Major stock indexes plunged in Asia on Monday as US President Donald Trump showed no sign of backing away from his sweeping tariff plans, and investors bet the mounting risk of recession could see the Federal Reserve cutting rates as early as May.

Futures markets moved swiftly to price in almost five quarter-point cuts in US rates this year, pulling Treasury yields down sharply and hampering the dollar on safe havens.

The carnage came as Trump told reporters that investors would have to take their medicine and he would not do a deal with China until the US trade deficit was sorted out. Beijing declared the markets had spoken on their retaliation plans.

“The only real circuit breaker is President Trump’s iPhone and he is showing little sign that the market selloff is bothering him enough to reconsider a policy stance he has believed in for decades,” said Sean Callow, a senior FX analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney.

Read more: Saudi stocks plunge by $133bn in biggest fall since 2020

Investors had thought the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth and the likely body blow to the economy would make Trump reconsider his plans.

“The size and disruptive impact of US trade policies, if sustained, would be sufficient to tip a still healthy US and global expansion into recession,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan, putting the risk of a downturn at 60 per cent.

“We continue to expect a first Fed easing in June,” he added. “However, we now think the Committee cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0 per cent.”

S&P 500 futures slid 3.5 per cent in volatile trade, while Nasdaq futures dived 4.4 per cent, adding to last week’s almost $6 trillion in market losses.

The pain likewise engulfed Europe, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 3.6 per cent, while FTSE futures lost 2.3 per cent and DAX futures 4.0 per cent.

Japan’s Nikkei sank 6.6 per cent to hit lows last seen in late 2023, while South Korea dropped 5 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell a gut-wrenching 7.5 per cent.

Chinese blue chips lost 6.3 per cent, as markets waited to see if Beijing would respond with more stimulus. Taiwan’s main index, which had been shut on Thursday and Friday, tumbled nearly 10 per cent, leading policymakers to curb short selling.

All of emerging Asia was also under water, with India’s Nifty 50 sinking 4 per cent.

The gloomier outlook for global growth kept oil prices under heavy pressure, following steep losses last week.

Brent fell $1.35 to $64.23 a barrel, while US crude dived $1.395 to $60.60 per barrel.

Read more: Trump tariffs: More than $5tn wiped off markets in two days

Never mind inflation

The flight to safe havens saw 10-year Treasury yields drop 8 basis points to 3.916 per cent, while Fed fund futures jumped to price in an extra quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.

Markets swung to imply around a 54 per cent chance the Fed could cut as soon as May, even though Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank was in no hurry on rates.

That dovish turn saw the dollar slip another 0.5 per cent on the safe-haven Japanese yen to 146.16 yen, while the euro held firm at $1.0966. The dollar shed 0.6 per cent on the Swiss franc, while the trade-exposed Australian dollar dropped a further 0.4 per cent.

Investors were also wagering that the imminent threat of recession would outweigh the likely upward shove to inflation from tariffs.

US consumer price figures out later this week are expected to show another rise of 0.3 per cent for March, but analysts assume it is just a matter of time before tariffs push prices sharply higher, for everything from food to cars.

Rising costs will also put pressure on company profit margins, just as the earnings season gets underway with some of the big banks due on Friday. Around 87 per cent of US companies will report between April 11 and May 9.

“We expect during upcoming quarterly earnings calls fewer companies than usual will provide forward guidance for both Q2 and full-year 2025,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

“Rising tariff rates will force many companies to either raise prices or accept lower profit margins,” they warned. “We expect negative revisions to consensus profit margin estimates in coming quarters.”

Even gold was swept up in the selloff, easing 0.3 per cent to $3,026 an ounce.

The drop left dealers wondering if investors were taking profits where they could to cover losses and margin calls on other assets, in what could turn into a self-feeding fire sale.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, on Sunday slashed crude oil prices for Asian buyers in May to their lowest in four months, following a recent shock decision by the OPEC+ oil group to speed up oil output hikes.

State oil company Saudi Aramco cut the May official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude by $2.30 to $1.20 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai prices, a pricing document from the producer showed.

Read-Saudi stocks plunge by $133bn in biggest fall since 2020

The drop marks the biggest decline in more than two years and is the second consecutive month Aramco has lowered its prices, Reuters record of Saudi OSPs showed.

The company also lowered May prices for other grades it sells to Asia by $2.30 per barrel.

Decision of OPEC+ countries

Eight OPEC+ countries in a surprise decision agreed on Thursday to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, triple the expected increase, representing around 0.4 per cent of global supply.

The news, together with an escalating global trade war, sent oil prices plunging nearly 11 per cent in the week ending April 4, hitting more than three-year lows.

Prior to the latest decision by OPEC+, analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected Arab Light for Asia to be cut by $1.80 to $2, tracking the steep declines in benchmark prices in March.

