities and fitness spaces

Additional features include a shaded children’s playground with safe rubber flooring and a waterfront jogging track, encouraging outdoor activity and fitness in a family-friendly environment.

The SDPW also implemented coastal protection works, constructing a 200-metre rock revetment to safeguard the shoreline and park infrastructure from wave impact. The beach has been enclosed with a 3-metre-high fence to ensure privacy, alongside lifeguard towers, bathing areas, and service rooms to enhance visitor safety.

The development strengthens Dibba Al Hisn’s recreational offering and supports the emirate’s commitment to providing safe, inclusive public spaces for women.

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