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Report: Oil spikes as Hormuz disruption rattles global markets

Despite the geopolitical spike, Sasha Foss, energy analyst at Marex, notes that global supply fundamentals remain relatively balanced, with increased output from Venezuela, Guyana, the US, Canada, Argentina and Brazil providing a buffer

Rajiv Pillai
Rajiv Pillai

03 March, 2026

Report: Oil spikes as Hormuz disruption rattles global markets
Image credit: Getty Images

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Oil prices rose due to Middle East geopolitical risks, with Brent crude reaching $78.42. Shipping slowdowns in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandap Strait are tightening prompt conditions. Regional producers have bypass options. Asian importers review strategic petroleum reserves as a precaution. OPEC+ agreed to increase output. Overall, supply fundamentals remain balanced.

Oil markets moved higher on March 2 following developments in the Middle East, with geopolitical risk premiums returning to crude benchmarks.

According to the latest Energy Market Situation Report from CSC Commodities, a division of Marex, front-month Brent crude rose $5.55 per barrel to $78.42 in trading, after earlier reaching $82.37. The front-month spread widened by $1.11 per barrel, with increasing backwardation reflecting tighter prompt conditions.

Strait of Hormuz in focus

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed after several tankers were reportedly struck on March 1. The Strait accounts for around 20 per cent of global oil flows daily, serving as a key route for Middle Eastern exports to Asia.

Some shipping companies have also paused transits through the Bab al-Mandap Strait, which may result in longer sailing routes and firmer freight costs. However, regional producers retain partial bypass options. Saudi Arabia operates the 5 million b/d East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while the UAE’s 1.8 million b/d pipeline to Fujairah provides an alternative export route outside the Gulf.

Sasha Foss, energy analyst at Marex, notes that even if transit conditions normalise, higher insurance costs and logistical adjustments could temporarily affect flows.

The report indicates that while shipping routes remain a focus for markets, attention is also on the resilience of regional energy infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities remain central to global supply, while open-source reports referenced by Marex point to an incident at the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery. Separately, the Juaymah terminal had already suspended LPG exports due to maintenance.

In Iran, Kharg Island continues to serve as the country’s primary export hub. Any prolonged disruption there would have implications for export volumes.

Airspace restrictions across parts of the Middle East, including at Dubai and Bahrain airports, may weigh modestly on regional jet fuel demand, though overall impacts are still being assessed.

Asia reinforces energy buffers

Asian importers are reviewing strategic petroleum reserves as a precautionary measure. India, which imports more than half of its 5 million b/d crude requirement via Hormuz, holds around 10 days of import cover.

Increased Russian crude flows to India are expected, supported by alternative shipping routes. Thailand has suspended oil exports to safeguard domestic supply and holds roughly 60 days of reserves. South Korea and Japan have indicated readiness to draw on strategic stocks if necessary.

China remains relatively well-positioned. Independent refiners process approximately 1.2 million b/d of Iranian crude, and government-controlled reserves have reportedly expanded to around 1.3 billion barrels onshore. Prior stockbuilding has enabled refineries to maintain stable run rates.

Despite the recent price movement, Foss notes that broader supply fundamentals remain comparatively balanced, supported by rising production from Venezuela, Guyana, the US, Canada, Argentina and Brazil. The US is not expected to release crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve unless conditions materially tighten.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ core producers agreed on March 1 to increase output by 206,000 b/d in April, reversing earlier pauses on production increases due to weaker prices.

The additional barrels are expected to provide incremental supply to the market, helping to moderate volatility while producers continue to manage market share and price stability.

Dubai flights: DXB, DWC and Emirates, flydubai to resume limited operations

Travellers should not go to either DXB or DWC unless their airline has contacted them directly with a confirmed departure time

Neesha Salian
Neesha Salian

02 March, 2026

Dubai flights: DXB, DWC and Emirates, flydubai to resume limited operations
Image: Dubai Airports

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Dubai airports (DXB & DWC) will resume limited flight operations starting this evening, March 2nd. Emirates and flydubai will operate some flights. Passengers should only go to the airport if their airline confirms their flight and departure time. UAE airports are prioritizing stranded passengers due to recent regional disruptions.

Dubai Airports said a limited resumption of operations will begin this evening, March 2, with a small number of flights operating from Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC).

Travellers should not go to either airport unless their airline has contacted them directly with a confirmed departure time.