The spot premium of Dubai averaged $1.38 per barrel in March, down from $3.33 per barrel, the average in February. The drops were also due to more Russian supply returning to Asia, following disruptions in January and February caused by US sanctions on Russian energy trade.

The tables below show the full free-on-board (FOB) prices for May in US dollars.

Vortex Energy, part of the private equity business of EFG Hermes, an EFG Holding company, and the leading investment bank in the MENA, is driving sustainable growth with strategic investments in energy transition globally.

As the global shift toward a net-zero future gains momentum, Vortex Energy is expanding its reach and scope to cover wider energy transition sectors and geographies. Launched in 2014, it has built an impressive portfolio of companies that operate in wind, solar, electric vehicle changing, hydrogen and batteries globally, strategically expanding its assets under management.

In this interview, Bakr Abdel-Wahab, CIO of Vortex Energy, delves into how the platform has solidified its position in the energy transition market and discusses the future plans to encompass sustainable digital infrastructure investments.

Tell us more about Vortex Energy and what are your key priorities for growth going forward?

We launched with a focus on renewable energy investments in Europe, recognizing 2 key drivers: the push for energy security and diversification of energy sources, as well as meeting global climate net zero targets and EU green directives.

We began with 3 funds, with AUMs that peaked at around €1.3bn, or approximately $1.4bn. The journey started with identifying an opportunity in France, where we created Vortex I. We acquired a 49 per cent stake in a portfolio of wind assets operated by EDPR – one of the world’s largest owners and operators of wind power at the time. The investment amount was c.€170m, primarily funded by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds.

A year later, we launched Vortex II, a €560m investment covering 664 MW of operating and under construction wind assets in Spain, Portugal, France, and Belgium. These investments were underpinned by long-term feed-in-tariffs and PPAs, generating double-digit internal rates of return (IRRs) in an environment of low interest rates. The rationale behind these investments was their robust electricity tariffs, yielding steady cash flows and stable regulatory frameworks.

For instance, Portugal at the time was sub-investment grade, but we anticipated a credit rating upgrade as part of the investment rationale. Spain was recovering from retroactive regulatory changes, but we saw value due to the quality of the operator and site-specific advantages.

By 2017, we launched Vortex III, focusing on solar assets in the UK under the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) scheme, which provided government-backed incentives. We acquired 24 operating and under construction solar assets outright from SunEdison, an operator which later was undergoing bankruptcy, enabling us to secure a competitive deal. This was a £500mn deal funded by Malaysian institutional investors and managed by our London-based asset management team.

Between 2019 and 2020, we exited Vortex I and II to JP Morgan Infrastructure and Vortex III to a Malaysian utility, achieving returns of 13-15 per cent IRR. This marked a successful phase of astute origination, financial engineering and operational optimisation, culminating in top quartile returns for our investors.

Vortex has undergone significant transformations. How did your strategy shift after 2020?

Post-2020, the global industry landscape changed. In response to this, we began taking on development risks and shifted toward investing in development platforms and companies versus projects and portfolios. This approach transformed us into a private equity-style investor, funding not only project development but also company growth.

We also noticed emerging trends such as decarbonisation, electrification of transport, and advancements in energy storage. This broadened our focus from renewable energy to the broader concept of energy transition, including e-mobility, battery storage, and hydrogen.

In response, we launched Vortex IV in 2021, an energy transition-focused fund and co-investment vehicle with $400m in AUM. It was backed by a wide range of investors, including Abu Dhabi SWFs, global asset managers, and European family offices. Since 2022, we’ve made two significant investments:

1-Ignis Energy: A renewable energy platform with +12 GW globally, with operations in Spain, Italy, UK, USA, Peru, and the Philippines. It covers solar and wind development, operations, energy management and green hydrogen.

2-EO Charging: A UK-based company specialising in EV charging for fleets and buses, serving clients like Amazon and DHL in UK and USA. This aligns with our focus on scalable and captive charging solutions.

Looking ahead, could you launch ‘Vortex V’? Added to this, are there any emerging trends you’re observing in the market?

While we haven’t officially labelled it Vortex V, we are exploring opportunities in data centres, particularly in Spain, leveraging synergies with Ignis’ renewable energy assets. Madrid is an emerging city in the digital space and strategically located data centres are increasingly sought after by hyperscalers such as Google and Amazon. We are fine tuning this investment programme at present.

We’re also planning an emerging markets climate fund targeting Central and Southeast Europe, Latin America, and Africa. This fund will focus on renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and circular economy initiatives, addressing the global south’s growing demand for sustainable infrastructure. We have identified 2 early deals to seed this fund. We are excited about this initiative which follows the COP 28 recommendations.

How have government-backed incentives changed, and how does that impact your strategy?

