Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and easing energy costs after US President Donald Trump suggested the crisis in the Middle East could end soon.

Respite from a potential conflict-driven surge in inflation would likely reduce the chances of central banks raising interest rates, a positive for non-yielding gold.

Spot gold rose 0.8 per cent to $5,179.52 per ounce, as of 0233 GMT US gold futures for April delivery rose 1.7 per cent to $5,188.70.

The dollar fell 0.4 per cent, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices rose “due to the news flow from US President Trump himself, stating that there is a potential for de-escalation… So what we could see is that potential inflation expectation starts to tone down given this dramatic fall in oil price,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil prices drop after Trump’s comments

Oil prices fell over 10 per cent after Trump said the wconflict in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Trump also warned that US strikes could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The crisis has effectively shut the Strait, stranding tankers for over a week and forcing producers to halt output as storage fills up, sending energy prices soaring.

Gold prices dropped on Monday

Gold prices fell on Monday as higher energy costs fanned inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for a near-term cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Gold is seen as an inflation hedge, but low rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding it as a zero-yield asset.

Markets are now awaiting the US consumer price index for February, due on Wednesday, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge –
on Friday.

Spot silver rose 3 per cent to $89.60 per ounce. Spot platinum was up 1.2 per cent at $2,208.16 and palladium gained 0.2 per cent to $1,693.84.

Air New Zealand said on Tuesday it has raised all of its fares due to the Middle East conflict and may take further pricing action, underscoring how global airlines will seek to pass on the costs of higher oil prices to passengers.

Jet fuel prices, which were around $85 to $90 per barrel prior to the conflict, have increased sharply to between $150 and $200 per barrel in recent days, New Zealand’s flag carrier said, adding it was suspending its financial outlook for 2026 due to uncertainty over the conflict.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has sent oil prices surging, upending global travel and sparking fears of a deep travel slump and the potential for the widespread grounding of planes.

In an emailed response to Reuters, Air New Zealand said it had raised one-way economy fares by NZ$10 ($5.92) on domestic routes, NZ$20 on short-haul international services and NZ$90 on long-haul flights.

While airfares have spiked on Asia-Europe routes due to airspace closures and capacity constraints, Air New Zealand is one of the first airlines to announce broad increases to ticket prices since the start of the war.

“If the conflict leads to continued elevated jet fuel costs, we may need to take further pricing action and adjust our network and schedule as required,” the carrier said.

As oil prices soar, Vietnam Airlines has asked local authorities to remove an environmental tax on jet fuel to help it maintain operations. The Southeast Asian nation’s government said Vietnamese airlines’ operating costs have risen 60 per cent to 70 per cent due to the rise in jet fuel prices and fuel suppliers were facing difficulties in meeting airline demand.

Air New Zealand said there was currently no disruption to jet fuel supplies in New Zealand, but it was working closely with suppliers and the government to monitor developments.

Airline shares stabilise after sell-off

In a move that lifted some airline stocks, US President Donald Trump said on Monday the war could be over soon, sending oil prices down to around $90 a barrel on Tuesday from a high of $119 on Monday.

In Asia, airline shares showed signs of stabilising, with Air New Zealand up 2 per cent, Korean Air Lines rising 8 per cent, Australia’s Qantas Airways gaining 1.5 per cent and Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific up more than 4 per cent. All had recorded sharp drops on Monday.

Cathay Pacific already has fuel surcharges in place, such as $72.90 each way on flights between Hong Kong and Europe and North America, which it kept flat last month. The airline said on Tuesday it reviewed the surcharges on a monthly basis, primarily taking into account movements in jet fuel rather than oil prices, and made adjustments where appropriate.

Fuel is the second-largest expense for air carriers after labour, typically accounting for a fifth to a quarter of operating expenses. Some major Asian and European airlines have oil hedging in place, but U.S. airlines largely stopped the practice over the last two decades.

High oil prices and airspace closures due to the war are pushing airline tickets on some routes sky-high and forcing people to reconsider travel plans.

Conflict takes toll on travel industry

High fuel prices could have severe implications for the global travel industry, with airlines already navigating tight airspace as pilots reroute to avoid the Middle East conflict and capacity on popular routes fills up.

