Dubai’s residential real estate market is facing a significant stress test, as the ongoing regional crisis introduces a level of caution not seen since the pandemic.

That is the central finding of a new credit analysis published this week by S&P Global Ratings, which stops short of sounding a full alarm but makes clear that the window of resilience is not unlimited.

S&P reports that official sources are recording lower transaction volumes since the conflict began. The ratings agency had already expected a moderation in Dubai’s property market, after years of rapid price appreciation, and some cooling was built into its base case. But the crisis has shifted the outlook. S&P now expects both volumes and residential prices to decline, with the severity of any correction directly tied to how long the situation persists.

The luxury and ultra-luxury segment is likely to see sentiment weaken first. S&P notes that ultra-wealthy and high-net-worth individuals who relocated to the UAE for tax or lifestyle reasons may reconsider their positions.

More broadly, the agency expects apartment prices to decline more than villa prices, citing the substantial supply pipeline already in place for apartments.

S&P also expects a shift in market activity. Presales for new developments are forecast to decline, while secondary-market supply is expected to increase as investors look to offload properties. Foreign investors holding units close to completion are specifically identified as likely sellers, a dynamic that could further suppress market values.

S&P also flags a structural feature of Dubai’s off-plan market that adds complexity. Developers have frequently sold units on aggressive payment plans, collecting about 20–25 per cent in the first year of sale, with up to 70 per cent tied to construction milestones and the remainder at handover.

While this structure allows projects to continue as long as defaults remain contained, it leaves a significant portion of future cash collection exposed to buyer sentiment and financial capacity.

The four-week threshold

S&P emphasises that the timeline that matters most. Its base case assumes the most intense phase of the conflict lasts up to four weeks, and under that scenario, it does not anticipate a collapse comparable to 2008. However, a meaningful correction becomes a realistic possibility if hostilities extend beyond that window.

The agency flags the Strait of Hormuz as a specific risk factor for the construction sector. A prolonged disruption could create bottlenecks in the supply of building materials and push up input costs through rerouting and higher fuel prices. Construction activity is currently continuing normally, S&P notes, pointing to the city’s track record of maintaining project timelines even through Covid-related disruptions.

Developers have buffers, but risks are building

One of the most closely watched questions is whether the conflict triggers outflows of residents or investment capital. S&P’s view is that structural reforms provide a degree of insulation. The Golden Visa programme, which grants foreign nationals long-term residency rights, particularly those linked to property and investment thresholds, creates what the agency describes as meaningful stickiness among residents and property owners.

Beyond the visa framework, S&P points to the government’s crisis management response as a stabilising factor. Measures to maintain safety, food security, and the normal functioning of goods and services have so far supported resident confidence. While sentiment could weaken and some expatriate departures may occur if the situation persists, S&P does not anticipate a sudden mass exodus leading to a market collapse.

S&P also raises a more immediate concern: physical risk to assets. Companies with high-value, prominent assets, including airports, ports, hotels and tourism landmarks, face elevated exposure to potential disruption. At the same time, it has observed minor damage to real estate assets caused by projectiles and debris, though not beyond repair.

For the four Dubai-based developers that S&P rates, Emaar Properties, Damac Real Estate Development, PNC Investments and Omniyat Holdings, existing regulatory frameworks and strong pre-conflict sales backlogs provide near-term protection. Dubai’s escrow regulations require cash collected on off-plan units to be held in protected accounts, with withdrawals permitted only upon verified construction milestones.

This structure, combined with multi-year revenue backlogs, provides a cushion. Emaar’s backlog covers 2.7 years of revenue, Damac’s 5.2 years, PNC’s 2.1 years, and Omniyat’s 4.8 years. Regulations also allow developers to retain up to 40 per cent of a property’s value if construction is on schedule before refunding the remainder and repossessing the unit.

During previous downturns, delinquency rates for top-tier developers ranged between 3 per cent and 10 per cent, though these could be higher for less established players. Developers that entered the current period with higher debt levels may face greater pressure, making financial discipline critical.

Liquidity and investment outlook

All four rated developers entered the current period with meaningful cash positions. As of end-2025, each held escrow balances sufficient to cover construction costs. Emaar held $11.7bn in escrow and $7.5bn in available cash and liquid investments, while Damac held $6bn in escrow and $1.7bn available.