Feed-in tariffs have largely been phased out. The current landscape revolves around private corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) and government auctions. Corporate PPAs often offer higher returns, but declining renewable energy prices are challenging project economics in certain markets like Germany. As a result, we’re focusing on markets with greater growth potential, green power shortfall and supportive policies.

How does Vortex Energy differentiate itself from other financial investors in the sector?

Our unique selling proposition lies in our hybrid investment approach, combining private equity-style investing with infrastructure characteristics. We’re hands-on, focusing on a few portfolio companies to drive value through growth initiatives and cost optimisation.. Additionally, our Abu Dhabi presence ensures we continue our close collaboration with investors; reinforcing trust and alignment.

Lastly, what are the biggest challenges to achieving global net-zero targets, and how can Vortex Energy contribute to this transition?

Achieving net-zero requires, amongst other areas, scaling renewable energy capacity drastically, but this must be paired with structural changes to power markets. Low power prices, because of cannibalisation, for renewables can hinder development in certain countries. Energy efficiency is another key pillar – reducing losses, focusing on smart energy management and improving grid stability through AI and technology.

Gold prices fell to a more-than-three-week low on Monday amid a wider market sell-off, continuing their retreat as investors dumped bullion to cover their losses in other trades on fears of a global recession due to an escalating global trade war.

Read-Gold prices extends gains: What’s next for investors?

Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent at $3,027.90 an ounce as of 0331 GMT, after dropping over 1 per cent earlier in the session to its lowest since March 13.

US gold futures rose 0.4 per cent to $3,047.50.

Gold dropped more than 3 per cent on Friday, caught up in the market’s spiral after US President Donald Trump’s bigger-than-expected tariff measures rippled across global markets.

Investors selling off bullion

The drop in gold, usually a safe haven during uncertain times, made dealers speculate that investors might be selling off bullion to realise profits and potentially cover losses or margin calls on other assets.

“There’s a lot of confusion and uncertainties in the markets about whether there is room for de-escalation ahead, given that tensions are at an extreme right now, with many still struggling to see any quick resolution for now,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.

“While some weakness in prices could be due to profit-taking, resilience still seems to be the broader theme, with safe-haven flows offering some cushion amid the market volatility.”

US tariffs

China on Friday struck back at the US tariffs imposed by Trump with a slew of counter-measures including extra levies of 34 per cent on all US goods and export curbs on some rare earth metals.

Global recession fears wiped out nearly $6tn in value from US stocks last week and caused Japan’s Nikkei share average to tumble nearly 9 per cent early on Monday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said tariffs increased the risk of higher inflation and slower growth, highlighting the difficult path ahead for policymakers at the US central bank.

Saudi Arabia’s stock market suffered its steepest single-day decline in five years on Sunday, wiping out over $133bn in value amid rising geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices.

The benchmark Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) tumbled over 6 per cent — more than 700 points — to below 11,200. It marked the largest daily fall since May 2020, triggered by a sell-off following a fresh trade war sparked by new US tariffs.

Read more: Full list: Trump’s tariffs on every country, including the UAE, Saudi

US President Donald Trump announced a 10 per cent blanket tariff on Gulf imports effective April 5, describing it as a move to correct “unfair trade practices.” China, Europe, and other major economies responded with retaliatory duties. The global tit-for-tat sent oil prices tumbling to four-year lows, dragging markets across the Gulf and beyond.

Saudi Aramco bore the brunt of the rout, shedding $90bn in market capitalisation as its shares dropped 6.2 per cent. Other heavyweight stocks including Al Rajhi Bank, ACWA Power, and Saudi National Bank also declined between 5–6 per cent. Trading volumes hit SR2.2bn within the first 30 minutes of trading, focused largely on Aramco, Al Rajhi, and STC shares.

Across the Kingdom, 34 companies listed on TASI and the parallel Nomu index hit all-time lows. These included names like Herfy Foods, Takween, Entaj, and First Mills. The Nomu index itself slumped 5 per cent, snapping a five-day winning streak, with 13 companies hitting record lows.

The shock extended across the region. The Kuwait Stock Exchange plunged 6.6 per cent, while Qatar’s index fell 5.5 per cent, with both experiencing their worst sessions since the early pandemic era. Muscat dropped 2.1 per cent and Bahrain declined by around 2.5 per cent. UAE markets were closed for the weekend and are expected to react when trading resumes this morning.

Further afield, Egypt’s EGX 30 slid 3.6 per cent, triggering automatic halts on 11 stocks. Jordan’s market fell 2 per cent.

Globally, the S&P 500 lost nearly $2tn in market value on Friday, sliding around 5 per cent in its worst day since the COVID-19 panic.

Trump’s move to raise US tariffs to historic highs has ignited fears of wider disruption to global trade and supply chains, with analysts warning that the economic fallout could be deep and protracted.