The US nearly turned into a net crude exporter last week for the first time since World War Two, as shipments surged close to a record high to meet demand from Asian and European buyers scrambling to replace Middle East supplies cut by the Iran war.
The US and Israel’s war with Iran has triggered the largest ever disruption to the global energy market, as Iranian threats to shipping stopped around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Refiners in Asia and Europe that depend on those supplies have turned to alternative cargoes wherever possible, sharply boosting demand for US oil — the world’s largest producer.
However, analysts and traders say the US is rapidly approaching its export capacity.
Net imports of crude oil — the difference between imports and exports — narrowed to 66,000 barrels per day last week, the lowest on record in weekly data going back to 2001, according to US government figures released on Wednesday. Exports climbed to 5.2mn bpd, the highest in seven months.
On an annual basis, the US was last a net exporter of crude in 1943, the data showed.
Rising US crude exports highlight how Atlantic Basin and Asian buyers are reaching further for supply, with regional price differences offsetting higher shipping costs, said Rystad vice president of oil markets Janiv Shah.
Countries such as Greece have snapped up US crude for the first time in recent months.
About 2.4mn bpd — or 47 per cent of US exports last week — sailed towards Europe, according to ship tracking service Kpler. Around 1.49mn bpd, or 37 per cent, headed to Asia, up from 30 per cent a year ago.
Top buyers included the Netherlands, Japan, France, Germany and South Korea.
A vessel carrying 500,000 barrels of crude signalled it was en route to Turkey, which would mark the first US export to the country in at least a year, Kpler data showed.
Soaring Brent makes US crude more attractive
Imports into the US, meanwhile, dropped by more than 1mn bpd to 5.3mn bpd last week. The US still imports significant volumes as its refineries are designed to process heavier, more sour grades than the light, sweet crude it produces.
The disruption to Middle East supplies pushed the premium for Brent crude futures over US West Texas Intermediate to as much as $20.69 a barrel last month. This reduced US demand for imports while making US crude more attractive to refiners in Europe and Asia.
Physical crude cargoes for prompt delivery to Europe hit a record near $150 a barrel on Monday, while African grades also reached new peaks, according to LSEG data and traders.
Exports nearing capacity
US exports are likely to reach about 5.2mn bpd for April, Kpler analyst Matt Smith said, adding that shipments are pushing up against capacity limits on a monthly basis.
The US can export as much as 6mn bpd, traders and analysts said, citing limited pipeline capacity and vessel availability. Exports previously hit a record 5.6mn bpd in 2023, government data shows.
“The market is already testing the export ceiling with 5.2mn bpd exported last week. Every incremental barrel from here costs more in freight and logistics than the last,” said Bekzod Zukhritdinov, a Dubai-based oil trader.
A release of medium sour crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could push more light, low sulphur US grades into export markets, Shah added. However, a shortage of tankers and rising freight rates could limit further growth.
About 80 empty supertankers were heading to the Gulf of Mexico as of Wednesday, likely to load crude through April and May, according to Vortexa analyst Rohit Rathod.