However, S&P distinguishes within the group. PNC and Omniyat have less financial flexibility than their larger peers, with comparatively lower available cash positions and additional funding needs linked to land payments and prior debt-funded acquisitions.

Debt maturities are described as manageable, with no immediate refinancing pressure. Damac and Omniyat issued $600m sukuks in February and March 2026, respectively, while PNC Investments and Omniyat raised $1.25bn and $900m, respectively, in 2025.

S&P highlights that Emaar faces broader pressures than its residential-focused peers, including declining hotel occupancy, reduced footfall in malls and lower revenues from entertainment assets. It also carries the largest planned capital expenditure, estimated at Dhs10–11bn annually in 2026 and 2027, though a portion remains flexible.

Developers are expected to recalibrate investment decisions. Projects nearing completion will likely proceed, while new land acquisitions and discretionary investments may be postponed. For Damac, Omniyat, and PNC, capital expenditure beyond existing commitments is limited.

On dividends, S&P expects Damac to distribute $1.5–1.6bn in 2026, while Omniyat’s dividend outflow is projected at Dhs30–50m. Dividend decisions for Emaar and PNC remain subject to board review but are expected to stay elevated relative to historical levels.

The broader picture

S&P frames its analysis around scenarios rather than certainties, highlighting the unpredictability of the conflict’s duration and impact. Dubai’s property market enters this period in a stronger position than in past cycles, supported by tighter regulation, stronger developer balance sheets and a more stable resident base.

However, the agency’s conclusion is clear: the longer the conflict persists, the more pressure will build on prices, sentiment and liquidity, increasing the likelihood and severity of a market correction.

All data, analysis and projections referenced in this article are sourced from S&P Global Ratings’ credit report published March 16, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Read: Dubai property activity rebounds while equity sell-off deepens amid regional tension

Dubai’s Rental Disputes Center (RDC), in partnership with Dubai Police, has launched a new integrated digital system aimed at streamlining judicial processes and enhancing service efficiency across the emirate’s rental sector.

The initiative is part of Dubai’s broader digital transformation agenda and is designed to accelerate case handling, improve coordination between entities, and simplify administrative procedures for residents and businesses.

The system was unveiled during an official ceremony at RDC headquarters, attended by senior officials from both entities, including Major General Hareb Mohammed Al Shamsi, Deputy Commander-in-Chief for Criminal Affairs at Dubai Police.

The platform introduces a unified digital framework that connects processes related to rental disputes, enabling faster execution procedures, improved payment processing, and seamless integration between enforcement actions and criminal procedures.

It also facilitates secure, real-time data exchange between relevant government departments, significantly reducing processing times and enhancing the overall user experience.

Judge Abdulqader Mousa Mohammed, Chairman of the Rental Disputes Centre, said: “This project marks a qualitative leap in the development of judicial practices in the emirate. The RDC remains committed to adopting innovative digital solutions in line with Dubai Government’s vision of regional and global leadership in digital governance. The e- payment and integration system reinforces the effectiveness of our services related to the rental and real estate sector, reflecting our shared pledge with Dubai Police to simplify and expedite operations, while ensuring the highest standards of organizational and governmental performance.”

Major General Hareb Al Shamsi, Deputy Commander-in-Chief for Criminal Sector Affairs, added: “The constant cooperation with the Rental Disputes Center exemplifies advanced institutional integration between government entities and demonstrates Dubai Police’s commitment to boosting judicial and criminal services through cutting-edge technology. The digital linkage program represents a key step toward faster, more efficient solutions, supporting Dubai’s vision of setting leading governance standards based on innovation and continuous improvement.”

The system is expected to enable real-time monitoring of transactions and improve the delivery of services across Dubai’s judicial and administrative ecosystem, reinforcing the emirate’s push toward fully digitised government operations.

Qatar has officially announced the Eid Al Fitr holiday schedule, offering clarity for both public and private sector employees as the festive period approaches.

The decision, issued by the Amiri Diwan, outlines a week-long break for government entities, while private sector workers will observe a shorter holiday period, a Qatar News Agency report said.