Emirates and flydubai to operate limited flights from March 2

Carriers Emirates and flydubai have also said they will operate a limited number of flights this evening.

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The General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) posted on social media platform X that exceptional flight operations have begun at UAE airports to allow stranded passengers affected by recent regional developments to depart, in line with schedules that airlines will communicate directly to affected travellers and destinations.

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Dust, mist and rain: What to expect across the UAE

Rainfall is forecast across various regions, mostly light to moderate, though it may turn heavy at times over some northern and eastern areas

Nida Sohail
Nida Sohail

02 March, 2026

Dust, mist and rain: What to expect across the UAE
Image credit: Getty Images

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The UAE will experience unstable weather from Tuesday night through March 6, with increasing cloud cover and scattered light to moderate rainfall, potentially heavy in northern/eastern areas. Expect cooler temperatures and rough seas, especially in the Arabian Gulf. Conditions improve gradually by Friday. Residents are advised to monitor official weather alerts.

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast unstable weather conditions across the UAE beginning Tuesday night and continuing through March 6, with increasing cloud cover, scattered rainfall and rough sea conditions expected in several regions.

According to the authority, cloud development will begin Tuesday night over the islands and western areas, bringing a chance of light rainfall. The low-pressure system is expected to deepen relatively on Wednesday as cloud movement shifts toward Abu Dhabi and inland areas before extending to northern and eastern parts of the country, a WAM report said.

Read more-UAE braces for light rain, cooler temperatures early this week

Rainfall is forecast across various regions, mostly light to moderate, though it may turn heavy at times over some northern and eastern areas. A gradual decrease in cloud cover is anticipated starting Thursday night.

Detailed five-day forecast issued

In a comprehensive weather bulletin, the NCM outlined expected conditions from Monday, March 2, through Friday, March 6, 2026. The forecast is influenced by a weak surface pressure system combined with an extension of an upper-air high-pressure system. This interaction will result in generally fair conditions at the beginning of the week, followed by periods of cloud cover and the likelihood of rain later in the week.

On Monday, March 2, conditions were fair to partly cloudy, with increasing cloud cover at times, particularly over western regions overnight. Temperatures dipped slightly along the western coasts, while humidity levels rose overnight into Tuesday morning, raising the possibility of mist formation in some western areas.

Winds remained light to moderate but strengthened at times, causing blowing dust. Sea conditions in the Arabian Gulf ranged from slight to moderate, becoming rough overnight.

Temperature ranges varied across the country. Coastal and island regions experienced highs between 28°C and 33°C, with lows between 15°C and 20°C and relatively high humidity. Inland areas were warmer, reaching highs of up to 37°C and nighttime lows near 11°C. Mountain areas recorded milder conditions, with highs around 29°C and lows near 13°C.

Rain and winds intensify midweek

From Tuesday onward, forecasters expect conditions to become more unsettled. Tuesday may see partly cloudy skies, with rainfall possible overnight and into Wednesday morning, particularly across coastal areas and islands.

Winds are expected to shift from southeasterly to northwesterly, strengthening at times over the sea and reducing visibility due to blowing dust and sand.

Wednesday is forecast to remain partly cloudy to cloudy, with scattered rainfall and a noticeable drop in temperatures. Similar windy conditions are anticipated, especially over the Arabian Gulf, where seas are expected to become rough.

On Thursday, cloudy intervals are likely to persist, with daytime rainfall possible in coastal, northern and eastern regions. Winds will remain moderate, occasionally strengthening over the sea. Rough conditions are expected in the Arabian Gulf and, at times, in the Oman Sea.

Sea conditions are forecast to become gradually rough in the Arabian Gulf from Tuesday night through Thursday. In the Oman Sea, waves will range from slight to moderate, becoming rough at times.

Conditions improve by Friday

By Friday, forecasters expect gradual improvement, with fair to partly cloudy skies returning across much of the country. Cloud cover will mainly linger over southern areas.

Northwesterly winds will continue, while sea conditions are expected to remain rough in the Arabian Gulf and moderate to rough in the Oman Sea.

Overall, the NCM said residents can expect a mix of fair weather and cloudy periods in the coming days, along with occasional rainfall and windy conditions accompanied by a noticeable drop in temperatures.

Authorities advised residents to stay updated on official weather alerts, particularly concerning dust storms, mist formation and rough sea conditions that may affect travel and marine activities.