Combined, Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad normally fly about one-third of the passengers from Europe to Asia and more than half of all passengers from Europe to Australia, New Zealand and nearby Pacific Islands, according to Cirium.

South Korea’s HanaTour Service 039130.KS said it has been cancelling group tours that include flights to the Middle East and it is waiving cancellation fees for affected customers. All Middle East-related tours for March will be suspended, it added.

In Thailand, the Ministry of Tourism forecast that if the conflict drags on for more than eight weeks, the country will lose a total of 595,974 tourists and 40.9 billion baht ($1.29 billion) in tourism revenue.

Asian stocks rallied and oil prices plunged at the start of trading on Tuesday, following a volatile session for markets overnight after US President Donald Trump declared the Middle East war could be “over soon.”

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 2.6 per cent, paring losses since the start of the conflict, while Brent crude futures fell as much as 10 per cent to below $90 per barrel as trading resumed. US equity futures were more muted, with S&P 500 e-mini futures down 0.2 per cent to pare Monday’s rebound.

Trump‘s remarks injected a burst of optimism that contrasted sharply with events in Iran, where hardliners rallied behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a pointed show of defiance.

The competing signals whipsawed global markets on Monday: oil prices initially spiked and stocks on Wall Street tumbled before rebounding sharply after Trump‘s comments and fresh reports suggesting Washington may soften sanctions on Russian energy.

“While all of this has helped ease some of the short-term panic, it’s hard to reconcile the idea of the conflict being ‘very complete‘”, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney.

“Nonetheless, the toning down of President Trump‘s rhetoric, from demanding full surrender to declaring the mission ‘very complete‘, is a welcome development that should help settle nerves for today’s session in Asia, at least.”

With investor confidence steadying after Monday’s selloff amid signs of increased risk-taking by retail investors, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.6 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi surged 6.4 per cent. The gains prompted the Korea Exchange to trigger a sidecar trading curb after futures rose more than 5 per cent, halting programme trading for five minutes.

The backdrop for markets remained tense, however, with Iran’s military warning that it would step up its missile strikes in a further sign of defiance.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social afterwards.

US Treasury bonds recovered after Monday’s spike in oil prices sparked an inflation scare and fuelled expectations that central banks in Europe could tighten policy later this year.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was down 2.3 basis points at 4.109 per cent as traders pushed out bets on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut, with the first reduction now not seen until July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“We are still at troubling levels,” analysts from ING said, referring to bond yields. “Expect nominal yields to fall for a bit on a reversal trade. But don’t expect a dramatic structural rally in bonds,” they wrote in a client note. “Remember, we still have clear inflation impulses to overcome, and the economy is down but not out.”

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major peers, retraced all of its gains of the past week and was trading down 0.1 per cent at 98.79.

Gold was down 0.1 per cent at $5,133.55, holding within its trading channel of the past week, while cryptocurrencies remained directionless, holding the same range they have tracked since the beginning of February.

Bitcoin was up 0.2 per cent at $69,127.60, while ether was down 0.4 per cent at $2,018.69.

Saudi Arabia began oil output cuts, becoming the latest Gulf producer impacted by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that has halted ship traffic in the region, sending crude prices up nearly 30 per cent on Monday to $119 a barrel and prompting G7 countries to consider releasing emergency oil stocks.

Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco has begun cutting output at two of its oilfields, two sources said, adding to earlier reductions by Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE as shipments continue to be blocked and they run out of storage.

The sources did not provide further details and the company declined to comment.

G7 finance ministers discussed releasing emergency oil stocks and a final decision could be taken by the seven countries’ leaders later this week. The G7 groups the US, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which coordinates energy policies of Western and some other industrialised nations, holds over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks and a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks.

The Iran crisis has already cut global oil supply by a combined 200 million barrels over the past 10 days, according to analysts’ estimates.

Adding to market jitters was Iran’s naming of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s supreme leader, which cooled hopes of a quick end to hostilities.

Over the weekend Iraq cut output at its main southern oilfields by 70 per cent to 1.3 million barrels per day, three industry sources said, while Kuwait Petroleum Corp began cutting output on Saturday and declared force majeure.

