The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects changes over the next 10 years.
The world’s top three economies, the US, China and Japan, are forecast to remain in the same relative positions for the next 10 years. But by 2022 the Chinese economy, currently 53 per cent of the size of the US economy, is predicted to be 83 per cenr of the size of the US economy and catching up fast.
One of the unexpected results of this year’s WELT is that Brazil, which just managed to squeeze past the UK in 2011, has in fact fallen back behind the UK in 2012 as a result of the weakness of its currency, the real. It is not forecast to overtake again until 2014. Over the rest of the period to 2022, Brazil moves up another place in the League Table, overtaking Germany and France but being overtaken in turn by India.
Indians, saddened by their cricket team’s loss to England, may take heart from the table that shows the Indian economy overtaking the UK economy in 2017 and reaching no 4 position in the world by 2022.
Russia rose from 11th position in the league table in 2010 to 9th in 2011. In 2013, it starts overtaking large Western European economies and is predicted to reach the no 7 position by 2022.
Fast-growing Indonesia is one of this year’s shooting stars. Currently (2012) the world’s 16th largest economy, it is forecast to rise six places to enter the world’s top 10 in 2022. Other Asian economies also move up the ranking. Thailand goes up six places from No 30 in 2012 to No 24 in 2022; Taiwan from 27th to 20th and Korea from 15th to 12th.
European countries fall back. Germany falls from No 4 in 2012 to No 6 in 2022 and the UK from 6th to 8th. But the biggest fallers in Europe are France, which is forecast to fall from 5th to 9th, and Italy from 8th to 13th. By 2022, the Italian economy will be close to falling behind economically powerful emerging markets like Turkey and Mexico.