Bitcoin falters while banks double down on crypto

Citibank has announced plans to integrate bitcoin into its core banking systems in a move aimed at making the asset “bankable”

Gulf Business
Gulf Business

02 March, 2026

Bitcoin falters while banks double down on crypto
Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro/Image: Supplied

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Bitcoin fell 15% in February, marking its fifth consecutive monthly loss, driven by geopolitical tensions. US economic data and Fed rate decisions are closely watched. Despite Bitcoin's struggles, altcoins like NEAR and Polkadot gained. Institutional adoption grows, with Citibank integrating Bitcoin and Barclays exploring blockchain for stablecoins, signaling long-term convergence of traditional finance and crypto.

Bitcoin closed February down 15 per cent, extending its losing streak to five consecutive months and marking a 48 per cent decline from its all-time high of $126,500 in October 2025.

For the first time on record, both January and February have ended in negative territory within the same calendar year. Should March also close lower, it would represent six straight monthly declines — a pattern seen only once before in Bitcoin’s history.

Simon Peters, crypto analyst at eToro, commented: “Bitcoin has started March on the backfoot amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered a broader flight from risk assets. This week’s US economic data — including ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP employment figures, and non-farm payrolls — will be closely watched ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. While markets are currently pricing in a hold on rates, softer data could increase expectations of a cut, potentially providing much-needed support to cryptoasset prices.”

Market watchers are now closely tracking macroeconomic signals, particularly US labour and services data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and, in turn, cryptoasset sentiment.

Altcoins outperform

Despite Bitcoin’s decline, select altcoins posted gains last week.

NEAR rose 17 per cent, climbing from $1.009 to $1.184 following announcements at NEARCON 2026 in San Francisco. Updates included the launch of the Near.com Super-App, which enables account management across more than 35 blockchains without manual bridging, and “Confidential Intents,” a privacy-focused execution layer for cross-chain transactions.

Polkadot (DOT) also gained 17 per cent ahead of a scheduled supply reduction on 14 March, which will cut annual token issuance by more than 50 per cent — from approximately 120 million tokens to 55 million.

Institutional momentum builds

Institutional adoption continues to gather pace despite market volatility.

Citibank has announced plans to integrate bitcoin into its core banking systems in a move aimed at making the asset “bankable.” Proposed services include institutional-grade custody, key management, wallet services, and the integration of tax, reporting and compliance workflows. The offering is expected to launch later this year.

In the UK, Barclays is reportedly exploring a blockchain platform for stablecoin payments and tokenised deposits. Earlier this year, the bank acquired a stake in Ubyx, a US-based digital money clearing system, marking its first direct investment in stablecoin infrastructure.

Together, these developments underscore the continued convergence between traditional finance and the digital asset ecosystem — even as short-term price volatility persists.

Target to remove synthetic colours from cereals by end of May

Packaged food makers such as PepsiCo, Campbell’s and Conagra Brands had announced last year that they would cut artificial dyes

Reuters
Reuters

02 March, 2026

Target to remove synthetic colours from cereals by end of May
Image credit: Getty Images

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Target will sell only cereals without certified synthetic colors by the end of May, responding to consumer demand for healthier options and a broader industry trend away from artificial dyes. This move aligns with initiatives like "Make America Healthy Again" and precedes similar commitments from brands like General Mills and retailers like Walmart. Target aims to meet customer expectations and...

Target said it would sell only cereals made without certified synthetic colors by the end of May, becoming the latest retailer to tighten standards amid a crackdown on artificial dyes.

The big-box retailer said it has worked closely with national and owned-brand partners to reformulate products where needed, and the decision applies to cereals sold both in-store and online.

Packaged food makers such as PepsiCo, Campbell’s and Conagra Brands had announced last year that they would cut artificial dyes, responding to the Trump administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” initiative and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s crackdown on ultra-processed food and chemical additives.

Read more-Tomatoes meet tech: How NRTC is using AI to slash food waste in UAE

“We know consumers are increasingly prioritising healthier lifestyles, and we’re moving quickly to evolve our offerings to meet their needs,” Cara Sylvester, Target’s chief merchandising officer, said in a statement.

Target said it will “continue evaluating opportunities where ingredient evolution aligns with guest expectations.”

The company’s decision puts it ahead of several brands on its shelves that have committed to phasing out artificial dyes on longer timelines. Among them is General Mills’ Lucky Charms, with the company expected to eliminate artificial colors in US cereals by the summer of this year.