In Bahrain, Bapco Energies declared force majeure following an attack on its refinery complex, the company said.

Oil prices hit their highest level since 2022 at more than $119 a barrel on Monday, although they later pared gains.

Saudi Arabia is diverting crude exports by pipeline to the Red Sea while Iranian threats of attack keep traffic into and out of the Gulf at an almost complete standstill. Hundreds of tankers sit idle inside the Gulf and just outside its southern Strait of Hormuz.

Emergency oil reserves release

US President Donald Trump, who returned to power last year pledging to deliver cheaper energy costs for Americans, sought to downplay concerns about rising US gasoline prices, which were up 11 per cent on the week on Friday.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the president to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Japan, which imports around 95 per cent of its oil from the Middle East, has instructed a national oil reserve storage site to prepare for a possible crude release.

Governments are wary of the inflationary impact of soaring energy costs, with President Lee Jae-myung announcing South Korea’s first price caps on fuel in nearly 30 years.

Elsewhere, Vietnam removed import tariffs on fuels and Bangladesh shut universities to conserve electricity and fuel.

China has asked refiners to halt fuel exports and to try to cancel shipments that were already committed.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, has also halted exports.

Even if the US places ships in the Strait of Hormuz to defend shipping, the route would remain “too dangerous”, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published on March 6.

President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Cyprus on Monday, said France was deploying about a dozen naval vessels to the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and potentially the Strait of Hormuz as part of defensive support to allies threatened by the crisis.

S&P Global Ratings expects the current regional conflict affecting the Gulf to ease within weeks, even as it reaffirmed Abu Dhabi’s sovereign credit rating amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

In a research update published on March 6, the ratings agency affirmed ‘AA/A-1+’ long- and short-term sovereign ratings with a stable outlook for both the UAE and the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, placing them among the strongest sovereign credits globally.

Abu Dhabi’s large sovereign wealth assets and fiscal buffers underpin the UAE’s overall credit profile and provide a significant cushion against geopolitical shocks. The AA rating places Abu Dhabi among the world’s strongest sovereign credits, just one notch below the highest possible AAA rating.

A separate note from S&P on Abu Dhabi’s rating highlighted how recent developments have affected the outlook.

“Our current expectations are that regional war — and threats to Abu Dhabi’s key infrastructure — will recede after a few weeks, and a period of recovery will be enabled by the authorities’ strong balance sheet and willingness to resume stability,” S&P said.

The assessment comes during one of the most volatile periods in the region in recent years, following escalating military exchanges between Iran and several countries in the Gulf.

S&P said Abu Dhabi’s financial strength remains a key stabilising factor, with the emirate’s large fiscal and external buffers expected to help absorb potential economic shocks linked to the conflict.

“Our base-case scenario remains that Abu Dhabi’s substantial fiscal, economic, external, and policy flexibility will act as an effective buffer against the impacts of regional conflict,” the agency added.

The outlook from S&P broadly echoes commentary published by Moody’s last week on the GCC insurance sector, in which the ratings agency said it expects the current conflict to be relatively short-lived.

Moody’s said its baseline scenario assumes the military escalation would likely last no more than four weeks, limiting the longer-term economic impact on regional financial institutions and insurers.

Read more: Ratings agency Moody’s expects Iran conflict to be “relatively short-lived”

Despite its relatively optimistic outlook on the duration of the conflict, S&P warned that the escalation could still weigh on economic activity in the near term.

The agency said the “intensity and scope of Iranian military action will reduce growth and weaken external and fiscal performance over 2026.”

Sectors such as tourism, trade, supply chains and financial services could experience temporary disruptions if tensions persist, while investor and consumer confidence may also be affected.

Even so, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign balance sheet remains one of the strongest globally. S&P estimates the government’s net asset position will reach about 358 per cent of GDP in 2026, providing a substantial buffer against external shocks.

The agency also noted that infrastructure damage so far appears limited despite recent attacks targeting parts of the region.

Overall, S&P said the emirate’s strong fiscal position, large sovereign wealth assets and track record of policy stability should help it navigate the current geopolitical shock and support a recovery once tensions ease.