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According to an official statement, the Eid holiday for ministries, government agencies, and public institutions will begin on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, and run through Monday, March 23, 2026, with employees resuming duties on Tuesday, March 24, 2026.

Private sector and financial institutions

Separately, the Ministry of Labor confirmed that private sector employees will receive a three-day paid holiday. “The Eid Al-Fitr holiday for employees in private sector establishments subject to the Labor Law will be three days with full pay,” the ministry stated.

The ministry added that employees required to work during the holiday will be compensated in line with overtime provisions. Meanwhile, Qatar Central Bank will determine holiday dates for financial institutions and markets under its supervision.

Five Iron Golf Dubai has announced a limited-time offer granting free access to its outdoor mini-golf course, as the city’s leisure operators roll out promotions to capture spring break and Eid holiday demand.

The indoor sports and entertainment venue is offering unlimited complimentary mini-golf from March 17 to April 30, opening its nine-hole outdoor course to residents and visitors at no cost.

Located at The Westin Dubai Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina, the venue overlooks Dubai Marina and is positioned as a casual leisure destination for families and social groups during a period when many residents are expected to remain in the city.

The initiative aligns with a broader trend across Dubai’s hospitality and leisure sector, where operators are introducing value-driven experiences to boost footfall during seasonal lulls and holiday periods.

Visitors can access the course on a walk-in basis, with the venue also offering food and beverage packages to drive ancillary spend — a common strategy among leisure operators balancing free-entry concepts with revenue generation.

Five Iron Golf Dubai joins a growing list of attractions across the emirate offering complimentary or discounted experiences during the school holiday window, as competition intensifies for domestic leisure spending.

Read: Eid staycation deals: 5 luxury UAE hotels offering discounted stays

Stocks climbed in Asian trading on Tuesday, pressing for a second day of gains as investors confronted a crowded central bank calendar and an unrelenting Middle East conflict.

Markets are on edge, trying to price in the economic damage from US President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and the policy reaction it could trigger.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 1.1 per cent, led by a 2.3 per cent gain for South Korea’s Kospi, while Japan’s Nikkei was flat. S&P 500 e-mini futures slipped 0.5 per cent.

On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1.0 per cent to snap a four-day losing streak on gains for AI stocks, though the index remains 3 per cent below its level before the conflict began.

“The rally still has the feel of a positioning squeeze rather than the start of a new directional trend,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “I remain reluctant to buy dips at this stage.”

Brent crude rose 3.4 per cent to $103.58 a barrel after several US allies rebuffed Trump’s call on Monday to send warships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for a fifth of global energy shipments. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also arrested 10 foreign individuals accused of spying in the country’s northeast, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia voted to hike interest rates for a second time this year, taking its benchmark rate to 4.1 per cent, but the 5-4 vote was enough of a close call to put its next move in doubt. The Australian dollar gave up gains after the decision and was recently trading flat at $0.7073.

It is the first major central bank to meet this week, setting the tone ahead of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan as they assess the global economic impact of the Iran war, even though all are expected to stand pat on policy.

The Bank for International Settlements on Monday urged policymakers not to rush reactions to the Iran crisis-driven spike in global energy prices, calling it a textbook case of when to “look through” a supply shock.

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 99.1 per cent probability that the US central bank will remain on hold at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The Federal Open Market Committee “is likely to defer action until it becomes clear whether the output or price effects are dominant,” said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered in New York.

“We would be surprised if the FOMC indicated a strong direction on the impact of the war, as it has no way of knowing how long the war will last or whether the biggest response will be on activity or inflation.”

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 2.5 basis points at 4.2434 per cent.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, edged up 0.2 per cent to 100.02 after snapping a four-day streak of gains on Monday.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.2 per cent to 159.41 per dollar, just shy of the crucial 160 level despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities on Tuesday.

Analysts expect the bar for an intervention to be higher because of rising oil prices. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that underlying inflation was gradually accelerating toward the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

Gold prices held steady, up 0.3 per cent at $5,022.28. Bitcoin BTC=slipped 0.2 per cent to $74,073.11, while ether was down 1.5 per cent at $2,309.69.