Retail giant Walmart said in October last year it would remove synthetic dyes from its US private-label foods by January 2027.

Target, which has been facing a lengthy sales slump and attempting a turnaround under new CEO Michael Fiddelke that includes job cuts and leadership shake-ups, is set to report its quarterly results on Tuesday.

Earlier this month, the company reiterated that it expects to report fourth-quarter 2025 sales and full-year adjusted profit in line with its prior forecast.

Shares of the company were down about 2 per cent amid broader market declines.

India’s economic growth slips to 7.8%, but still leads major nation

The Indian government’s projections under the new data series marginally boosted growth for financial year ending March 31

Reuters
Reuters

02 March, 2026

India’s economic growth slips to 7.8%, but still leads major nation
Image credit: Getty Images

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India's economic growth slowed to 7.8% in Oct-Dec, driven by eased government spending and investment, yet remains the fastest-growing major economy due to strong consumption. Revised data marginally boosted growth projections for FY25/26 to 7.6%. Despite tariff challenges, India accelerates reforms. Statistical framework overhaul aims to improve accuracy using broader data sources.

India’s economic growth slowed in the October-December quarter as government spending and private investment eased, but the South Asian nation remained the world’s fastest growing major economy, helped by strong consumption.

The economy grew 7.8 per cent in October-December from a year earlier under a new data series, slowing from 8.4 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.

The Indian government’s projections under the new data series marginally boosted growth for financial year ending March 31. The economy is estimated to grow by 7.6 per cent in 2025/26, the National Statistics Office said on Friday. It had been forecast to grow by 7.4 per cent under the old data series.

Read more-Holiday Inn-owner IHG sees India as top-five market as global chains scale up

For financial year 2026/27, the country’s projected economic growth has been revised to 7-7.4 per cent under the new series, said Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran after the data was released. In his annual report released last month, the economy was projected to grow at 6.8-7.2 per cent for 2026/27.

The South Asian nation will comfortably cross the $4trn mark in the next financial year, Nageswaran said.

India attempts to overcome tariff challenges

For much of the current financial year, India’s economy has contended with uncertainty from tariffs, which have weighed on exports.

In response, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration accelerated domestic reforms, including cutting consumer taxes on hundreds of items and pushing ahead with long-delayed labour reforms.

Earlier this month, New Delhi reached an interim agreement with Washington that reduces effective tariffs to 18 per cent , easing trade tensions, although the deal has yet to be formally signed.

The US Supreme Court’s order striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs may improve India’s trade position in its upcoming interim negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump has announced a temporary 10 per cent duty on all nations, including India, and promised to raise it to 15 per cent.

Private consumption remains strong

Despite those pressures, private consumption remained strong, expanding by 8.7 per cent year-on-year in the October-December period compared with an 8 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.

Government spending rose 4.7 per cent year-on-year in October-December, down from a 6.6 per cent increase the previous quarter while private investment grew 7.8 per cent, lower than the 8.4 per cent growth a quarter ago.

Manufacturing grew by 13.3 per cent in the third quarter, compared with 13.2 per cent a quarter ago. Financial services and hospitality sectors held strong.

Growth in farm output, a sector which employs more than 40 per cent of the workforce, slowed to 1.4 per cent in the third quarter of the current fiscal year from 2.3 per cent a quarter ago.

“Service sector performance signals a strong lift, besides double-digit growth in manufacturing,” said Radhika Rao, economist at Singapore-headquartered DBS Bank.

“The October-December quarter also benefited from indirect tax rationalisation and festive demand, in addition to a better faring rural farm sector,” Rao said.

As India’s growth has remained strong, rating agency ICRA expects the central bank to keep rates on hold, with inflation likely to rise temporarily, its chief economist Aditi Nayar said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key repo rate unchanged earlier this month.

Statistical overhaul

India has overhauled its statistical framework this year, first updating the consumer price index and now revising the GDP series to better reflect structural changes in the economy.

As part of the changes, the government has widened its data sources to include Goods and Services Tax (GST) filings, corporate financial returns and digital platform data to improve coverage of economic activity.

At the core of the GDP overhaul is the shift to adopting more granular price deflation to improve accuracy. Until now, it largely deflated only input prices, with heavy reliance on the wholesale price index.

The changes are expected to address concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund last year over India’s national accounts methodology, including the outdated 2011/12 base year and reliance on wholesale prices, for which it gave the framework a “C” rating.

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