Nuclear’s next chapter: EU charts EUR241bn path to decarbonised energy future

As Europe accelerates its green transition, the European Commission has laid out an ambitious roadmap that positions nuclear energy as a central pillar of its long-term decarbonisation strategy.

According to the latest Nuclear Illustrative Programme (PINC) released by the commission, the European Union (EU) will require EUR241bn in nuclear investments by 2050 to meet its energy and climate commitments under the REPowerEU Plan and the Clean Industrial Deal.

The report underscores a critical message: nuclear power is not fading — it’s evolving. While public opinion and national energy policies remain divided, the EU’s projections signal a net increase in nuclear capacity, from 98GW today to 109 GW by 2050, with an upper-range scenario anticipating up to 144GW.

Nuclear energy a bedrock

Currently accounting for 23 per cent of the EU’s electricity mix, nuclear energy remains a bedrock of low-carbon power generation.

“To truly deliver the clean energy transition, we need all zero- and low-carbon energy solutions. Nuclear energy has a role to play in building a resilient and cleaner energy system. Ensuring the necessary framework conditions will allow the EU to keep its industrial leadership in this sector while also upholding the highest safety standards and responsible management of radioactive waste,” said Dan Jørgensen, Commissioner for Energy and Housing, in a statement.

Yet, the landscape is fragmented: countries like Germany and Belgium are phasing out nuclear, while others — such as France, Hungary, and Finland — are doubling down on next-generation reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs).

The PINC report acknowledges this diversity but calls for greater alignment and infrastructure investment to realise the collective benefits of nuclear.

EU aims to be decarbonised by 2040

Looking ahead, over 90 per cent of Europe’s electricity is expected to be decarbonised by 2040. Achieving this milestone, the commission argues, will require nuclear to complement intermittent renewables like wind and solar by offering stable baseload power.

As energy demand rises with the electrification of transport, heating, and industry, the resilience of nuclear becomes even more vital.

However, the scale of investment required is daunting. To bridge the funding gap, the commission urges a blended financing model that leverages both public and private capital, coupled with risk-mitigation mechanisms to improve investor confidence.

These could include loan guarantees, state aid frameworks, and EU-backed financial instruments tailored to large-scale nuclear projects.

While the debate over nuclear’s role in a clean energy future continues, the EU’s latest projections make one thing clear: without nuclear, Europe’s path to net zero will be longer, costlier, and less secure.

As the bloc confronts geopolitical instability, energy price volatility, and climate urgency, the commission’s blueprint stakes a bold claim: a decarbonised Europe will be part nuclear-powered — or not at all.

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