Global oil demand growth will accelerate next year as the world economy expands and will again be met by rising supplies from the United States and Canada, further eroding OPEC’s market share, the West’s energy watchdog said on Friday.
But the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that risks to oil production in several regions remained acute.
“Supply risks in the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high,” the IEA said. “Oil prices remain historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet.”
“Whether in crude or product markets, there is little room for complacency,” it added.
North Sea Brent crude oil hit a nine-month high above $115 a barrel in June as a Sunni Islamist insurgency swept across northwestern Iraq, taking control of large parts of the oil producing country and shutting down its largest refinery.
The oil market has weakened over the last month but remains nervous about further supply shocks. Brent was trading at around $108.20 a barrel by 0730 GMT on Friday.
Making its first forecasts for 2015 in a monthly report, the IEA which advises major consuming nations on energy policy, said it expected global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up from 1.2 million this year.
“Newly industrialised and emerging market economies are once again forecast to lead the gains,” it said.
It said it expected nonOPEC supply growth to average 1.2 million bpd next year, in line with expansions in 2013 and 2014.
“The U.S. and Canada remain the mainstays for growth, but sources are expected to be more diverse than in 2014.”
The U.S. shale oil boom has eroded the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in recent years and the trend will likely continue next year, it said.
The IEA forecast demand for OPEC crude would edge down in 2015 to 29.8 million bpd, from 29.9 million this year. That is slightly below the level pumped by the group in June at just over 30 million bpd.